National Football League

Peter Schrager's Cheat Sheet: Chiefs, Packers face offensive changes

Updated Sep. 11, 2022 11:40 a.m. ET

By Peter Schrager
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

My Cheat Sheet is back for another NFL season, and apparently, we have a sponsor? Little Caesars.

I grew up in central New Jersey, where there weren't any Little Caesars, but the commercials still ran on TV all day, every day. That pizza … it was my white whale. Wanted it. No access.

Well, if you told that gangly kid in the Derrick Coleman Nets jersey that someday he'd not only be affiliated with the "Pizza Pizza" brand, but that he'd get to talk about football in some aligned fashion with the mascot? I'd tell you that dreams do come true.

Big year for Chiefs' offense, Packers need help at WR, dark horse predictions & more | Peter Schrager's Cheat Sheet

In the Week 1 edition of Peter Schrager's cheat sheet, Schrager discusses if Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs' offense will make a statement this season, if the Green Bay Packers need help at WR for star QB Aaron Rodgers, if Trey Lance will step up for the San Francisco 49ers, dark horse predictions for the upcoming season and more!

As for the Cheat Sheet, here's what it is: five thoughts, insights, some reporting, some analysis. It's something to read while you're on your phone on your morning commute or awaiting more "Don't Worry Darling" photos to pop up on your screen.

I love sportswriting. It's my first passion. It all started with FoxSports.com and this column many years ago.

Where do we start in Week 1? How about the site of the most exhilarating AFC divisional-round game in NFL history and maybe the most shocking AFC Championship Game, as well.

1. The Kansas City Chiefs offense is going to be OK.

More than OK.

Yes, the Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill this offseason, but that was a "rubber hits the road" decision, and one that every key figure in the organization was on board with when it was finally done.

As much as the finality of saying farewell to Hill might have pained Patrick Mahomes, I can assure you that the Chiefs' QB was by no means caught off-guard by the trade, and that it was several weeks in the making. Throughout the process, there were conversations and transparency from top to bottom of the C-suite in the organization.

Does Patrick Mahomes deserve more respect?

Nick Wright joins Colin Cowherd to discuss whether Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is getting enough respect this offseason.

Hill is a Chiefs legend and a potential Pro Football Hall of Famer. But he had a certain number he wanted with his next contract, and there were multiple other teams willing to pay him that money. The Chiefs simply weren't one of them; not with the dollars they already had on their books, and what they had planned financially for the next several seasons.

That's a hard decision to make. Super Bowl hero. Most electric receiver in the league, and no doubt the best to ever play in K.C.

How do you say goodbye? But when you have your head coach, general manager, owner and star quarterback all brought into conversations ahead of it, there's no discord and no moment of "I found out from Twitter" when the trade is executed.

Hill is going to be 30 in 2024. Are his best years ahead of him or behind him? We'll see. And Chiefs brass will likely be rooting for him to prove them wrong — but the numbers didn't make sense.

Insert JuJu Smith-Schuster, who looks great and is going to put up better numbers than the fantasy experts are projecting.

Insert Marquez Valdes-Scantling, a big-body wideout with blazing, big-play speed.

Insert Skyy Moore, an exciting rookie who tore it up in the MAC and is expected to play a role.

Insert Justin Watson, a very interesting name to watch this season, and a guy who simply couldn't crack the lineup in Tampa Bay but was the star of Chiefs minicamp back in May and June.

Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce are there still, and so is Jody Fortson, an exciting 2019 third-round pick who started to really come on this summer in preseason action. Noah Gray has shown flashes, too.

That's a lot of old and new weapons at the receiver and tight end spots. Seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco also will play a role, wearing Hill's old No. 10.

Plus, the Chiefs have Clyde Edwards Helaire, Jerick McKinnon and Ronald Jones to tote the rock.

Tyreek Hill's absence won't lower expectations in K.C.

Nick Wright takes a look at the Chiefs' offensive weapons after Tyreek Hill's departure for Miami.

I love when teams evolve and don't burn out by living in the past and making decisions based on nostalgia. If Hill could have worked under the salary cap, of course, Kansas City wouldn't have traded him away. He didn't. And he gets a new start in Miami.

But that doesn't mean Andy Reid is going to pack up his playbook and go home. If anything, I think Reid's offense might have some new wrinkles to it.

Teams have given up on stars too soon in the past. But on this one, I'll roll the dice on Mahomes, Reid and GM Brett Veach. This train isn't stopping.

2. Green Bay's big question isn't the WR position.

I know the topic dominated conversation on my NFL Network show "Good Morning Football" and was the biggest question of the Packers' offseason. However, I think Matt LaFleur is too damn creative an offensive mind, and Aaron Rodgers is too damn good a QB, to not figure out who's catching the ball this season.

Whether it's Romeo Doubs or Sammy Watkins or some running back/tight end-focused offense, this HC and QB will get it done.

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Craig Carton wonders whether Aaron Rodgers' silence ahead of Week 1 means that the Packers' QB is focusing on adding another Super Bowl ring.

But all that will be a secondary concern if Rodgers is on his back all season.

The health of Green Bay's offensive line is by far the bigger X-factor heading into the season. Green Bay's coaching staff and front office did a masterful job mixing and matching amid a slew of injuries to the unit last season, holding up with a patchwork of rookies and veterans moving in and out of their natural positions.

