National Football League

NFL odds Week 14: How to bet Buccaneers-49ers

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 2:22 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) play at the San Francisco 49ers (8-4) on Sunday in an NFL battle of division leaders.

The 49ers, who are expected to start third stringer Brock Purdy at quarterback, lead the all-time series 18-7, winning the last time the teams met (31-17 in 2019).

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Buccaneers-49ers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

How devastating is Jimmy G's broken foot for 49ers?

Nick Wright and Chris Broussard discuss San Francisco's quarterback situation with Jimmy Garoppolo out for the season with a broken foot.

Buccaneers at 49ers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: 49ers -3.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Buccaneers cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -182 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.49 total); Buccaneers +140 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 37.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

This had the feel of a high level playoff game … before Jimmy Garoppolo broke his foot and was lost for the season.

Brock Purdy looked fine closing out the Dolphins game, but that was at home when Miami wasn’t ready for his skill set. Tampa Bay carries a much better defense and this is a homecoming for Tom Brady, who is from the Bay Area. The 49ers are on a short week, having played on Monday Night Football, and they do have to travel across the country.

This is a massive coaching mismatch, with Kyle Shanahan going against struggling Todd Bowles. And the 49ers loaded defense should dominate this game at the line of scrimmage, especially if Tristan Wirfs (ankle/knee) can’t return.

Byron Leftwich has to change his philosophy of first down runs and playing conservative with the greatest QB in NFL history. I would wait for the flat 3 points, and then take the 49ers. Since it’s not available at the time of writing, I’ll go with under 37.5, which is significantly down from the 41.5.

PICK: Under 37.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Nick explains here is NO WAY the Bucs can move the ball vs. 49ers in Week 14

Nick explains he just doesn’t see how the Bucs will be able to move the football and is fine with laying the (-3.5).

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

Since Jimmy Garoppolo joined the team in 2017, San Francisco has averaged 0.07 EPA per snap with him in the game.

That ranks second in the NFL.

With Garoppolo off of the field over that span, San Francisco is averaging -0.08 EPA per snap.

That ranks No. 31 in the NFL.

The offense literally has gone from second-best to second-worst without him on the field.

There is a reason the 49ers are 38-17 with him and 9-29 without him since 2017.

This is a game with two offenses that have played some terrible defenses of late.

The 49ers have played just two defenses that rank above average this season:

10 points scored vs. the No. 7 Broncos in a loss
13 points scored vs. the No. 15 Saints in a win

Now they are playing the No. 8 Bucs defense, and doing so without Jimmy G.

But on the other side of the ball, the same is true for Tom Brady’s Bucs.

They have played just three games against top-15 defenses this season:

18 points scored vs. the No. 13 Steelers in a loss
22 points scored vs. the No. 9 Ravens in a loss
19 points scored vs. the No. 1 Cowboys in a win

The key to this game when the Bucs have the ball is coaching and quick throws.

The Bucs cannot afford to run the ball on first down as they’ve done in the past. The 49ers have the NFL’s second-best run defense and the Bucs have the NFL’s 30th-run offense.

And the Bucs have that third-worst run offense despite playing the ninth-easiest schedule of run defenses. The last three run defenses they’ve faced were ranked No. 20, 24 and 31.

Now they’re playing the second-best run defense in the League.

Byron Leftwich MUST refrain from running the ball on early downs.

On second and third downs with 8-plus yards to go, Tom Brady ranks No. 31 in YPA and No. 24 in EPA/dropback.

They must avoid obvious passing downs.

Instead, pass the ball underneath on early downs with Brady’s NFL fastest time to throw.

On first downs, Brady ranks seventh in EPA/att and eighth in success rate.

For the 49ers, the key is actually quite similar. With an inexperienced QB like Brock Purdy, they must be efficient enough on early downs to avoid obvious passing downs. How they choose to balance that against a top-10 pass and run defense will be a challenge for Kyle Shanahan, but they have to make life as easy as possible for the inexperienced Purdy.

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