National Football League

The best NFL offseason bets

Updated May. 21, 2021 10:57 a.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

For the third time in the month of May, I find myself writing a sports betting column that revolves around the National Football League, considering America’s favorite sport continues to drive conversation and wagers better than all the rest.

It should be no surprise that the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the lowest odds (meaning they have the highest probability) to win Super Bowl LVI, but the windshield to the win total numbers is a lot clearer after the NFL released its full schedule last week.

The richest teams only got richer in the eyes of the sportsbooks.

"We have the Bucs favored in every single game," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me. "Their schedule is very, very easy, and they brought everybody back. They’ll breeze to a division title. The Chiefs are also favored in every game. We looked at the two schedules, and it’s hard to forecast many losses."

That’s right: Tampa Bay and Kansas City are the betting favorites in all 17 of their regular-season games in 2021. Sheesh.

Hang on while I go make some bets on Bucs over 11.5 (-110) and Chiefs over 12.5 (+110).

Seriously, though. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes aren’t going anywhere, and Andy Reid has cashed for the "over" bettors in all eight of his seasons on the Kansas City sideline.

Meanwhile, FOX Bet split the Dallas Cowboys right down the middle. They’re favored in every home game, and they’re a dog in every road game but one (at the Giants). Go figure, the Cowboys' win total is O/U 9.5.

Team future markets and win totals are the norm in the 21st century, but new markets such as rookie player props are getting more and more popular across the country. It amazes me that Jacksonville rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence hasn’t thrown a pass in the league, but his yardage prop is 4,175.5.

"Everybody has a slightly different way of getting to that number," JBB explained. "One of the things I like to do is look at previous rookie averages. So you take all the first-round rookie quarterbacks in the last 10 years and make the proper comparisons to Lawrence. Where would he fit in?

"So you do those comparisons, but then you concentrate on the money. The money dictates the movement. It’s really about getting to a number quickly, putting it up and seeing where the money goes. The only thing working in our favor is that the customers have as much information as we do."

FOX Bet also has touchdown passes props for Lawrence and New York Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson.

"Look at the averages last season with [Justin] Herbert and [Joe] Burrow before his injury," JBB said. "There’s a correlated recency bias that gets baked into the Lawrence numbers because of what those guys did last year. We saw some books go up with 28.5 for Trevor’s touchdown line. Even with the 17th game, that’s ridiculous.

"We’re at 22.5 touchdown passes for Lawrence and 20.5 on Wilson. There are only four rookie quarterbacks that have thrown for 25-plus in their first season. And there’s certainly potential to go the other way. Guys could miss a couple of games with an injury, too. It’s not the easiest number to create."

One noteworthy discrepancy between rookie players is at the wide receiver position. The difference between Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase (1,069.5) and Miami’s Jaylen Waddle (730.5) is a whopping 339 yards.

"I like Waddle," JBB admitted. "But the real worry is the quarterback position. Chase can slide right in with Burrow and be a prototypical No. 1 wide receiver right away. And Burrow threw the ball a ton last year.

"We’re bullish that Burrow will have much more yardage than Tua [Tagovailoa]. And Miami has DeVante Parker, Will Fuller and Mike Gesicki. There are more mouths to feed in Miami for a quarterback that averaged 80 yards less per game."

That JBB sure loves his statistics, doesn’t he?

Obviously, there is no formula or algorithm that tells you how many receiving yards a rookie wideout will accumulate in his first season. But setting markets such as rookie receiving yards allows a bookmaker to take a stand behind their calculations and intuitions.

They know they could be way off, and that’s the beauty of it.

"We were one of the first books to post rookie player props, so there’s some margin for error when you’re quick to market," JBB said. "But we haven’t had to make any big corrections. We were probably a touch high on Kyle Pitts compared to everybody else, so we dropped his numbers a little bit. But the Falcons love to throw the ball, and they could still be trailing quite a bit. I guess we’ll see how it plays out."

Rookie quarterback Justin Fields doesn’t have any betting props posted yet because of all the uncertainty around Chicago’s plan. The Bears should move on from immobile fossil Andy Dalton, but this regime continues to make the wrong decisions.

Bookmakers can’t hang a season-long prop because they have absolutely no idea whether Fields will start in Week 1 or Week 6. There’s too much volatility to hang a season-long number.

"I think there should be an open competition, and if Fields deserves to start, the job should be his," JBB opined. "But Dalton will likely start and have a short leash. The fact that we don’t have any idea of Chicago’s plan makes it difficult to guess how many yards or touchdowns Fields will throw for. It’s a glorified guessing game."

Lastly, as you read this in the middle of May, one team is already making bookmakers nervous in the Super Bowl future markets. It’s isn't the aforementioned Buccaneers or Chiefs because books purposefully open those teams low to limit the liability from multiplying. You won’t get your lights shut out if a team wins the Super Bowl with preseason odds of +550 or +750.

If the Denver Broncos win it all, though, ish will hit the fan.

"As you can probably imagine, the Broncos have seen loads of money in the futures market already," JBB reported. "We got hit hard once the reports surfaced about Aaron Rodgers getting traded to Denver back on draft night. The money just kept coming in.

"We’re all the way down to 20-to-1 on the Broncos. If Rodgers stays in Green Bay, we may triple the price. It would be a massive move up if Rodgers retires or doesn’t get traded."

Time will tell a lot of things in an offseason that still has three months and some change before Week 1. But the proof is in the pudding: It’s never too early to gamble on the National Football League.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.