Oakland Raiders: Marshawn Lynch's Mindset Will Dictate Potential Fit
Nov 2, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) rushes against the Oakland Raiders during the second quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Should the Oakland Raiders aggressively pursue retired running back Marshawn Lynch? What are the pros and cons to acquiring the 30-year-old ball-carrier?
After a relatively uneventful start to NFL free agency, the Oakland Raiders hit the news cycle with a bombshell, reportedly showing interest in retired running back Marshawn Lynch, per ESPN's Adam Schefter and Josina Anderson:
For now, Oakland would have to trade for Lynch because his NFL rights remain the property of the Seahawks, as he has two years remaining on his contract. Seattle general manager John Schneider and Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie have a long-standing relationship, as they worked together in the Packers' front office.
As you can imagine, the news consumed social media, and Raiders fans envisioned a scenario in which a hometown icon would don the silver and black colors for two seasons behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.
On Thursday, running back Latavius Murray signed with the Minnesota Vikings, which opened a spot for a bruising back in the Raiders backfield. Ball-carrier Adrian Peterson has expressed interest in suiting up for the Raiders, but the team has yet to host a visit with him:
On #Raiders and Adrian Peterson: Source said interest level is more on his end to join team than theirs.
— Adam Caplan (@caplannfl) March 8, 2017
Oakland can also look toward the draft to fill Murray's vacancy, but the reports about Lynch have validity. However, the process looks to be in its beginning stages without much movement at the moment, per CBS Sports reporter Jason La Canfora:
On the other side, there's major potential interest and production left in Beast Mode, per Huffington Post reporter Jordan Schultz and FOX Sports' Peter Schrager:
Marshawn Lynch grew up a huge #Raiders fan and has told me before how much he loves the silver and black.
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) March 17, 2017
Here's a fun one. From a source close to Marshawn Lynch: "He's BeastMode. He's got a lot left in a very big tank."@gmfb @NFLonFOX
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) March 17, 2017
What are the pros and cons to acquiring Lynch? What's the best way to address the backfield?
Jan 17, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch on the field with a training mask prior to facing the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Divisional round playoff game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
If Traded, Lynch Carries Hefty Hit
Technically, the Seahawks still own the rights to Lynch, and he carries a steep price tag for a 30-year-old running back, per Spotrac:
Should Marshawn Lynch return, he remains under contract w/ the #Seahawks w/ cap hits of $9M/$10M thru 2017. His $5M dead cap remains in '16.
— Spotrac (@spotrac) September 9, 2016
Schefter and Anderson also confirmed the price tag, saying, "Under terms of his existing contract, Lynch would be in line for a $9 million salary and cap hit in 2017."
Without a doubt, Lynch would have to structure his deal. What do you give a 30-year-old running back, who may be in football shape but hasn't taken a hit since early 2016? Well, the Seahawks signed running back Eddie Lacy to a one-year, $5.5 million deal with $3 million guaranteed and monthly weight clauses, per ESPN's Field Yates:
While playing, Lacy hasn't been in the best shape, and his production dropped over the past two seasons. He accumulated 1,118 rushing yards and three touchdowns in that span.
Murray, the Raiders former featured ball-carrier, signed a three-year, $15 million deal. He can void the contract after one season to test the market again, if he meets certain statistical thresholds, per Pioneer Press reporter Chris Tomasson.
On a restructured deal, or if the Seahawks do the Raiders a favor and release Lynch, it would be ideal to sign him to a one-year contract with incentives that could push him to approximately $5 million.
Senior ESPN writer Mina Kimes and Schefter, in his report above, made reference to Lynch's ever-changing mindset:
It's perfectly fine to change your mind, but the Raiders should also tread with caution. Due to Beast Mode's unpredictability and his age, a year-to-year situation prevents contract complications.
Sep 13, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) scores on a two-point conversion against St. Louis Rams linebacker Akeem Ayers (56)] during the second half at the Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Lynch Led League in Rushing Touchdowns Between 2013-14
Lynch earned the name Beast Mode through his last few years in Seattle. He attacked the goal line more than any other running back between the 2013-14 seasons. In that span, he scored 25 touchdowns and rushed for 2,563 yards.
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The Raiders have two smaller ball-carriers in DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard; they need a bigger tailback who can take hits and move the ball in short-yardage situations. Lynch checks both boxes.
In his final year behind the Seahawks' poor offensive line, Lynch only played seven games due to injury. He returned to action against the eventual NFC Champion Carolina Panthers but only amassed 20 yards on six rush attempts. He announced his retirement in February 2016.
At his best, Lynch provides what the Raiders need in their backfield. He's a power runner, who can pick up blitz protections. Nonetheless, it's questionable whether he's able to take a year off, come back as Beast Mode and serve as a solid pass protector against talented edge-rushers in the AFC West division.
