National Football League

Sportsbooks win big in NFL Week 3 thanks to Cardinals, upsets

Updated Oct. 1, 2023 6:06 p.m. ET

Saturday's college football odds market featured some give-and-take between bettors and bookmakers, even factoring in a huge windfall for the house when Colorado got trucked by Oregon. Sunday, though, was a more one-sided story.

Oddsmakers at multiple sportsbooks cited a very strong day in the NFL Week 3 odds market, thanks in no small part to a trio of upsets. That included a quite unexpected Arizona Cardinals victory over the double-digit-favorite Dallas Cowboys.

Time for a recap of the weekend that was in football betting.

Let's dive in.

Praising Arizona

As Sunday's 4:05 p.m./4:25 p.m. ET kickoffs loomed, SuperBook executive director John Murray was less than optimistic. The two largest underdogs of the week, the Cardinals and Chicago Bears, were playing in that window. The SuperBook's day — and the betting public's day, for that matter — would greatly hinge on those outcomes.

"Our best-case scenario is to see K.C. or Dallas lose outright this afternoon," Murray said, while noting that was a far-flung scenario.

But a few hours later, the Cardinals finished off a stunning 28-16 victory as 12.5-point home underdogs to the Cowboys.

"That was huge for us," Murray said shortly afterward, followed by this: "If the Steelers can win, this would be a great day."

So, guess what? Pittsburgh followed suit as a 3-point underdog at Las Vegas. The Steelers notched a 23-18 victory, ruining the Raiders' home opener.

"It was a really good day for us. The Steelers capped it off nicely. But Cowboys-Cardinals was the big win," Murray said.

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Texans and Colts Jolts

Arizona's victory killed countless moneyline parlays and teasers tied to Dallas — those that remained, anyway — in the wake of two upsets in the early window of games.

The Houston Texans, 7.5-point underdogs at Jacksonville, rolled over the Jaguars 37-17. And the Indianapolis Colts, also 7.5-point road ‘dogs at Baltimore, nabbed a 22-19 win on a field goal with just 1:09 remaining in overtime.

"The Texans, Colts and actually the Bills were good results for us here," Murray said.

Buffalo thumped Washington 37-3, in a line that got as low as Commanders -5.5 as kickoff approached Sunday.

BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini concurred that the Texans and Colts helped make for a big day behind the counter.

Pros and Cons

At BetMGM Nevada, the sportsbook operator's Las Vegas market, Sunday's NFL results put the book in the black after a break-even Saturday. Yes, like practically every other sportsbook across the nation, BetMGM Nevada won huge on Oregon trouncing Coach Prime and Colorado 42-6.

But that was really the lone Saturday highlight, as bettors scrambled to win back some money.

"We basically broke even. We won on Colorado, but not much more," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said.

However, the large majority of bettors took a bath in the NFL odds market.

"We had another solid NFL Sunday. The trend continues of the public getting us on Saturday and then giving it all back and then some on Sunday," Shelton said, while noting the masses of public/recreational bettors are due for a strong NFL week. "This won't last long, so we will take the ‘W’ this week and try to remember it when things go the bettors' way in the coming weeks."

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Survivors Ready — Or Not?

It wasn't just traditional NFL bettors who got beat over the head Sunday. Those in NFL Survivor pools took it in the shorts as well.

Circa Sports offers a massive NFL Survivor contest each year in Las Vegas. This year's Circa Survivor drew 9,267 total entries at $1,000 apiece for a total prize pool of $9.267 million. Heading into Week 3, the field was down to 5,924.

But the Week 4 upset losses of Jacksonville, Baltimore and Dallas brought about a huge whittling-down.

A total of 2,421 entries — nearly 41% of the 5,924 remaining — took the Jaguars against the Texans. Between the Jags, Ravens and Cowboys losses, 57.5% of the remaining field was cleared out. Heading to Week 4, of the original 9,267 entrants, only 2,507 remain (27%).

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Not every major wager gets reported by sportsbooks. Every week, many six-figure bets are kept under wraps, primarily if a customer — even if not identified — doesn't want that bet publicized.

But sportsbooks can sometimes tap dance around it. Such was the case this week. One oddsmaker noted that the Commanders took two significant six-figure plays at +6.5 and +6 against the Bills. Further, Washington saw a low-six-figure bet and two mid-five-figure bets on the moneyline +225.

That all ended up back in the hands of the bookmaker. As noted above, Washington got rolled at home 37-3.

Among known wagers, here are few reported by Caesars Sports:

– $110,000 Seahawks -6.5 vs. Panthers. Bettor profits $100,000, for a $210,000 total payout.

– $220,000 Ravens -8 vs. Colts. Loss.

– $165,000 Wake Forest -3.5 vs. Georgia Tech. Loss.

– $220,000 Wisconsin -5.5 at Purdue. Bettor profits $200,000, for a $420,000 total payout.

– $70,000 Purdue +6 vs. Wisconsin. Loss.

And in that Oregon rout of Colorado, a couple of BetMGM customers didn't mind laying three touchdowns with the Ducks. There was a $45,000 play and a $38,500 play on Ducks -21. Both of those were easy winners. The first bet profited $40,909, for an $85,909 total payout; the second bet profited $35,000, for a $73,500 total payout.

Me, on the other hand? I was dumb enough to make an in-game #ChilisMoney bet on Colorado +28 during the first half, thinking my alma mater could still keep it within four touchdowns (it was 35-0 at halftime). But that's why you keep it reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Enjoy the Monday Night Football twin bill.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas