National Football League

QB Stock Market Week 18: The MVP no one’s talking about

Published Dec. 31, 2024 9:13 a.m. ET

The holidays were wild for everyone, including — perhaps most of all — the folks in the NFL.

There were blowouts. There was fuel for the kaleidoscopic MVP picture. There was playoff drama and there was No. 1 overall pick drama. There was something good for everyone.

Except the Cleveland Browns. There was, as usual, nothing for good them. I'm so very sorry. Maybe you guys can enjoy the ride for a guy like Sam Darnold, who was — for a time — the quarterbacking version of the Browns. If he can turn things around, so can Cleveland.

A small note: the injuries to Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts — combined with poor performances from the QBs in the low teens — created an elevation that might strike people as strange. Let's chalk that up to a lopsided week of football.

Happy New Year from the QB Stock Market, where we weigh the most recent performances with 30% importance, while applying 70% to the rest of 2024. One question holds importance above all others: What have you done for your team lately?

Previous weeks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (⬆️ 3)

Can we talk about the guy who's actually most valuable?

I'm not talking about the MVP award, which will of course go to Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. That award is about narratives, wins and stats — in that order.

I'm talking about the player most responsible for his team's success.

Right now, that's Burrow.

Burrow is playing quarterback better than anyone else in the NFL, in large part because he has no choice. He might not have as many wins as the other guys atop this list. But he's contributed more toward Cincinnati's pursuit of victories than any of the other guys atop this list for their respective teams.

Burrow hasn't had his back against the wall all year — he's been up against the wood chipper. I blame Zac Taylor (and Bengals ownership) for yet another poor start in Cincy. And now, the Bengals are only playoff-relevant because of Burrow's 4,641 passing yards (1st in NFL) and 42 touchdowns (1st). But because they're only barely playoff relevant, he'll never win the MVP.

We've seen Burrow elevate to a new level, particularly in the second half of this season — and that's because his team has forced him to be truly transcendent. Maybe he won't make the playoffs. Maybe he won't finish with a .500 record this year.

But let's give Burrow credit. He was the best QB in the NFL this week. And this season, he's been more valuable to his team than either Jackson or Allen.

Does Joe Burrow belong in the MVP race?

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (⬇️ 1)
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (⬇️ 1)
4. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (⬇️ 1)
5. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (↔)

You spend your whole life trying to teach your kid to do the right thing.

And if you're lucky, your kid will find themselves a Kevin O'Connell, who can take apparently anyone (yes, including Darnold) and help them find the correct path through difficult situations.

It's been like that all year.

And it has only gotten better. Darnold is peaking at the right time. This is by far the best he has played in his seven NFL seasons.

Look at that final drive when the Vikings needed to protect their two-point lead by moving the chains. O'Connell trusted his quarterback to throw the football. They closed out the game by throwing the ball in running situations. In the four plays that mattered on that final drive, they threw the ball three times and ran just once. They did that because Darnold is the real deal. He was 3 of 3 for 28 yards and two first downs.

He's been the best kind of a game manager. (And I mean that in a genuinely kind way.)

"I felt comfortable with Sam in those moments, and I loved how some of those [passes] married up with some of the runs we'd either done late in games throughout the year or even tonight in the game," O'Connell said postgame.

Darnold has made the Vikings' QB situation awfully complicated for the offseason.

Will they pay up to re-sign him or move on to rookie J.J. McCarthy in 2025?

If Darnold plays this well in the playoffs, it actually won't be complicated at all. He'll be the obvious choice.

Can Sam Darnold lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl?

6. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (⬆️ 1)

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Chiefs seem to have just about everything clicking into place in time for the playoffs.

Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury, but he's going to get two weekends off with Carson Wentz starting in Week 18 and the Chiefs locking up a first-round bye in the postseason. And naturally, Mahomes has already made a Super Bowl run with an ankle injury. It didn't stop him then. That's not going to stop him now.

But more importantly, the Chiefs have a diversified group of pass-catchers. You can see, finally, why Kansas City was so high on Marquise Brown, who might not have been prolific in his debut but showed an established rapport with Mahomes that goes back to training camp. DeAndre Hopkins is steady and comfortable in the offense. Xavier Worthy is beginning to click in the offense in the same way that Rashee Rice did at this time last year, according to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. And then Travis Kelce can flip the switch in the postseason, even when he's lagging in the regular season. Come January, he'll be back to being the Chiefs' top weapon.