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Lynch is in good football shape, which indicates he's still equipped to endure some hits:
Marshawn Lynch is in shape. He's thought about playing. Raiders are interested. But would the #Seahawks actually trade him? We'll see.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 17, 2017
The Raiders need a big back who can protect quarterback Derek Carr just as good as he's able to punch the ball through the goal line. Oakland can't afford to lose its centerpiece during a playoff push. As we all know, that's not a pretty picture for the Silver and Black.
Jan 17, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) reacts during the second quarter against the Carolina Panthers in a NFC Divisional round playoff game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Lynch's Desire to Grind
Let's look back at Lynch a year ago when asked about playing for his hometown NFL team on CBS' 60 Minutes:
Again, Lynch may have a change of heart after sitting out a season. However, as a football team on the rise, a general manager should want a player who absolutely wants to suit up on Sundays, Thursdays and Mondays. The Raiders will also travel to Mexico City for a matchup against the New England Patriots in 2017.
Fans often forget the NFL season is a grind, it's more than just game day. For players, it's about practices, traveling for four or five months. Oftentimes, the athletes walk away from the obligations that you don't see on game day.
Head coach Jack Del Rio isn't going to excuse Lynch from practices and team functions just because of his status. He's going to be expected to grind out the season with his teammates. Furthermore, in a physical role, such as a bruising back, one must have a passion for the game. Between the jaw-rattling hits and body soreness 24-72 hours after banging bodies, it's about his mindset as much as physical conditioning.
If Lynch returns, he must be all in or else you'll see a watered down version on the field. It's one thing when a player isn't picked up by a team but wants to play—it's another situation when a player says he's done with football and needs some convincing to return to the game.
Nov 15, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) rushes against the Arizona Cardinals during the fourth quarter at CenturyLink Field. Arizona defeated Seattle, 39-32. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Fresh After Year Off
Based on conventional wisdom, Lynch should return refreshed and ready to play football. He's been off the field for more than a year, and there's probably spring in his step.
Yet, as we know, an athlete in great shape differs from an athlete in active playing condition. It's safe to say, Beast Mode didn't have to cut through running lanes, break through tackles from large men or partake in football activities over the past year.
Despite missing nine games during the 2015 season, he doesn't carry the same wear and tear as Jamaal Charles or Peterson. Unlike those two distinct ball-carriers, Lynch had a year to recover from lingering injuries. His mindset isn't cluttered with signing the most lucrative deal because he's reportedly careful with his money and seems to live well without NFL checks.
With fresh legs, a clear mind and a full bank account, Lynch wouldn't be pressed about his future after football. Technically, he's already experienced his post-football life. His former teammates have also commented on his uplifting nature as a good guy in the locker room.
Smiles, Skittles and short-yardage touchdowns—what more could the Raiders ask for?
May 13, 2016; Alameda, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders coach Jack Del Rio (left) and general manager Reggie McKenzie during rookie minicamp at the Raiders practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Final Conclusion
So, what's the verdict? Should the Raiders sign Lynch and cause a mini eruption in the Bay Area?
Ideally, the Raiders can draft a 220-plus pound ball-carrier in the fourth round and pay him a small blip on the payroll. It's always best to spend money on the offensive line. The Raiders have proved how that works out. Someone toss offensive guard Gabe Jackson extension money after Carr and edge-rusher Khalil Mack.
Is Murray a top-tier ball-carrier in this league? Probably not, but he produced like one of the best behind quality run blocking. Pay attention to his production behind a subpar group in Minnesota. The offensive line will always be the engine for an NFL rushing offense. Very few running backs have the ability to overcome poor run blocking.
Of course, the Raiders wouldn't ask Lynch to shoulder the load and run for 1,000 yards, but Oakland would likely have to give into Seattle's demands in a trade. So, the Raiders would lose a potential asset, likely a draft pick, that could eventually become a long-term replacement for Murray.
Even before trade talk ensues, the Raiders have to make sure Beast Mode has a full commitment to playing out the season at his best. Will Lynch look forward to retirement after a few hard hits in the trenches? Again, a running back must have the desire as much as the physical capabilities to endure the NFL grind. Many players, including Lynch, have retired early because of their mindsets, not a broken down bodies.
Oakland wouldn't have to consider passion for a 22-year-old running back coming out of college as much as a soon-to-be 31-year-old back coming out of retirement.
Nonetheless, if the Raiders insist on acquiring Lynch, it should be on a one-year deal or a two-year contract front-loaded with guaranteed money. It's not a guarantee that he'll return as the dominant short-yardage runner that we're accustomed to watching in the recent past. Regardless, McKenzie should draft a running back in April and take advantage of a deep class.
For the Silver and Black, adding Lynch would be a huge morale boost, specifically for a fanbase grappling with the Vegas cloud. Nonetheless, technically-sound roster building for a Super Bowl bid would also uplift the franchise.
McKenzie must avoid the emotional decision and make the best personnel move. Beast Mode could be a beneficial asset for a year or two, but the Raiders shouldn't ignore a running back class flourishing with talent.
Stats provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
