National Football League

Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen? Chiefs or Bills? Debating Championship Sunday

Published Jan. 22, 2025 8:00 a.m. ET

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have history.

In Sunday's AFC Championship Game, the superstar quarterbacks will square off for the ninth time — and it'll be a tiebreaker of sorts, with each player sitting at four wins. But, of course, not all wins are measured equally. Mahomes is 3-0 in the postseason against Buffalo, and that's what makes this such a crucial matchup for Allen's legacy. Their rivalry ultimately won't be viewed as much of a rivalry if one QB never wins the meaningful games.

The showdown assures that one of them will be in the Super Bowl and serves as the nightcap for what should be a captivating Championship Sunday. In the NFC, one team has arguably the best roster in football, while the other boasts the best rookie QB in NFL history.

In preparation for Bills-Chiefs and Commanders-Eagles, FOX Sports NFL writers Ben Arthur and Henry McKenna engaged in a spirited conversation centered on Sunday's four starting quarterbacks and how the title games might unfold.

Josh Allen has been statistically superior to Patrick Mahomes for two full seasons now. Have you reached the point where you expect Allen to outperform Mahomes, even in the postseason?

Ben Arthur: Not really. Not while Mahomes remains in a different class when it comes to postseason football. Not only is he 3-0 against Allen in the playoffs, but he'll be playing in his seventh straight AFC Championship Game. Mahomes is at his very best when the lights are brightest. Ultimately, that's all that really matters, even if his raw stats in the regular season haven't necessarily been what they were earlier in his tenure as Chiefs QB1.

Henry McKenna: Yeah, Mahomes is a back-to-back Super Bowl champion because of his unique ability to close games in the postseason. So, the expectation for any postseason game is that he'll outperform the opposing QB. But I don't know, I still think Allen is going to play better this weekend. I wrote earlier this week that I expect the Bills to win. If that's going to happen, it'll be because Allen played better than Mahomes — which would be all the more impressive since KC's defense is better than Buffalo's.

Arthur: Even if Allen outplays Mahomes, are we sure the Bills are going to win? Mahomes is so good on the margins and in situational football in big games that even if Allen's raw numbers look better, it might not be enough. Gotta keep in mind that Kansas City had its fire lit when these teams met in November, which is the only time the Chiefs' starters have lost in the past 24 games. Since that Week 11 matchup, Mahomes has 12 passing touchdowns and zero giveaways.

We can talk all we want about this being Allen's "time" to finally beat Mahomes in the playoffs, but Mahomes & Co. certainly aren't looking at it that way.

McKenna: The Bills beat the Chiefs once this season. The Buffalo coaching staff seems to be improving in terms of late-game management, which has been their weakness in previous years against KC.

Allen is as cool, calm and collected as we've ever seen him. It's not arbitrarily "his time." It's that his game has hit a point where he's never been more capable. He should win this game.

Arthur: Would one postseason win against Mahomes in four tries all of a sudden make Allen the better player? I don't know about that.

Of course, Allen's growth has been incredible, and he's certainly played better than Mahomes in the past couple of regular seasons. But I think more weight needs to be put on Mahomes' greatness in the playoffs, a résumé that Allen can't stand up to right now. So, I'd think any talk of Allen being viewed as the better player by popular opinion would be more that people are sick of seeing Mahomes' success.

McKenna: Well, Mahomes is the greater player. No doubt.

But better? Right now? At this exact moment? I'm not sure. When he didn't have elite weapons (and Travis Kelce looked diminished) earlier this year, Mahomes wasn't a top-10 QB. All year, Allen hasn't had elite weapons. And he's been a top-two QB.

Allen has been the better player this season. I actually think Mahomes' greatness obscures the evaluation of his current body of work.

What specifically do you think Mahomes does better than Allen at this point in their careers?

McKenna: Mahomes is actually still slightly better on third and fourth downs, according to EPA (expected points added) per dropback. Mahomes runs a little safer than Allen — but no less efficiently. I'd give Mahomes the edge in situational awareness and decision-making, too, even if Allen has progressed to the point where it's excruciatingly close.

They're extremely similar players. And if Allen had a head-to-head win over Mahomes in the postseason, it might even be the popular opinion that Allen is the better player.

Arthur: Mahomes is a more accurate quarterback than Allen — in terms of both completion rate and on-target throw rate — though you can argue that Mahomes' reliance on the short and intermediate game the past couple of years skew those numbers in his favor. His biggest advantage over Allen is in mental acuity and situational awareness, which isn't always easy to quantify. In most categories, I will say, Allen has either surpassed or met Mahomes in.

