Ohio State, Notre Dame seeing balanced action; sportsbook needs Bears upset
Yes, we at FOX Sports are well aware that Colorado continues to be wildly popular among college football bettors. That fact won't change these next few days.
However, there are several other outstanding matchups on the Week 4 oddsboard. That includes a massive showdown in South Bend, Indiana, between No. 6 Ohio State and No. 9 Notre Dame.
And of course, we've got Week 3 NFL odds to discuss.
So let's dive into this week's NFL and college football betting nuggets.
Saturday Night Lights
Ohio State and Notre Dame meet in a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday. Over the summer, if you were paying attention to things such as Game of the Year odds, you'd know that Ohio State was as much as an 8.5-point favorite in this contest.
However, with the Fighting Irish looking good while going 4-0 straight up (SU) and 3-1 against the spread (ATS), oddsmakers have made a significant adjustment. On Sunday morning, when BetMGM opened Ohio State-Notre Dame, the Buckeyes were -3.5 (-105, bet $10 to win $19.52 total).
Ohio State (3-0 SU/1-2 ATS) is now down to -3.
That's quite a difference from last month. So if you wanted to bet the Irish, here's hoping you got the 8.5/7.5/6.5 that were out there weeks ago. And if you waited to bet Ohio State, well, your patience has now paid off, grasshopper.
BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker said this matchup harkens back to a time when Colorado was an absolute afterthought — if even a thought at all. That time was just last season, when the Buffs went 1-11 SU.
"Before the days of Colorado, Ohio State and Notre Dame were always the heaviest-bet teams by the public on a weekly basis. So it's rather fitting that they play each other, as neither is the ultimate public darling of the week," Drucker said. "Thus far, it's really balanced action on both sides. However, I would expect come Saturday that we will be rooting for the Irish as small home ‘dogs."
Will Sam Hartman and Notre Dame upset Ohio State at home?
The Sharp Side
Paul Stone, a Texas-based handicapper and college football betting expert, will also be rooting for the Irish come Saturday. A key factor for Stone: Since the start of the 2008 season, Notre Dame is 9-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Stone also has faith in Sam Hartman, who transferred to Notre Dame from Wake Forest.
"While Hartman is in his sixth season playing college football, Ohio State starter Kyle McCord is making his second career road start and first against a ranked opponent," Stone said. "I like the Irish's considerable edge in experience at the quarterback position."
Behind the Counter
At first blush, the Los Angeles Rams versus Cincinnati Bengals meeting looked the most appealing in the NFL Week 3 odds market. It's a rematch of Super Bowl LVI, which L.A. won 23-20 but that Cincy covered as a 4.5-point underdog.
The Rams (1-1 SU and ATS) look better than people anticipated this season. On the flip side, the Bengals (0-2 SU and ATS) — who reached the AFC title game last season — are in a semi-must-win spot.
But QB Joe Burrow re-aggravated a calf injury in Cincinnati's Week 2 home loss to Baltimore. The odds seem to indicate he won't play Monday night, which takes a lot of the luster off this matchup.
"This game opened around Cincy -7 with a healthy Burrow," said Chris Fargis, senior director of trading risk for Fanatics Sportsbook. "With the current line of Cincy -2.5, the market is telling us he is not going to play. But he does have an extra day, with this being a Monday night matchup.
"Since Ohio is one of our markets, I still expect Bengals money to come in, with or without Burrow."
Bengals winless thru Week 2, Joe Burrow reggravates calf injury
Hail to the Chiefs
In a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday on FOX and the FOX Sports App, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (1-1 SU and ATS) host the Chicago Bears (0-2 SU and ATS).
Kansas City is a healthy 12-point favorite, but that number isn't dissuading Fanatics bettors at all.
"Customers are all over the Chiefs here early in the week," Fargis said. "The biggest favorite on the board at the moment and at home, the Chiefs on the moneyline is a popular selection (too). We will end up very lopsided here, needing the Bears to pull the upset."
With the Chiefs -750 on the moneyline (bet $10 to win $11.33 total), it's likely most of that action is in moneyline parlays, rather than straight bets on the moneyline. Still, those parlays add up, hence Fanatics' need for a Chicago outright win.
In Sunday's 1 p.m. ET window on FOX and the FOX Sports App, it's unusual that a matchup of 0-2 teams would be described as compelling. But it's fair to say in the case of the Los Angeles Chargers versus the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams made the playoffs last year and need to get moving this season.
