National Football League

NFL odds Week 16: How to bet Saints-Browns

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 2:55 p.m. ET

The New Orleans Saints head to Ohio to square off against the Cleveland Browns in a Week 16 NFL matchup.

Both of these teams were victorious last weekend. The Saints defeated the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15, while the Browns took down the Baltimore Ravens in their matchup.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Saints-Browns game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

RELATED: Week 16 lines

Saints at Browns (1 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

Point spread: Browns -2.5 (Browns favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Saints cover)
Moneyline: Browns -162 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.17 total); Saints +125 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 32.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

This is the most extreme weather game you can have. Temperatures will be near zero most of the game, and the wind will be blowing up to 25 miles per hour. These are awful conditions for offensive football, so you should bet on this game accordingly.

The point total is incredibly low. It's sitting around 32 — give or take a half point here or there. But even with this low number, I’m playing the Under.

In the last 20 years, we’ve seen 52 games where the wind has been 20 mph winds or stronger. Of those, five of the eight were played in Cleveland. The final scores of those five games were 8-0, 23-17, 21-0, 13-6, 14-0. Saints-Browns is going to be one of those contests.

The Under hits in these matchups because it's impossible to pass, so it becomes a run-first affair for both offenses. Well, defenses know this and are prepared to stop the run. The game clock has fewer opportunities to stop, so it runs and runs. Also, adding points through the kicking game won’t be a big part of these teams' scoring. So you need multiple touchdowns to hit the Over.

Remember, it's the wind — not the cold, wet conditions — that creates issues for the passing game. And with gusts forecasted to reach 40 mph, neither quarterback will be able to move the ball downfield with any regularity.

Oddsmakers have priced this in, so passing totals are also incredibly low. Saints quarterback Andy Dalton’s number is 151.5, and the Browns Deshaun Watson is at 150.5.

The pigskin will not be flying too much this weekend in Cleveland. Take the Under.

PICK: Under 32.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Are you ready to make an NFL bet? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

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