National Football League

NFL odds Week 11: How to bet Panthers-Ravens, pick

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 2:13 p.m. ET

The Carolina Panthers are heading to Maryland to square off against the Baltimore Ravens in a Week 11 NFL matchup.

The Panthers are fresh off a 25-15 victory against the Atlanta Falcons, while the Ravens are coming off a Week 11 bye.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Panthers-Ravens game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and insight from Warren Sharp (odds via FOX Bet):

Baker Mayfield named Panthers starting QB vs. Ravens

Skip Bayless explains why they believe the Panthers are going back to Baker instead of Darnold.

RELATED: Week 11 lines, odds

Panthers at Ravens (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Ravens -13 (Ravens favored to win by more than 13 points, otherwise Panthers cover)
Moneyline: Ravens -714 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $11.40 total); Panthers +450 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $55.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 41.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The Carolina Panthers have played four games against top-15 defenses.

Aside from a nice 21-3 completely unexpected upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the results of those games:

37-15 loss to the 49ers
24-10 loss to the Rams
42-21 loss to the Bengals

The Baltimore Ravens have played three games against below-average offenses. The results of those games:

24-9 win over the Jets
37-26 win over the Patriots
27-13 win over the Saints

Now the Panthers, with Baker Mayfield, will take their No. 29 offense up against the Ravens. It will be the easiest offense the Ravens have played all season.

And after playing the second-toughest schedule of pass offenses on the year, the Ravens will face the 32nd-best pass offense of the Panthers.

This should be a field day for the Ravens defense going up against Baker Mayfield, who owns the NFL’s worst completion rate (57%) and ranks 39th in EPA/att.

We have a clear edge to the Ravens to start this game.

The Panthers have scored a touchdown on 4-of-54 (7.4%) first-half drives, 31st in the league, while the Ravens have allowed a touchdown on 7-of-49 (14.3%) of opponent drives in the first half, No. 2 in the league.

Additionally, the Ravens have posted the following halftime margins:

Up 10-3 at NYJ
Up 28-7 vs. MIA
Up 14-13 at NE
Up 20-10 vs. BUF
Tied 10-10 vs. CIN
Up 10-7 at NYG
Up 13-10 vs. CLE
Down 10-3 at TB
Up 14-3 at NO

At home, the Ravens have played the Dolphins, Bills, Bengals and Browns offenses. Those teams rank second, fifth, sixth and eighth in efficiency.

And the Ravens still held them to seven, 10, 10 and 10 first-half points while leading in three of the four games.

Lastly, the Ravens are a very atypical run offense.

The Panthers run defense ranks sixth vs. early-down RB runs, allowing -0.13 EPA/att and 4.0 YPC.

But the Ravens run primarily from 12 and 22 personnel.

On the season, 86% of the Ravens early-down RB runs come from 12 or 22 personnel.

And the Panthers rank No. 30 defending these runs, allowing +0.09 EPA/att and 5.6 YPC.

And specifically, against 12 personnel, they are the worst run defense in the NFL.

In Baker's last five starts vs. the Ravens, he is 1-4, completing 58% of his passes, averaging 6.2 YPA with 8 TDs, 4 INTs and -0.01 EPA/att.

As mentioned above, all the metrics point towards Baltimore. It’s tough to lay such a large number with the Ravens, but I absolutely wouldn’t want to take the points with the Panthers.

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