National Football League

Peter Schrager's Cheat Sheet: Are the Carolina Panthers legit contenders?

Updated Oct. 3, 2021 11:05 a.m. ET

By Peter Schrager
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of the Schrager Cheat Sheet.

Each week, I take a look at several things you need to know heading into the NFL weekend. This week, we’re loaded with nuggets on the Carolina Panthers, Tom Brady, rookie QBs and more.

Let’s get to it.

1. A real test for the Carolina Panthers

Many observers have taken a "wait-and-see" approach on whether the Panthers are legitimate NFC contenders. Why? Because their wins have come over the hapless Jets in Week 1, a travel-weary, COVID-19-impacted Saints squad in Week 2, and a rookie QB in Houston in Week 3.

That's fair.

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Sunday at Dallas will be Carolina's first "real" test. Though many would point to the 10-day rest as an advantage against the Cowboys, the Panthers will be without their best player in Christian McCaffrey, their top defensive rookie in cornerback Jaycee Horn and their best nickel defender in Myles Hartsfield.

But make no mistake: This is a fork-in-the-road game for the Panthers. They’ll be on the road in Dallas in front of a national TV audience. Is this team worthy of our attention?

One thing we do know is that the young defense is for real, and perhaps way ahead of schedule. Earlier this week, head coach Matt Rhule called his 65-year old defensive coordinator Phil Snow the best coach he'd ever been around. This, for sure, is Rhule's best defense.

After spending their first seven picks in last year's NFL Draft on defense, the Panthers have seen the planted seeds of the past two off-seasons blossom into a ferocious flower. Through three games, Snow's D has allowed the fewest yards (191.0) and second-fewest points per game (10.0) in the NFL.

But the Jets or the Texans or even the Saints don't have players like Dak, Zeke, Amari and CeeDee.

Sam Darnold also is an interesting figure in this game. On his second rushing touchdown in Carolina's win over Houston last Thursday, his helmet got knocked off his head and he celebrated with his offensive linemen, shouting and smiling for the world to see. I'd been around Darnold a bunch in his three years with the Jets. Trust me, there were not a lot of smiles.

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But his best game as a pro did come against the Cowboys. In Week 6 of 2019, with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on the call and a national audience watching, Darnold went 23-for-32 for 338 yards and two touchdowns in a Jets win over Dallas. Can Darnold do it again? He certainly won't be intimidated by the logo on the opposition's helmet.

Everyone is back on the Dallas bandwagon after the Cowboys’ last two wins. There are still very few on Carolina's bandwagon. That could change Sunday.

2. Be patient with rookie QBs

Shame on us in the media for expecting any of these first-year QBs to turn their franchises around right out of the gates. Six rookies have started games thus far this season. Only one of them — the Patriots’ Mac Jones — has won a game. And that win, naturally, came against another rookie in the Jets’ Zach Wilson.

The six rookie QBs are now a combined 1-10.

Rookie struggles are not unique to this class.

Peyton Manning went 3-13 as a rookie in 1998 in Indianapolis, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. His 28 picks are still a rookie "record."

Troy Aikman went 0-11 and tossed twice as many (18) interceptions as touchdowns (nine) in his rookie season of 1989. The Cowboys finished 1-15, the worst record in the NFL that season.

Everyone's current darling, Rams gunslinger Matthew Stafford, threw 20 interceptions in 10 games as a rookie in 2009.

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The numbers for this year's crop have been alarmingly bad thus far. Wilson has already thrown twice as many INTs in three NFL games than he did his entire 2020 season at BYU. Trevor Lawrence has already lost more NFL games (three) than he did his entire time at Clemson (two). Justin Fields just had one of the single worst statistical outings in the history of Bears quarterbacks. And if you know the history of Chicago Bears quarterbacks, that's really saying something.

Is there a lesson in all this?

Patience.

I know it's hard. But that's the key word with all of these guys. Their times will come. Or they won't. But the NFL is simply too difficult to make judgments on any of them as players after just three weeks.

3. The NFL Draft is an inexact science

We always debate NFL Draft quarterback classes, and wonder "How could someone take Trubisky over Mahomes?" or "Why was Connor Cook taken before Dak Prescott?" But it's not merely a quarterback thing.