Who between them will need more from their supporting cast to prevail Sunday?

Arthur: Definitely Mahomes. The championship blueprint the Chiefs have certainly gives them an edge, but the reality is that the Bills have looked like the much better and more dominant team this season, even if Kansas City has more wins.

The 35-year-old Kelce was the only one to show up for the Chiefs in the passing game in the divisional round. Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy and others are going to have to step up to take the pressure off him. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco need to come up big out of the backfield, too. They combined for less than 70 rushing yards last week. I'm not worried about Kansas City's defense — the pass rush delivered eight sacks against Houston — but the offense needs more, for sure.

McKenna: Ben, I thought we'd agree here!? From my vantage point, the Chiefs' defense is better, top to bottom, and the Chiefs' playmakers are better, given the ascent we've seen in production from Xavier Worthy and Kelce. The Bills have the better offensive line. And, as I've been saying, I think Buffalo will have the better QB on Sunday.

In that sense, I think Allen will need more support because he's going up against a better defense with worse weapons. But I take your point, too, in that Allen hasn't really needed much support to get this far. Mahomes, meanwhile, hasn't met expectations without support.

Let's move on to Sunday's matinée between the Commanders and Eagles. How many starters across the league are you confident in saying are better than rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels?

McKenna: Sheesh. That's a tough one.

Daniels keeps ascending, but C.J. Stroud serves as a cautionary tale of playing prisoner to the moment. (This year was not super impressive after an incredible rookie year.) So … trying to put that out of mind, I'd take Daniels to win a game for me on Sunday over all but the following QBs: Allen, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow.

I really wanted to include Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff, but Daniels just beat those guys. I wanted to include Justin Herbert, but he flopped in the wild-card round. And Jordan Love? Not consistent enough.

Looking at that list, I can't believe it. It reframes how hot Daniels is right now.

Arthur: For as much as we've disagreed throughout this banter, Henry, we're actually on the same page about Daniels (!).

I have the same list of five quarterbacks that I'm not ready to take him over: Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson, Stafford and Allen.

As noted, Stroud's regression from his rookie year can't be lost in our eagerness to heap praise on Daniels. But his calmness in pressure moments — both his physical demeanor and performance — is so impressive. It exceeds what Stroud did last season. Check this: Daniels' 108.5 passer rating in nine road games in 2024 (including the playoffs), is the best by a rookie in league history. He's the fourth rookie quarterback since 1950 to win multiple playoff games.

Daniels has a case for being the best current quarterback in the NFC, though I give Stafford the seniority edge in the clutch.

Does Daniels have to be the best player on the field for the Commanders to beat the Eagles? What is your prediction for the NFC title game?

Arthur: These Commanders are so hard to count out because of Daniels, but I'm going Eagles here.

I just don't believe that Washington can contain Saquon Barkley, who carried Philly to multiple victories this season and is coming off a 205-yard rushing performance against the Rams. The Commanders have struggled stopping the run all year — ranked 30th in rush defense during the regular season — and Barkley had 296 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry against Washington in two regular-season matchups. Regardless of how well Daniels plays, I don't think he'll have the ball long enough to lead the Commanders to another upset.

McKenna: Just like I stuck with the Bills and Chiefs' regular-season result, I'm going to stick with the Commanders and Eagles' latest result.

I think Washington wins. It goes against the logic part of my brain that's telling me: Daniels is too young to get to the Super Bowl. But Daniels is 24. He's only two years younger than Jalen Hurts. He's the same age Hurts was when he went to the Super Bowl (and the same age as Brock Purdy was last year in the Super Bowl).

Saquon Barkley has gotten the Eagles through a very, very, very weird season, from Nick Siriani trash-talking fans to A.J. Brown trash-talking Jalen Hurts to Brown determining the Amazon best-seller list. But we're in the phase of the postseason where QBs matter most. And, as we discussed earlier, we both like Daniels over Hurts. He has been much better in the second half of the season, but the counting stats show … mediocrity.

Give me Daniels. Give me Washington.

Arthur: Hurts' knee injury coming out of the divisional round does him no favors, either. A banged-up Hurts, who at full strength looks like the inferior quarterback anyway, is not great news for Philly.

But I'm really interested in how Daniels responds on this stage. We can't overlook how dominant the Eagles' pass defense has been just because the No. 2 pick has been so good in pressure moments. Philly ranked first in total pass defense and second in passing EPA per play allowed during the regular season. Daniels hasn't faced a secondary like this.

You add that to the Commanders' exploitable defense, Washington's Cinderella story has a good chance of coming to an end.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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