National Football League

NFL odds: Betting Browns to win AFC could pay off, Cowherd says

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 1:45 p.m. ET

Now that the Cleveland Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, what impact will the quarterback have on their chances, and odds, of reaching the Super Bowl?

And what will the Browns do with holdover QB Baker Mayfield?

After having a career-best 2020 season in which he passed for 4,823 yards and 33 touchdowns, Watson was unhappy with the front office and coaching staff changes. At the end of that season, he requested a trade from the Texans.

However, Houston did not immediately adhere to those wishes, and as a result of the Watson-Texans stalemate, the three-time Pro Bowler did not play a snap in 2021.

Now, Watson is facing civil suits from 22 women who accused him of sexual misconduct. As a result, he's also facing a disciplinary-action NFL suspension. The total number of games he will miss is anyone's guess

"You obviously acquired him based on a holistic, long-term view," FOX Sports host Colin Cowherd said. "You didn't get him for September. You have to bake in an understanding of, today until Thanksgiving is hopefully the ugliest, noisiest, worst part of the Deshaun Watson story.

"My guess is a six-game suspension."

The Browns also added another weapon by trading last week for Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper, a four-time Pro Bowl player.

After the Watson trade, Cleveland's odds of winning the AFC North Division dropped from +300 to +185 (currently +225). The team's chances of winning the AFC also moved, and currently sits at +1000 (bet $10 to win $110).

FOX Sports betting analyst Jason McIntyre pointed out the Browns were 11th in defensive efficiency last season, before adding weapons in Watson and Cooper. Cleveland's Super Bowl odds shortened from +4000 to +1700 (currently +2000).

"I don't think it's a bad bet," Cowherd said of the Browns winning the AFC North. "You're not going to start well. Deshaun's not going to play in September. You can just bake that in. Does he play in October? Good chance. But Kareem Hunt got an eight-game suspension, so I think it's very likely in an increasingly tough division, Jacoby Brissett is your quarterback. That can be 0-4, depending on your schedule. I do think offensively they are wildly talented. It's a fantasy team — Cooper, Deshaun, (David) Njoku, (Nick) Chubb."

What about the Browns winning it all?

"I don't think it's a Super Bowl team," Cowherd said. "I think it's too combustible, too noisy, 22 civil lawsuits still, just too much noise. Green Bay was the noisiest team last offseason — one and done (in playoffs). Cleveland's talented but they've got a long way to go."

BROWNS' ODDS TO WIN (at FOX Bet)*

AFC North: +225 (bet $10 to win $32.50)
AFC Title: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110)
Super Bowl: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210)

* = as of 3/22/2022

Which leads us to the next question. What about Baker Mayfield? Despite the legal issues clouding Watson's future, the Browns decided to bring in the former Clemson star, which means Mayfield's days in Cleveland are numbered.

The Browns are trying to trade the top pick of the 2018 draft but have yet to find a taker. If the Browns release Mayfield, it would result in an $18.86 million salary-cap hit.

Mayfield lobbied for a trade to the Colts but Indianapolis acquired QB Matt Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons.

"Baker has been punitive to Baker. I think he's hurt Baker," Cowherd said. "Let's be honest: If Baker had Matt Ryan's personality, the Colts would have Baker, he's younger and cheaper. … Baker is going to demand answers, like, it was interesting to watch him say, 'I want to be traded to the Colts.' It's not the transfer portal.

"I think Baker thinks the world's out to get him. I would say, Baker has harmed Baker's career more than anyone else."

Is Watson the missing piece for the Browns? If you are ready to wager on Watson and the Browns having success this season, head over to FOX Bet now.

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