National Football League

Patriots' QB quandary; Mahomes thriving on third down: NFL Week 7 analysis

Updated Oct. 25, 2022 3:28 p.m. ET

By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer

Bengals Offense Getting Back on Track With Coaching Adjustments

Over the last three weeks, the Bengals offense has had to face the defenses of the Ravens, Saints and Falcons. These three units rank below average in the NFL, but only the Falcons defense is truly terrible.

Playing bad defenses helps. But coaching adjustment can help even more.

During Weeks 1-4, the Bengals ranked #32 in EPA/play on early downs. The past 3 weeks? No. 1.

A shift from -0.17 EPA/play to +0.20. They also shifted from the third-worst rate of early downs converted to first downs (20.3%) to third best (32.2%).

The coaching adjustment that helped a ton?

A massive shift to using more 11 personnel and more shotgun. Sharp Football Analysis' Dan Pizzuta first noticed this before last week's game.

Look at the massive change over the last three weeks:

11 personnel, weeks 1-4: 79%
11 personnel, weeks 5+: 98%
Shotgun, weeks 1-4: 66%
Shotgun, weeks 5+: 88%

As a result of more 11 personnel and more shotgun, the Bengals saw way fewer box defenders:

7+ box defenders, weeks 1-4: 47%
7+ box defenders, weeks 5+: 29%

Another coaching improvement?

A vastly lower run rate on first down, from 55% in the first four weeks to 34% the past three weeks. Basically, we're talking 20% more 11 personnel, 20% more shotgun, 20% fewer run plays on first down.

And when they ran the ball on first down, there were 7+ box defenders on 31% of their runs the last three weeks instead of 63% in their first 4 games.

The Bengals were still better on first down when they pass the ball, but at least their first down runs aren't crippling:

1D EPA/rush, weeks 1-4: -0.26 (2.8 YPC)
1D EPA/rush, weeks 5+: +0.01 (4.4 YPC)

Giants Aggression

Despite a depleted wide receivers corps, the Giants turned the corner offensively last week because they chose to get more aggressive through the air.

Examine their pass rate and YPA on early downs in the first half:

Weeks 1-6: 56% pass and 6.3 YPA
Week 7: 64% pass and 8.1 YPA

Nearly 10% more passing out of the gates put Daniel Jones in a position to lead from ahead rather than try to claw back from behind.

On early downs in the first quarter, the Giants had 12 plays on offense. They passed the ball at an 83% rate. That was #1 highest in the NFL.

The prior three games?

Week 4: 36% pass
Week 5: 50% pass
Week 6: 60% pass

They jumped all the way up to 83% pass, by far their highest in any game this season.

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This aggression put them up at halftime for just the second game all season (the only other game being a home game against the Bears in Week 4). Unfortunately, disaster struck for the Giants, as they lost two starting offensive linemen and their starting tight end to injury during the game.

As they've typically done, they gutted out the win down the stretch. But this was, by far, their best performance of the season to start out a game.

It remains to be seen who they will have healthy for their game vs. the Seahawks next week. But either way, the Giants will have a bye in Week 9 and enter the second half of the season with, at minimum, six wins.

Opposing QBs the Giants will face out of the bye to close the season?

Through seven weeks, the 2022 Giants have been underdogs at kickoff in five games this year. They are a perfect 5-0 SU in these games.

That's the first time since at least 1978 that a team has won every game outright when being made an underdog in at least five games. It might be the first time this has happened in NFL history, but weekly Vegas lines prior to 1978 are difficult to acquire.

Defenses are playing more man vs. Mahomes — it's helping on early downs, but he's carving them up on third down

Without Tyreek Hill, defenses have begun to change their approach against the Chiefs this year. Look at the rate of their man coverage on early downs on the season:

Defenses playing man on early downs:

2022: 29%
2021: 21%
2020: 27%

This hasn't necessarily resulted in massively worse performance, save for a slight dip in the YPA from Patrick Mahomes. But from an efficiency perspective (EPA and success rate) Mahomes is faring quite similar vs. man coverage in 2022 as he did last year with Hill.