The NFL Draft is really hard. And one great example of that is the 2020 draft's cornerback class.

Consider the first-rounders versus the second-rounders, and it's all pretty bewildering.

Jeff Okudah (third overall) struggled mightily his rookie year with the Lions and is currently out for the rest of this season with a ruptured Achilles. C.J. Henderson (ninth overall) was drafted by Jacksonville's old regime and was traded this week — for 60 cents on the dollar! — to Carolina for a reserve tight end and a Day 2 pick.

Falcons corner A.J. Terrell (16th overall), Raiders corner Damon Arnette (19th overall), and Dolphins corner Noah Igbinoghene (31st overall) have not been anything to write home about yet, either.

But the second-round cornerbacks from that draft have been nothing short of spectacular.

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson, taken 50th overall out of Utah, has started since Day 1 and has been Chicago's best defensive back this season. One spot after Johnson, Dallas selected Trevon Diggs at 51st overall out of Alabama. Diggs has been an absolute revelation for Dallas this season. His pick-six Monday night against Philadelphia not only put the game away, but was a thing of artistry. Titans cornerback Kristian Fulton, the 61st overall pick in last year's draft, has been awesome, too.

I realize that we are just three weeks into their sophomore seasons, but the three cornerbacks taken in the second round of the 2020 draft are all having better careers than the five corners taken in the first round. It's not like the scouts of those five teams went out of their way to get their boards wrong, or that there was no Scouting Combine in March of last year.

The draft is an inexact science. Quarterbacks, cornerbacks, punters, you name it. Tom Brady went 199th overall. Diggs went 51st.

4. Cooper Kupp vs. Hunter Renfrow?

Last week, I said Cooper Kupp could be the best wide receiver in football, and as expected, I got a ton of pushback. He then went out and had yet another awesome game.

I went on my show "Good Morning Football" on Tuesday and spent three minutes with fill-in guest host Golden Tate salivating over the route Kupp ran on that incredible TD from Stafford.

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As soon as I got back in my chair, I was bombarded — in classic Raiders fan fashion — by more than 1,000 tweets, all of them pointing to a Hunter Renfrow route from Las Vegas' win over Miami on Sunday. Check this one out.

So, folks, you tell me. Which route was better — Kupp's or Renfrow's? Either way, we're looking at two technicians at their craft, doing their thing, for two 3-0 teams.

5. Brady vs. Belichick is about more than Brady vs. Belichick

The Brady-Belichick stuff will be broken down 100 ways over the next few days, but I do think this one matters a lot to Tom Brady. And not because of Belichick, but because of how things ended in that stadium.

The last time Brady played a game for New England, it was a shocking playoff loss at home, in which his final pass as a Patriot was a miserable pick-six to Logan Ryan. Brady's done it all, and he has avenged just about everything in his career that required avenging (OK, Giants and Eagles fans, not everything).

I don't talk to Brady often, but I know the dude's competitive spirit well enough to know that he doesn't love the way that game went and doesn't want the stench of that pass or that loss to be the last thing he's done as a pro in that building. I think Brady will be lights-out Sunday night, and I'd be really surprised if his last pass was anything like that one.

6. "The Many Saints of Newark"

In one of the cooler nights I've had over the past 18 months, I saw "The Sopranos" prequel "The Many Saints of Newark" at the Beacon Theater last week. It was the rare prequel in which you don't have to know the 70-plus episodes from the TV show to appreciate the film. It stands alone.

I loved the film and left it all on the floor while raving about it to Bill Simmons on his podcast. And, naturally, my love for the film led me back to the original show. I have watched the entire series twice already, but figured I'd give it a whirl again while flying to and from L.A. last weekend.

Season 2 is my favorite, and I think David Proval's Richie Aprile is my favorite character on the show. Underrated moments from Richie: The face he makes when the cleaning woman's husband is wearing the leather jacket, his treatment of poor Beansie, and when he asks Janice, "Did you ever think you'd see Richie Aprile doing downward facing dog?"

See the movie. Re-watch the show. It's so, so good.

Peter Schrager is an NFL writer for FOX Sports and a host of "Good Morning Football" on NFL Network.