National Football League

NFL odds Week 14: How to bet Vikings-Lions

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 2:28 p.m. ET

The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings can clinch the NFC North Division title with a win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

A win would officially end a three-year run by the Green Bay Packers as the top team in that NFL division. It will be the first division title for the Vikings since 2017.

The last time the Lions won the division? Ummm, 1993 …

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Vikings-Lions game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Jared Goff's big day carries the Lions over the Jaguars

Quarterback Jared Goff and Detroit rolled to 40-14 win over Jacksonville.

Vikings at Lions (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Lions -2.5 (Lions favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Vikings cover)
Moneyline: Lions -138 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.25 total); Vikings +110 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 53.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

There’s a reason the Lions are favored here.

Bookmakers are basically saying the Vikings are lucky with their 10-2 record and +10 point differential. Minnesota has somehow won nine straight games by one score, which is almost mathematically impossible. And they’ve been outgained in a handful of those, including Sunday’s victory over the Jets. New York racked up almost 500 yards of offense in defeat.

Meanwhile, Detroit has covered five straight games (4-1 straight up over that stretch), thanks to a dangerous offense that’s getting healthier by the minute. The offensive line is all healed up and Jared Goff has his full cupboard of playmakers back. The Lions should shred a very overrated Vikings defense.

Lay this before it gets to 3.

PICK: Lions (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

NFL Week 14: Should you bet on the Lions to cover against the Vikings this weekend?

FOX betting analyst Sammy P breaks down the Week 14 matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings.

Pick from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The Vikings are a damn lucky team.

But the Vikings have also played a brutal schedule of defenses since Week 8.

Minnesota has done nothing but play top-10 defenses for five straight games, taking on:

No. 1 Dallas
No. 3 New England
No. 4 Buffalo
No. 5 NY Jets
No. 10 Washington

They won four of those five games, and while they should have lost more of those games, the defenses they faced were absolutely brutal.

That won’t be the case when they step down in class to take on the Lions, which ranks No. 19 on the season and is terrible vs. the run, ranking No. 25.

The lone concerning issue for Cousins is the defensive style of the Lions. They blitz and play man and do so at the No. 5 rate for both.

On the season, Kirk Cousins has major man vs. zone splits. Out of 38 QBs:

Vs. man: -0.10 EPA/att (No. 23), 36% success (No. 30), 6.2 YPA (No. 28), 52% completions (No. 31)
Vs. zone: +0.01 EPA/att (No. 21), 48% success (No. 14), 7.0 YPA (No. 25), 72% completions (No. 6)

In their Week 3 meeting earlier this year, against man coverage, Cousins was 12-of-26 (46%) for 125 yards at 4.8 YPA, -0.33 EPA/att and 26% success.

On the season, Cousins splits when blitzed vs. not blitzed. Out of 38 QBs:

Vs. blitz: -0.10 EPA/att (No. 27), 37% success (No. 33), 5.3 YPA (No. 36), 56% completions (No. 33)
Vs. no blitz: -0.01 EPA/att (No. 15), 46% success (No. 15), 7.0 YPA (No. 19), 68% completions (No. 10)

In their Week 3 meeting earlier this year, against the blitz, Cousins was 7-of-16 (44%) for 47 yards at 2.9 YPA, -0.38 EPA/att and 25% success.

This is a defensive style from the Lions that gives Cousins problems.

Meanwhile, the exact opposite is true for the Vikings.

The Vikings play zone at the second-highest rate in the NFL (82.5% of plays).

And Jared Goff has big splits, performing much better vs. zone.

In fact, on the season vs. zone, Goff ranks fifth in EPA/att, sixth in success rate and eighth in YPA.

And over the second half of the season, Goff ranks tops in EPA/att, tops in success rate and third in YPA vs. zone coverage.

This is a huge mismatch in the red zone favoring the Lions offense. Detroit ranks No. 5 in the red zone, while the Vikings defense ranks No. 27. Minnesota ranks No. 32 in success rate per play in the red zone. They were extremely fortunate the Jets went 1-of-6 in their red zone last week, but the Jets are a below-average red-zone offense and against the Lions top-5 red-zone offense, I don’t envision that happening this week.

Lastly, the Vikings' pass defense is the most sensitive to play action in the NFL and allows +0.47 EPA/att on early downs vs. play action, and the Lions use play action at an above-average rate.

I believe the Lions are rightly favored in this game but see no value in laying the points and instead would support a Lions team total Over 26.5 or 27 points.

PICK: Lions team total Over 27 points scored at FOX Bet

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