Mahomes on early downs vs. man coverage:

2022: +0.11 EPA/att, 46% success, 5.2 YPA (6.8 air yds/att)
2021: +0.02 EPA/att, 47% success, 6.3 YPA (6.8 air yds/att)
2020: +0.19 EPA/att, 49% success, 7.5 YPA (8.8 air yds/att)

However, Mahomes is much better vs. zone on early downs this year than he is vs. man, averaging more EPA, success and YPA in 2022 than in prior years.

Mahomes on early downs vs. zone:

2022: +0.24 EPA/att, 53% success, 8.8 YPA (6.7 air yds/att)
2021: +0.18 EPA/att, 52% success, 7.6 YPA (7.0 air yds/att)
2020: +0.19 EPA/att, 53% success, 8.2 YPA (7.6 air yds/att)

As such, defenses are right to play more man coverage on early downs. Mahomes vs. zone on early downs from a YPA and EPA/att is better in 2022 than the prior two years.

However, third downs are a different story. Defenses play more man on third down, naturally, but they are playing 10% more man this year than last year:

Defenses playing man on third down vs. Mahomes:

2022: 52%
2021: 42%
2020: 49%

And look at the results. Mahomes on third down vs. man coverage:

2022: +1.00 EPA/att, 60% success, 12.7 YPA (10.1 air yds/att)
2021: +0.20 EPA/att, 49% success, 9.6 YPA (10.5 air yds/att)
2020: +0.28 EPA/att, 52% success, 8.7 YPA (10.8 air yds/att)

Playing zone isn't exactly an answer, either. Mahomes on third down vs. zone:

2022: +0.84 EPA/att, 57% success, 13.6 YPA (8.3 air yds/att) <- 11.8 YAC/completion
2021: +0.28 EPA/att, 53% success, 8.7 YPA (9.5 air yds/att) <- 4.6 YAC/completion
2020: +0.13 EPA/att, 48% success, 9.5 YPA (11.0 air yds/att)

Mahomes is simply vastly superior on third downs in 2022, whether defenses are playing man or zone. He is seeing much more man than in 2021 (10% more) and is absolutely destroying it in 2022. He is holding onto the ball longer on these plays (46% of his attempts are after 3-plus seconds as compared to 31% in 2021) and this is inviting slightly more pressure (54.1% pressure rate in 2022 vs. 53.7% in 2021).

What Were The Patriots Thinking

Far be it from me to outthink the genius Bill Belichick. But I left Monday night's game scratching my head over his decisions at the QB position.

You are 9-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears. When playing an underdog in this situation, particularly one which is so heavily run-based, it's vital to jump out to an early lead to force the game to be one-dimensional for the Bears.

The Patriots did not do that.

Instead, they planned all along to use a quarterback platoon. Worse yet, they started the player who was still dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss multiple games.

And this player, Mac Jones, hadn't started a game in weeks. The odds of him starting out this game quickly and with precision were very low.

Look at what happened to Dak Prescott the day before. After long layoffs due to injury, quarterbacks rarely start humming immediately out of the gates. The Cowboys trailed the Lions at halftime before pulling away late on Sunday.

But this was worse than just making a mistake with how you bring a veteran QB back from injury. This was a young QB you used a high draft pick on.

If he's not 100%, why are you starting him, especially since his backup has won two straight games for you? If he's not 100%, why is it getting leaked to the media before kickoff that he may not play the full game? It makes zero sense to take the approach the Patriots did last night.

Hindsight is 20/20, but it seems the ideal approach would have been as follows:

1. If our #1 QB isn't healthy, he doesn't play

That, or…

1a. He could be our reserve QB if we start our backup (Bailey Zappe) and he struggles or gets injured

Maybe Jones could have played if needed, but the Patriots would have rather avoided having him play the entire game if possible.

In that case, start the 2-0 Zappe, and if he's struggling, bring in Jones.

But starting Jones, seeing him lead the team to back-to-back punts, a natural expectation for a QB off an injury and not playing for several weeks, hearing the home crowd boo him and chant for his backup, and then pulling him when he throws an interception was gross mismanagement.

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.