National Football League

NFL odds Week 14: How to bet Patriots-Cardinals

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 2:25 p.m. ET

The New England Patriots are heading to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals in a Week 14 NFL matchup.

The Patriots are coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills, while the Cardinals are well rested after a bye.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Patriots-Cardinals game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

RELATED: Week 14 lines

Patriots at Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

Point spread: Patriots -1.5 (Patriots favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Cardinals cover)
Moneyline: Patriots -133 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.52 total); Cardinals +105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

The Patriots have to neutralize yet another elite wideout.

Bill Belichick’s vaunted defense was shredded the last two games by Justin Jefferson (nine grabs, 139 yards, one TD) and Stefon Diggs (seven grabs, 92 yards, one TD). Both guys basically got whatever they wanted down the field and I expect that pattern to continue against Nuk Hopkins on Monday night.

Mobile quarterbacks have given New England serious issues, too. Losses against Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Josh Allen prove that point in spades. Kyler Murray can be hit or miss, but if the Cardinals keep him on the move, the Patriots will struggle against Murray and Hopkins.

Arizona is also a top-10 defense against the run. So you’ll likely need Mac Jones to make plays down the stretch with his arm. Hard pass.

PICK: Cardinals (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

Kyler Murray met Bill Belichick once in his career, and it was Week 12 of 2020.

In that game, it was Murray’s first game since sustaining an injury to his throwing shoulder. He initially hurt himself near the end of the Seahawks' game in Week 11.

Though Murray practiced, he was listed with a right shoulder injury in the days leading up to the game with the Patriots.

Murray went 23-of-34 for only 170 yards, 5.0 YPA, 0 TDs and 1 INT.

Almost as big a factor was his lack of rushing. Playing injured, Murray ran just five times in the game.

Prior to getting injured against the Seahawks the week before, Murray posted the following rushing stat lines:

Week 6: 10 rushes for 74 yards
Week 7: 14 rushes for 67 yards
bye
Week 9: 11 rushes for 106 yards
Week 10: 11 rushes for 62 yards

Murray was running 10-plus times a game with solid rushing totals and averages.

But with the injury, he didn’t run against the Patriots in 2020.

We know that running quarterbacks cause a lot of problems for the Patriots defense.

Lamar Jackson ran 11 times for 107 yards and Justin Fields ran 8 times for 20 yards. The Bills were having so much success running their RBs that they didn’t need Josh Allen to do much on the ground this year, but last year he ran 6 times for 66 yards and 12 times for 64 yards in his two meetings.

This will be the first time that Murray will have DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore on the field at once.

On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL. They rank No. 16 in pressure rate when they don’t blitz and No. 14 in pressure rate when they do blitz.

When they blitz, they play zone behind it at a 72% rate, which is second highest in the NFL and well above the NFL average of 44%.

In Week 3, the Ravens dialed up a number of blitzes with zone behind them, and Mac Jones threw an interception and took a sack and averaged just 1.3 YPA.

But since Week 3, look at the splits from Mac Jones when the defense blitzes:

Blitz + man: -0.08 EPA/att, 39% success, 6.7 YPA, 72% completions, 2 TD, 2 INT
Blitz + zone: +0.27 EPA/att, 58% success, 12.7 YPA, 89% completions, 1 TD, 0 INT

Ignoring blitzes and just looking at man/zone coverage, over the second half of the season, Mac Jones is completing passes at a 74% clip vs. zone and a 56% clip vs. man. All of his metrics are better vs. zone coverage.

Additionally, the Cardinals rank third-worst vs. early-down play action this year.

If the Patriots simply use rational coaching to game plan for this one, I think they might score enough to help extend this game over the 43.5-point total.

PICK: Over 43.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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