Pressures, Hurries, Knockdowns: Oakland Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
Which Oakland Raiders are under the most pressure heading into Week 16? As well as quick notes, and where the Raiders have proved the critics wrong.
The Oakland Raiders clinched their first playoff berth since 2002, but still have work to do. Namely, winning the AFC West.
They’re currently in good shape to do so, up one game on the Chiefs with two to play. The Raiders play the Colts at home this weekend, and end their season at Mile High in Denver on January 2.
Oakland bounced back from a disappointing loss to Kansas City with a victory in San Diego (aka Oakland South) last Sunday to reclaim the AFC West lead. They need to keep that train rolling. If they win out they will win the AFC West and possibly put themselves in contention for the AFC’s #1 seed.
The Raiders offense has stagnated a bit in recent weeks as Derek Carr plays through a pinky injury, but the defense has stepped up. Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin — Batman and Robin are game-wreckers and claimed three of the last four AFC Defensive Player of the Week awards.
T.J. Carrie is making the case that he should’ve started all season, and the Perry Riley Jr. is leading a resurgent linebacking corps to better run fits and positional football.
The Colts are on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in but have played quite well in recent weeks. They torched the normally stout Minnesota Vikings defense for 36 points and 411 yards. They did it in a balanced manner, with 250 yards and two TDs passing and 161 yards and 2 TDs rushing.
Andrew Luck is playing lights-out football over the past month. The Colts offensive line has Jack Mewhort back and is playing much better in protection and the run game. This team is looking like many expected them to during a late-season surge.
The Raiders need this game to stay up on the Chiefs and keep their winning ways rolling. Who’s under the most pressure in this game? What are some things we thought that we were maybe wrong about?
When, if ever, will Frank Gore slow down, let alone retire?
Let’s find out!
Dec 18, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) gestures before the snap from center Rodney Hudson (61) during the second quarter against the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Pressures
Derek Carr
I did this once before and acknowledged it was silly. I will again, except this — since hurting his pinky finger, Carr has resembled DC circa 2014 more than DC early 2016.
Carr is still playing at a high level and still leading this team to wins. Heck, he did it in the game he got hurt even. But in the two games since, against the Chiefs and Chargers, he’s barely thrown the ball more than ten yards in the air during game time.
In the Panthers game, when Carr got hurt in the third quarter, he still finished with 315 yards, 2 TDs and another comeback victory. The Raiders averaged 7.8 yards per pass play in that game and Carr himself 8.75 yards per attempt.
In the Buffalo game, Carr was decent but not his usual self. He only completed 54.3% of his passes — though he did average 7.3 yards per attempt and throw two TDs.
Now, all credit as deserved to the Chiefs defense as they are great and played as such on December 8. However anyone who has watched Carr for five minutes could tell you he wasn’t right in that game, and hasn’t been since.
Carr had the worst statistical game of his NFL career in this one. He completed 17 of 41 passes (41.4%) for 117 yards and no TDs. The Raiders in this game averaged 2.6 yards per pass play. Carr? 2.8 yards per attempt.
This from a guy who led the NFL in passes that travelled more than 20 air yards prior to the Chiefs game.
As I said, the Chiefs have a great defense. The Chargers? Good, not great. Yet this is what the Raiders did in that game through the air…
Carr threw for 213 yards on 19/30 passing with one TD and one INT. The Raiders gained 6.2 yards per pass play. Carr averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.
In the last two games, Carr has gone 36 for 71 (50.2%) for 330 yards, one TD and one pick, with an average of 4.65 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 65.4.
In the thirteen games prior, Carr was 281/423 (66.4%) for 3115 yards, 22 TDs and 5 INTs with an average of 7.36 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 91.4
Carr is under pressure to get back to slinging the ball downfield a little more. With the Colts ability to light up the scoreboard, it may be necessary to keep pace with Luck and Co. Is Carr healthy? The fact that he hasn’t taken a single snap from under center since the Carolina game would indicate no, not 100%.
It doesn’t matter. Carr ripped it in the Carolina game. Latavius Murray and company have run well the past two games, but Carr has barely looked downfield and been far too comfortable throwing it short. That isn’t this offense, and the fact that they could only muster 19 points against the Chargers and have stagnated on four red-zone drives in the past two games tells you all you need to know there.
