National Football League

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Prediction, odds, picks

Updated Sep. 25, 2023 5:39 p.m. ET

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The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) are considered favorites (-5) according to the bookmakers ahead of their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) on Monday night. 

The Eagles were victorious in Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings 34-28, while the Buccaneers took down the Chicago Bears 27-17 in their Week 2 contest. 

Which one of these squads will remain undefeated going into Week 4?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Eagles-Buccaneers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Chris "The Bear" Fallica:

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Lines

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Tampa Bay (+5) 
• Pick OU: Over (46) 
• Prediction: Philadelphia 24 - Tampa Bay 23

Pick via FOX Sports Wagering Expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica

This line looks eerily low, but I’m gonna bite.

I don’t think the Eagles are the team they were last year, but despite being 2-0, there really isn't much to like about the Buccaneers. They won a turnover fest in Minnesota and then beat arguably the worst team in the league in Chicago. 

The Eagles defense is the best unit on the field, and I’d expect it to show that here. 

PICK: Eagles (-4.5 at time of pick) to win by more than 4.5 points

How to Watch Philadelphia vs. Tampa Bay

• Game Date: Monday, Sept. 25, 2023
• Time: 7:15 PM ET
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• Location: Tampa, Florida
• TV: Watch on ABC

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Recent Matchups

• In their past five head-to-head bouts, Philadelphia has taken down Tampa Bay three times.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Tampa Bay has racked up 127 points, while Philadelphia has tallied 125.

Philadelphia Betting Info

• Philadelphia covered eight times in 17 matchups with a spread last season.
• As 5-point favorites or more, the Eagles went 7-8 against the spread last year.
• Last season, nine Philadelphia games went over the point total.
• The Eagles put together a 14-2 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 87.5% of those games).
• Philadelphia had a 14-2 record last year (winning 87.5% of its games) when it played as a moneyline favorite of -218 or shorter.
• Based on this game's moneyline, the Eagles have an implied win probability of 68.6%.

Eagles Stats (2022)

Philadelphia's Key Players

Offense

• In 15 games played last year, Jalen Hurts totaled 3,701 passing yards (10th-best in the NFL), with 22 touchdowns against six interceptions and completing 66.5% of his attempts.
• Hurts also rushed for 13 touchdowns and 760 yards.
• A.J. Brown put together a 2022 stat sheet that included 88 catches for 1,496 yards (fourth in the NFL) and 11 receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL) over 17 games played. He was on the receiving end of 145 targets and averaged 5.2 receptions per game.
• Over the course of 13 games for the Falcons last season, Marcus Mariota racked up 2,219 passing yards, with 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions and completing 61.3% of his passes.
• Mariota also rushed for four touchdowns and 438 yards.
• DeVonta Smith was targeted 136 times, resulting in 95 catches for 1,196 yards (ninth in the NFL) .

Defense

• Haason Reddick had 49 tackles, 11 TFL, 16 sacks, and three passes defended in 2022.
• Nicholas Morrow had 116 tackles, 11 TFL, and one interception for the Bears.
• Josh Sweat had 48 tackles, 15 TFL, 11 sacks, and one interception in the 2022 season.
• Brandon Graham's season stats include 35 tackles, 11 TFL, and 11 sacks over 16 games.

Tampa Bay Betting Info

• Tampa Bay put together a 4-12-1 ATS record last season.
• The Buccaneers had no wins ATS (0-1) as underdogs of 5 points or more last season.
• Tampa Bay games hit the over six out of 17 times last year.
• Last season, the Buccaneers were listed as the underdog in three games and failed to win any of those contests.
• Last season, Tampa Bay was at least a +180 underdog on the moneyline one time, losing that contest.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 35.7% chance of a victory for the Buccaneers.

Buccaneers Stats (2022)

Tampa Bay's Key Players

Offense

• Last year, Mike Evans had 77 catches for 1,124 yards with six receiving TDs. He was targeted 127 times and averaged 5.1 receptions in 15 games.
• In 12 games, Baker Mayfield had 2,163 passing yards, throwing for 10 TDs with eight INTs and completing 60% of his passes.
• He also added 89 yards rushing, while scoring one TD on the ground (averaging 7.4 yards per game and 2.9 per carry).
• Chris Godwin put up 1,023 yards receiving and three TDs on 104 receptions (eighth in the NFL) while being targeted 142 times last season.
• Rachaad White scored one TD on the ground, while running for 481 total yards (3.7 per carry and 28.3 per game).
• White also had 290 receiving yards (17.1 per game) on 50 catches (2.9 per game). He was targeted 58 times and caught two TD passes.

Defense

• Devin White amassed 5.5 sacks to go along with eight TFL and 124 tackles in his 17 games in 2022.
• Lavonte David put up 124 tackles, 10 TFL, three sacks, and five passes defended.
• Antoine Winfield Jr. picked off one pass on top of 80 tackles, seven TFL, four sacks, and three passes defended in 2022.
• Carlton Davis' production included one INT plus 63 tackles, three TFL, and 12 passes defended in 13 games.

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NFL - Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 09/25/2023

Chris Fallica