National Football League

NFL Week 2 odds: Why the Seahawks, Chiefs and more are your best bets

Published Sep. 17, 2021 4:13 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

What can we look for in NFL Week 2?

Kansas City to dominate in Baltimore again and for Seattle to build on a solid Week 2 performance.

Here are my four favorite bets on this week's slate (with all odds via FOX Bet).

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Baltimore Ravens

My favorite wager of the weekend begins with the Chiefs.

For the fourth year in a row, the Chiefs meet the Ravens with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. And for the fourth year in a row, Mahomes will tear apart the Ravens' secondary, and the Chiefs will blow out Baltimore.

While the Chiefs have only covered one of the three previous meetings (the contest last season), that game doesn't tell the story of this matchup. In 2019, the Chiefs were up by 17 points in the fourth quarter before some Lamar Jackson arm punts were caught, bringing the final score within the cover.

Let's explore why the Chiefs own this series and why I'm confident it will continue on Sunday night.

We have to start with Mahomes, who plays his best games against this Ravens defense. In three starts against Baltimore, Mahomes is averaging 378 yards passing per game. Yes, you read that correctly. He's passing for nearly 400 yards a game while completing 70% of passes against what is usually a tough defense for quarterbacks.

Mahomes has dominated the Ravens because of their predictability on defense, something we saw on Monday night against the Raiders. Baltimore loves to pressure, and its major point of attack is zero pressure.

Zero pressure is an all-out blitz, with any defender not guarding a receiving option sprinting at the quarterback. In theory, this forces the QB to get rid of the ball quickly. This usually means the quarterback will either throw it short or make a wild pass that lands incomplete.

When you're playing "Joe Smith" making his first start in the NFL, this defense is legit. But it's crummy when you're playing this Chiefs offense. Kansas City has many receiving options that can win against man coverage and a quarterback who knows where his answers are.

And if you're thinking, "Why don't the Ravens call a different defense"? Well, they don't. They are stubborn. This style is what Wink Martindale is going to call on defense. It's what his players are best at executing. And no matter the situation, like the game-winning throw on Monday night for Derek Carr, the Ravens are going to call their defense and hope for the best.

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The one factor in this game that makes me a tad concerned about the Chiefs is their offensive line playing on the road for the first time this season. Kansas City has five new starters on their line, including three rookies. This game will be their first opportunity to play on the road against a defense that does test your pass protection rules with their pressures.

If the Ravens want to hold Mahomes in check, they will need to use this to their advantage. Baltimore will attempt to confuse the blocking unit by moving guys late in the play clock and spinning pressures from the other side.

The Chiefs' defense is being overlooked with all the attention given to Mahomes' success in this matchup. That unit has played exceptionally well against the Ravens in their three previous meetings.

In 2018, the Ravens scored 24 points. In 2019, it was 28, but again, the Ravens had 13 entering the fourth quarter. Last season, the Chiefs allowed 20 points.

The K.C. defense has this Ravens offense figured out. Even while trailing for most of those three games, Jackson is only averaging 170 yards passing.

The Chiefs also welcome back pass-rusher Frank Clark and safety Tyrann Mathieu. Both impact players missed the team's Week 1 victory over the Browns.

Baltimore's offensive line struggled against the Raiders on Monday night and now will be without their left tackle. There are not many options to make it solid again before they face the Chiefs this weekend.

I could see this game getting ugly early, with the Ravens allowing big scores to the Chiefs offense and the Kansas City defense getting after Lamar.

PICK: Kansas City (-4) to win by more than 4 points to cover at FOX Bet

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)

It's easy to overact to a Week 1 game, but I'm doing it here for good reason. Last Sunday, the Seattle Seahawks went on the road and won a tough game, a spot they've struggled with in the past.

There was no weird end-of-game situation. The Seahawks didn't blow a late lead only to have Russell Wilson save them. They dominated that game from the first whistle.

And the reason for this change lies with their new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He is from the Shanahan/ McVay tree, and you could see his influence on that offense in Week 1.

Seattle went heavy play-action pass, increasing their usage by almost 20% from last season. Play-action pass equals easy completions for Wilson, and with Metcalf and Lockett as his weapons, that equals big plays.

Now, the Seahawks face a Titans defense that appears to be just as awful as last season. The Arizona offense had its way with the Tennessee defense, which converted more than 50% of third-down attempts, and Kyler Murray threw for nearly 300 yards. The Titans' defense got almost no pressure on Murray, an issue they haven't improved upon from last season.

The Tennessee offense was even more alarming than its defense, which struggled mightily in its first game minus former offense coordinator Arthur Smith (now in Atlanta).

Todd Downing is calling plays, and he went away from the Titans' bread and butter with Ryan Tannehill – the play-action pass.

Tannehill is fantastic when throwing after a run fake. The Titans used play-action passes more than any other team in the NFL last season. However, on Sunday, they went play-action only 5% of the plays!

"But Geoff, they will get back to it this week!"

Are you sure?

The team had all offseason to prepare to play Week 1 and came out with this offensive philosophy. It would seem odd that Downing would flip the switch to play-action passes after spending months on this offense.

Adding to the play-calling mess is the Titans' poor offensive line, especially Taylor Lewan. Hey, I'm sure his tweet after the game will surely fix their OL issues.

Seattle's defensive line sacked Carson Wentz three times, plus pressured him another 10 opportunities last weekend. Look for more of the same in this game.

Lastly, the fans are back in the stands. Let's keep it real: Playing in Seattle is a pain in the ass. It's freaking loud. And the worse you play, the louder the stadium gets.

Lumen Field will be rocking as the Seahawks win this going away.

PICK: Seattle (-5.5) to win by 6 or more points to cover at FOX Bet

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Shocker! Carson Wentz is still not good at playing quarterback, and after a lackluster Week 1 performance, where he threw for 5.2 air yards per attempt, he's in for another challenging game against this Rams defense.

The Colts saving grace might be their run game, as the Rams' rushing defense finished Week 1 last in efficiency. But the Indianapolis rushing attack won't be enough to keep this game close, especially against this high-functioning Rams offense, which looked completely different with Matthew Stafford running the show instead of Jared Goff.

The Colts have only covered one of their last seven games at home, and while this number has jumped big since the Rams' dominating Sunday night win, the Rams should win by four or more in this spot.

PICK: Rams (-4) to win by more than 4 points to cover at FOX Bet

Bounce-back teaser at FOX Bet

Browns 12.5 -> 6.5
Packers 11 -> 5

This Browns number is large, and I think they could have a hangover early in this game due to that Chiefs loss. However, Cleveland is the better team at every position, which is why I'll take them here under a touchdown.

The Green Bay Packers got embarrassed last weekend, losing 38-3 to the New Orleans Saints. They are a veteran team and will bounce back against a Detroit Lions team that made a furious comeback to make their loss to the San Francisco 49ers look closer than it was. Let's not forget the Lions were down 41-17 in the fourth quarter.

The Packers will dominate on Monday Night.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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