Musgrave also has to let him rip. Obviously the game plan has changed a bit and been more conservative to protect Carr. Well, enough of that noise. It didn’t work against KC and it didn’t work against San Diego. The Raiders are lucky the Chargers are a hot mess and their own defense stepped up, or they’d be 0 for their last 2.
Musgrave has been on the end of a lot of criticism this season, mostly unwarranted. But he’s gotta take the reins off again and stop protecting Carr, because Carr makes good decisions and good throws when given the chance.
Oct 2, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith, Sr. (89) breaks the tackle of Oakland Raiders cornerback David Amerson (29) on his way to scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Pressures
David Amerson and Sean Smith
The Raiders defense has played well in recent weeks, but Mr. Smith and Mr. Amerson have been conspicuously victimized on a few deep balls of note.
Amerson was torched repeatedly by the dynamic Tyreek Hill against Kansas City, and Smith let Travis Benjamin get the better of him a few times last Sunday.
The common denominator here? Small, shifty, quick as hell receivers that the big boys have trouble covering.
Guess who the best receiver on the Colts is? T.Y Hilton, a small, shifty, quick as hell receiver who is also a polished route runner and has Velcro for hands.
But it doesn’t stop there. The Colts big man, Donte Moncrief, is nursing an injury. So another small, shifty, quick as hell receiver named Philip Dorsett has stepped up in his place.
That leaves big, lumbering Amerson and Smith — who for some reason don’t jam small guys nearly enough at the line — to cover these two waterbugs, with T.J. Carrie in the mix as well.
Hilton is the third-leading receiver in the NFL with 1248 yards, and is by far Andrew Luck’s favorite target. Hilton is behind only Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones, and slightly ahead of Antonio Brown. He is an elite receiver.
Dorsett stepped up last week against the Vikings when star corner Xavier Rhodes concentrated on Hilton. And when they were both covered? Former Miami Hurricane basketball star Erik Swoope got open from his TE position for a couple of big plays.
The Colts have a dynamic offense and Frank Gore is still a top NFL running back. He likes to get into corners and use his strength and stiff-arm to gain yardage.
Smith and Amerson are under pressure to keep Hilton and Dorsett in front of them, and to step up and make solid tackles in run support. Gore is still a beast and still an aggressive runner, and these corners need to get into him and let him know he can’t push past them.
December 4, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders strong safety Nate Allen (20) is congratulated by defensive end Jihad Ward (95) for intercepting the football against the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter at Oakland Coliseum. The Raiders defeated the Bills 38-24. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
HURRIES
Next: Raiders Week 15 Knockdowns
Dec 4, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) stands in the team huddle against the Buffalo Bills in the second quarter at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Knockdowns
The Raiders Aren’t a Playoff Team
Said Sports Illustrated. And Pete Prisco and Jared Wilson of CBS Sports. USA Today too. Also, numerous other experts, pundits and websites.
Guess what? They are. Already.
There were many other experts who thought the Raiders would make the playoffs, but the majority I saw prior to the season — especially prior to the season — predicated otherwise.
The Raiders schedule is too tough. Too many 1 pm road games. The team is too young. All fair.
Only the schedule hasn’t proven too tough, as the Raiders have lost three times and to only two teams. They are 5-0 in 1 pm road games. They’re still very young, but the veteran leadership they have at key positions has been of the utmost importance.
Now many of those same experts have come around, namely because they have no choice. The Raiders Prisco slogged in the offseason are #3 in his personal power rankings.
It can’t be denied. The Raiders have been winning in all shapes and forms. They’ve won shootouts, road games. Night games. Day games. Home games. Close games. Comebacks. Salted away games with the run. They’ve done it in all manner, against all teams.
The only games they have lost have been to teams (Atlanta, KC twice) who are currently in the playoffs and likely to remain there. Against all other lesser competition, the Raiders have handled their business.
It’s paramount for them to continue to handle their business this weekend. Win again, and it forces the Chiefs to win out to have a chance. Win again, it puts pressure on the Patriots to win out to ensure the #1 seed.
Lose this weekend and it opens the door for KC to climb back atop the AFC West, and the Patriots to clinch the #1 seed with a win over the lowly Jets.
That’s what happens when you’re a good team at this time of year – every game is a big game.
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