National Football League

NFL odds Week 16: How to bet Commanders-49ers

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 2:52 p.m. ET

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Brock Purdy was the 262nd and final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Taylor Heinicke wasn't even drafted in 2015.

Yet the two will start at quarterback when Heinicke's Washington Commanders play at Purdy's San Francisco 49ers on Saturday in a contest with playoff implications.

The Commanders (7-6-1) currently have the NFC's seventh and final playoff spot despite not winning since Nov. 27. 

The 49ers are 10-4 and on a seven-game win streak, with Purdy starting the previous two games. They have wrapped up the NFC West Division title and are looking to improve their seeding despite losing their top two QBs to injury (Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo).  The 49ers lead the all-time series 21-12-1.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Commanders-49ers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Brock Purdy, 49ers clinch NFC West title

The San Francisco 49ers clinched the NFC West with a 21-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks.

RELATED: Latest Super Bowl odds

Commanders at 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

Point spread: 49ers -7.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 7.5 points, otherwise Commanders cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -345 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.90 total); Commanders +260 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $36 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 37.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

I’m throwing out all of my gambling principles in this game. I’m taking the 7.5-point, home team favorite whose head coach has routinely struggled in this spot. Give me the super-hot Niners against the Commanders — a squad coming off a national TV loss. Sure, the line is inflated. I do not care. San Francisco will win big.

The Commanders started slow. They had a single win through five weeks, then struggled to beat the Bears in Week 6. Carson Wentz was benched. Taylor Heinicke took over the offense and sparked the entire team. Then, Washington won six of their next seven, including handing the Eagles their only loss of the season. The other five wins were close. The Commanders beat the Packers by two, the Colts by one and the Falcons by six. Then came the games against the Giants that were sandwiched with a bye week. Against the Giants, Washington posted one tie and one outright loss, and now the squad is looking at not making the playoffs. 

Washington has struggled to beat better teams because of Heinicke's limitations. He’s a fun player to root for, but ultimately, he's not good. The Commanders are scoring only 16 points a game since he took over, and now they head to San Francisco.

The Niners defense is the best in the NFL. They do not allow points, their defensive line is fierce, the linebackers are fast and the secondary is quick. Teams do not score against them, and I’m not sure what would propel the Commanders to score in this game.

The 49ers offense continues to roll with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy running the show. Kyle Shanahan isn’t asking Purdy to do much, relying on the run game, offensive line and screen game. However, when Purdy is tasked with throwing it, he appears more competent than most expected.  The Niners are a real offense with Purdy. And while the Commanders defense is excellent, this is a game where the Niners can wear them down. 

Washington's defense will be on the field for a long game. San Francisco will score late to cover this game and push the lead to double digits by the final whistle. 

PICK: 49ers (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points

Are you ready to make an NFL bet? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

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