Several sportsbooks opened with the Chargers as a short road favorite, and the line quickly jumped the fence to the Vikings being a short home chalk.
"In what looks to be the most competitive game of the week, this matchup has the home-team Vikings as the slightest favorites at -1," Fargis said. "Tickets have been quiet here thus far. No major action to report."
Fargis also provided a glance at the first game in the NFL Week 3 odds market: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night. The Giants will be without running back Saquon Barkley (ankle). The Niners are 10.5-point favorites.
"Another big favorite and another popular selection for customers," Fargis said. "This time, they want the Niners with the points and on the moneyline, after the Giants had to eke out a win in Arizona last week. Getting into the props, they are loving Christian McCaffrey Over 80.5 rushing yards and to score the first TD."
More Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is intrigued by the Thursday night game but not by either side. Rather, he played the total Under 45.5 and Under 45 early in the week. That total is now down to 44.
"A short week for the big-comeback New York Giants comes with a banged-up squad. Not only Barkley, but the offensive line against a strong San Fran defense," McKay said. "On the other side, you have a strong defensive line in the Giants that could hold down the favorite 49ers."
Two more plays McKay has already made:
– Lions -3 versus Falcons: "This line dipped after Atlanta's comeback versus Green Bay and Detroit's overtime loss to Seattle. The Lions will have too much offense in this matchup versus an Atlanta team that is still one-dimensional. I like to go against young QBs on the road." McKay is alluding to Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder.
– Titans +3 versus Browns: "This is a bad scheduling spot for the Browns, in between two division games on a short week. The Titans are 2-0 ATS and playing Mike Vrabel-type football, so getting points is a premium against teams that are close [in ability] to them. The Titans appear to be fairly healthy, whereas the Browns come in banged up for this matchup." Indeed, Cleveland just lost running back Nick Chubb (knee) for the season.
Will Cincinnati upset Oklahoma in their first Big 12 game?
College Football Rocks on FOX
This week's Big Noon Kickoff on FOX pits No. 16 Oklahoma against Cincinnati at, of course, noon ET.
"Interesting game here," Drucker said. "All of the sharp money is coming in on Cincy so far as we've seen that number dip quite a bit. It's trending toward closing under two touchdowns after opening around 16."
Oklahoma stood at -14.5 (-105) Wednesday night.
Stone is among the sharp bettors keen on the two-touchdown-plus home underdog. Cincinnati is playing its first conference game as a member of the Big 12.
"Cincinnati is hurting after falling to Miami (Ohio) as a two-touchdown favorite," Stone said, alluding to a stunning 31-24 overtime home loss last week. "But I look for the Bearcats to rebound with a top effort in an energy-filled setting."
Drucker supplied insights on a couple more noteworthy matchups in the college football Week 4 odds market:
– Florida State versus Clemson: The Seminoles are ranked No. 4 but are just 2.5-point road favorites against the unranked Tigers. "It really seems like the public loves this FSU team and isn't a big fan of Dabo Swinney and the Tigers. It will be interesting to see the final numbers, but I would expect to be rooting for the Tigers come Saturday."
– Ole Miss versus Alabama: The host Crimson Tide went from -7 to -6.5 and back to -7 by Monday. Nick Saban's squad sat at -7 (-105) Wednesday night. "Bama losing to Texas takes a bit of the appeal out of this matchup. QB concerns at ‘Bama make it interesting. We have seen mainly sharp money on Ole Miss so far."
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
As of late Wednesday night, there aren't many big bets reported on the upcoming NFL and college football slates. In fact, the most noteworthy wager is actually a Super Bowl futures play. A BetMGM customer put $27,000 on the Dolphins +2000 to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Should Tua Tagovailoa & Co. go the distance, that bettor would profit $540,000, for a total payout of $567,000. FWIW: The Dolphins are now +1300 at BetMGM.
Looking back to NFL Week 2 Monday night, a DraftKings Sportsbook bettor put $125,000 on Browns-Steelers Over 38.5. The customer cashed by the end of the third quarter in Pittsburgh's 26-22 victory, profiting $113,636, for a total payout of $238,636.
On the college front, Caesars Sports took a $50,000 wager on Michigan +850 to win the College Football Playoff. If the Wolverines win it all in January, the bettor would profit $425,000 for a $475,000 total payout. Michigan is now the +400 second choice in Caesars' CFP championship odds, behind only +230 favorite Georgia.
Meanwhile, I'm just making #ChilisMoney bets hoping to win a dinner or two. You, too, should keep it reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Enjoy the big football weekend!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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