National Football League

QB Confidential: Which rookie quarterback will have the best debut season?

Published Sep. 4, 2024 8:22 a.m. ET

We cover a wide range of topics in FOX Sports' Quarterback Confidential, an anonymous survey of 38 NFL passers that will roll out in full on Thursday, and it wouldn't be complete without asking about the league's talented class of rookie QBs.

An unprecedented six quarterbacks were drafted in the top 12 picks in April, including the top three overall picks, with USC's Caleb Williams going first to the Bears, LSU's Jayden Daniels second to the Commanders and North Carolina's Drake Maye third to the Patriots. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. then went No. 8 overall to the Falcons, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy went 10th to the Vikings and Oregon's Bo Nix went 12th to the Broncos.

Of those six, only three will be Week 1 starters: Williams, Daniels and Nix. McCarthy was lost to a season-ending knee injury in preseason (note that some of this survey was conducted before his injury), Maye will start the year as a backup to Jacoby Brissett, and Penix will back up Kirk Cousins in Atlanta.

So, we asked our quarterbacks: Which rookie will have the best debut season this fall? You need look back no further than last year to know that draft order doesn't always line up with immediate success. The Texans' C.J. Stroud, picked second in 2023, led Houston to a playoff win and made the Pro Bowl, while the Panthers' Bryce Young, who was picked first, struggled mightily as a rookie.

Nevertheless, Williams, the No. 1 overall pick this year, was easily the most popular choice in our survey, named by 22 of the 36 quarterbacks who had a response.

"That's the best situation I've ever seen a first overall pick go to," said one quarterback. Another said Williams "has the best supporting cast," and another cited "the pieces around him."

Fourteen QBs, however, didn't choose Williams, which is not insignificant. One quarterback was torn between Daniels and Nix, eventually choosing the Broncos rookie. Daniels took second with seven votes, Nix followed with five votes, and no other rookie was chosen more than once.

Final results:

Caleb Williams, Bears: 22
Jayden Daniels, Commanders: 7
Bo Nix, Broncos: 5
J.J. McCarthy, Vikings: 1
John Rhys Plumlee, Jaguars: 1

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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