Those guys who stepped up were awesome. The expectation is starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are going to be back to their old awesome selves when they return. But it sounds like one or neither will be back on the field for Week 1.

The bright spot of camp has been fourth-round pick Zach Tom, who stepped up and looked more than worthy of being a first-line player in the preseason. But the season is a long one, and without Davante Adams out there, and with former OC Nathaniel Hackett in Denver and former QB coach Luke Getsy in Chicago, that's a lot on Rodgers' plate.

The most important face on the Packers' sideline might very well be Adam Stenavich. Who? The former Michigan offensive lineman was the team's O-line coach a season ago, and was widely credited for the work the unit did. He's the OC now. Big step up.

What the Packers' offensive line did last year was magical. Are we sure they can do it again for 17 regular-season games and then the playoff push? The Week 1 starting lineup could very well be Yosuah Nijman, Jon Runyan Jr., Josh Myers, Jake Hanson and Royce Newman. Those aren't household names, but maybe they can do the job yet again. Still, Jenkins and Bakhtiari are legit stars.

O-line talk might not get TV ratings or clicks. It's not as sexy as obsessing over who's catching the balls and whether Rodgers will give an exasperated look at a rookie receiver in Week 3 or Week 7. But if Rodgers is under pressure all season, who's running which route could end up being back-burner stuff.

3. The Trey Lance Question

The question isn't whether the Niners are all-in on Lance. They are. They wouldn't have handed him the keys to the starting QB job in February after the NFC Championship Game loss if they weren't.

They also wouldn't have built him up in the media and sold how hard he was working and how great it was going all offseason if it wasn't his gig to lose.

Is Trey Lance ready to take over?

Emmanuel Acho, Joy Taylor, LeSean McCoy and David Helman discuss whether the 49ers made the right move by going with Trey Lance as their starting QB.

The question is whether he's ready for this. And I don't mean starting in the NFL. There have been many less-experienced QBs thrown into the fire. But is Lance ready for all the expectations that come with being an inexperienced young QB surrounded by veteran players looking to win a ring now? The Jimmy G factor is stealing all the headlines, and maybe the awkwardness of his presence as the backup will become a big deal as the season goes on.

But I look more at guys such as Trent Williams, 34, Kyle Juszczyk, 31, George Kittle, 28, and the many other superstars on both sides of the ball who have tasted one or two NFC Championship Games over the past three years. If Lance is slow out of the gate, or worse off, overwhelmed — how will those veterans respond?

I've been around enough locker rooms where the veteran backup QB provides a sense of warmth and confidence that the young draft pick starter does not. That doesn't typically go well. How will a veteran team respond to a struggling young QB who didn't outright "win" the job, when the guy who won games in Dallas and Green Bay in January is right there in the locker room?

Lance grades off the charts in both athleticism and smarts. But the 49ers kind of need him to be good now. That's a big ask for a guy who only has started a combined 21 college and pro games.

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4. My Outside-the-Box Maybe Sorta Dark Horse Predictions

MVP:

Who I Think Wins: Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos

Darkhorse Winner: Jameis Winston, QB, Saints

Defensive Player of the Year:

Who I Think Wins: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams

Darkhorse Winner: Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Colts

Offensive Rookie of the Year:

Who I Think Wins: Breece Hall, RB, Jets

Darkhorse Winner: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks

Defensive Rookie of the Year:

Who I Think Wins: George Karlaftis, Chiefs

Darkhorse Winner: Micheal Clemons, Jets

NFL Coach of the Year:

Who I Think Wins: Nathaniel Hackett, Broncos

Darkhorse Winner: Arthur Smith, Falcons

Comeback Player of the Year:

Who I Think Wins: Christian McCaffery, Panthers

Darkhorse Winner: Julio Jones, Buccaneers

5. Some Schrager Recc's

I had a whole summer of watching PRESTIGE TV and listening to new podcasts. Some thoughts to pass along:

– I absolutely loved "The Offer" on Paramount+. I've heard a lot of criticism about the accuracy of the show documenting the making of "The Godfather" and that it wasn't 100 percent true to life. I don't know. Guess what? I don't care.

I thought it was wildly entertaining, loved Miles Teller as Al Ruddy and thought the look and feel of the 1970s was mastered in a way that rarely has been done outside of a Paul Thomas Anderson flick.

One other bright spot: Jake Cannavale. Bobby's son is tremendous as the soft-hearted mobster Caesar. All in all, it's 10 episodes, it's fun, and both Teller and Matthew Goode should be up for Emmy consideration. Accurate? Again, I don't care. I feel the same way about "Winning Time." I'm here for the entertainment. Sorry, Jerry West.

– I can't get my head around the fact that Nathan Fielder was given such a budget for "The Rehearsal," but I am so happy he was. It's fantastic and weird and just wild enough to bring back for a second season.

– The podcast I found myself really enjoying was Dana Carvey and David Spade's "Fly on the Wall." The guest list is unparalleled as far as comedy goes, and Carvey and Spade have a real big brother/little brother thing going on.

I wouldn't be so out of line to say Lorne Michaels serves as a looming showbiz father figure. The interviews with "SNL" alums such as Bill Hader and Jon Lovitz and veteran writer Jim Downey are perfect for any and all "SNL" diehards.

Hey, football's here. Enjoy the games.

Peter Schrager is an NFL writer for FOX Sports and a host of "Good Morning Football" on NFL Network.