National Football League

Packers, Bucs appear headed for NFC Championship rematch

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 1:59 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Entering Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season, 27 teams were alive for a playoff berth, tying the record for the most clubs still in the race this late in the season.

That number might have you believe that the chase for Super Bowl LVI is wide-open, but that certainly isn't true in the NFC, where it appears that we are headed for a rematch in the conference title game.

Can anything prevent the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers from another meeting at Lambeau Field to decide who goes to the Super Bowl?

Let's break it down.

"I'm really thankful to be here"

Aaron Rodgers talks about setting the Packers' franchise record for touchdown passes during Green Bay's victory over Cleveland on Christmas Day

Green Bay is 12-3 and controls its destiny for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

In Matt LaFleur’s first three seasons guiding the Packers, they have yet to lose a regular-season game once the calendar turns to December. With the Vikings and Lions on tap to finish the season, I do not expect the Packers to trip up this year, either.

The Packers are led by the potential back-to-back MVP, Aaron Rodgers. The 38-year-old QB has looked calm and collected all season. Even with a bum toe, Rodgers is shredding defenses, completing 68% of his passes with 33 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He's in total command of an offense that ranks No. 2 overall, according to DVOA.

The Green Bay defense started quickly this season but has cooled off lately. However, as the Packers get important players back off the injury list, I expect this defense to return to its early-season success.

While I feel comfortable penciling in the Packers for the NFC Championship Game, there are three things that could derail them.

Packers hold off Browns

Aaron Rodgers passed Brett Favre with his 443rd career touchdown pass as Green Bay held off Cleveland 24-22.

The first and second go together. First would be losing one of their final two games (vs. Minnesota or at Detroit) and not getting the bye. That bye means not only a week of rest for Rodgers but also needing to win two games to reach the conference final.

The one reason the Packers could drop a game down the stretch is their failure to put away games lately. They were up 31-17 against the Ravens and held on to win by one in Week 15. On Saturday, they controlled the game against the Browns but finished with only a two-point win. This is extremely nitpicky, but it has been an issue for Green Bay the past two weeks.

The third reason would be their 25th-ranked rushing defense just getting gashed for an entire game. If Green Bay can’t get off the field on defense, its offense has less room for error.

Again, these are very remote reasons that the Packers might not be back in the NFC title game, but I get an A for effort.

Meanwhile, the Bucs sit in the third seed after clinching the NFC South with a dominant victory over the Panthers on Sunday. Tampa Bay can earn the No. 1 seed by winning out and getting losses from both the Rams and Packers over the final two weeks.

But after Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season as the No. 5 seed, I’m not sure it matters where the champs begin the playoffs.

Dr. Matt's update on the Buccaneers' health

Dr. Matt Provencher provides an update on the overall health of the Buccaneers following the losses of Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

However, there’s one issue that could leave the Bucs out of that game: injuries. Tampa Bay lost receiver Chris Godwin for the season but returned Antonio Brown. Mike Evans did not play at Carolina, but he appears on track to return for the playoffs.

Will the Bucs get some of their important pieces back before or during the playoffs? Tampa Bay put running back Leonard Fournette and linebacker Lavonte David on injured reserve for the final three weeks of the season. Those two can return for the playoffs if they get healthy.

Can the Bucs win multiple playoff games with a banged-up roster? We shall see. But I know I’m never betting against Tom Brady, who owns a 3-1 record in four career meetings with Rodgers.

Also of note: The Los Angeles Rams hold sole possession of the NFC West lead after a road win against the Vikings on Sunday. The Rams have won four in a row and appear to be peaking at the right moment. Are they capable of beating the Bucs or Packers to claim one of the spots in the NFC title game? Of course they are.

The L.A. defense features the best game-wrecker in the league in defensive tackle Aaron Donald. He can take over a game and force turnovers, which lead to points for the Rams' offense. The Rams' pass defense is seventh in the NFL, and with Jalen Ramsey locking up the opponent's No. 1 option, it can be difficult to score on L.A.

MVP picks from "FOX NFL Sunday"

The "FOX NFL Sunday" experts give their MVP picks, including Cooper Kupp, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Jonathan Taylor.

The Rams' offense can hum at times with Matthew Stafford connecting to Cooper Kupp, who will get votes for Offensive Player of the Year. However, Stafford throws too many "arm punts" and off-target throws for me to buy in to the Rams. It might not matter in games against the Vikings or Seahawks, but these mistakes will absolutely cost the team against the big dogs in the NFC.

Also, Stafford has yet to win a playoff game in three career appearances. He rarely has been in a moment like he’s about to see in this postseason. If Stafford can have two games without mistakes, the Rams can make the NFC title game.

The Arizona Cardinals, who fell a game back in the West after their third straight loss, are fading and not worth spending much time on. I’ve told y’all for a month now what was bound to happen. In the first seven weeks of the season, Kliff Kingsbury is 15-5-1 as a head coach. After Week 7, he’s 8-18.

Kingsbury's teams followed the same pattern when he coached at Texas Tech. It’s what his teams do. They make no adjustments. They don’t handle injuries well. They have weird in-game management decisions. The Cardinals will not reach the NFC title game.

The Dallas Cowboys own the NFC East and are a well-balanced team. When healthy, Dallas has an extremely active pass rush and a secondary that forces tons of turnovers. Offensively, the Cowboys have a ton of firepower, and when Tyron Smith is playing left tackle, they have a top offensive line.

Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is clearly still dealing with his calf injury because he has been rather poor for large parts of games over the past month. In fact, his efficiency numbers have been near the bottom of the NFL since Week 10.

However, if Dak is able to rest in Week 18 or the Cowboys somehow get the first-round bye, I could see them taking down the Packers or Bucs. They have the personnel and quarterback to get it done. I do wonder about their head coach in big moments, but to Mike McCarthy's credit, he has won the Super Bowl before.

Overall, I like the Cowboys more than the Rams or Cardinals.

But if I were a betting man — and you know that I am — my money would be on the Packers and Bucs staging the first rematch in the NFC Championship since 1994.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.