In the meantime, Mahomes completed 76% of his passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers, who I'd previously considered the NFL's best defense.

On the offensive line, it's still a bit murky on Mahomes' blindside, but they seem to be on the verge of putting D.J. Humphries at left tackle and upgrading the position that has been more unsatisfactory than any other since Daniel Sorensen's ignominious time as a starting safety.

It's good to be Mahomes right now. Everything is lining up for a three-peat.

7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (⬇️ 1)
8. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (⬆️ 1)
9. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (⬆️ 3)

There's a 19% chance that the Buccaneers and Mayfield miss the playoffs.

That would be a shame.

I blinked during their game against the Panthers — and Mayfield had five touchdowns.

The Bucs QB has four games with four or more passing touchdowns and, with 39 on the season, there's an outside chance he could lead the NFL this year. (Joe Burrow sits at No. 1 with 42.) Mayfield has had a rare blend of injuries to key playmakers, not unlike Brock Purdy. And he's had to combat a bad defense, worse than the Ravens defense that Jackson gets credit for overcoming. All the while, Mayfield has steadied the ship with consistent — and often superb — play on offense. He deserves more praise than he's getting for what he's done this year.

The Buccaneers could be the 49ers.

Instead, Tampa still has an outside shot at a Super Bowl, because of Mayfield.

10. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (⬇️ 2)
11. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (⬇️ 1)
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (⬆️ 3)
13. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (⬆️ 3)

Three things are true about Bo Nix's performance.

1) Nix had a tremendous fourth-quarter, fourth-down, final-moment touchdown to send the game to overtime. It's exactly the type of throw you want to see from a QB with not just the game but the playoffs on the line. And it was an even better catch.

2) Sean Payton didn't set up his QB to succeed in overtime.
3) Nix wasn't good in overtime.

It's not good enough in the NFL to get your team into overtime. And even when the coach is content to settle for a tie — perhaps at risk of ending up with a loss — you have to do better than what Nix did. He only threw four passes, and two of them were checkdowns. The other two? They were third-down incompletions where Nix missed open receivers. The first was an overthrow to Troy Franklin for what would've been about 25 yards. And then the other was an off-target pass to Adam Trautman for what would've converted a third-and-7.

"I've got to hit those. That's what NFL quarterbacks do," Nix said. "I feel like I kind of let [my team] down."

I can't spot the lie.

It's a learning experience for Nix, a rookie. But he better learn it fast, because next week, he needs a win against the Kansas City Chiefs — or else the Broncos could miss the postseason.

14. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (⬆️ 3)
15. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (⬆️ 5)
16. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (⬇️ 2)
17. Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons (⬆️ 7)
18. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (⬆️ 2)
19. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (⬇️ 1)

I can't recall another game where Stroud missed as many open receivers as he did on Christmas Day against the Ravens.

"Terrible on my behalf. Probably one of the worst games of my whole career," Stroud said afterward. "Didn't lead the offense the way I should've. Always have to look myself in the mirror and be honest with myself."

He was inaccurate when his guys were open. (On the team's second drive, he threw three consecutive incompletions on makeable throws. All three passes had a completion probability of 63% or better, per Next Gen Stats.) He looked hesitant to throw into tight windows. And then there were moments when he threw incompletions into tight windows when an open checkdown was waiting for him.

In short, something is wrong with Stroud.

It's been like this for weeks, but this is the worst we've seen it. And it's not like the Ravens defense, maligned all year, is the reason. No, there are a handful of problems at play, from Stroud's accuracy to his decision-making to OC Bobby Slowik's system.

Stroud has turned from truck to trailer — and a cumbersome one. He was asked what the difference has been from last year to this year.

"I've tried to approach it the same way I did," Stroud said. "I'm seeing it better than I ever have. Just a little banged up, so I'm not making plays. That's a terrible excuse but really just not making plays. It can be fixed."

How?

No one — not even Stroud — has an answer.

20. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts (new)
21. Drake Maye, New England Patriots (⬆️ 1)

There's been a lot of conversation about a lost season for Caleb Williams, who has struggled to develop in a situation where growth seems impossible.

But maybe that's exactly what Maye has done.

He sat out to start the season, but since he's taken over in Week 6, everything has gotten better. You wouldn't know it because the team is so bad — as most recently demonstrated by their 40-7 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Maye has sped up the offense with 2.74 seconds on time to throw when compared to Jacoby Brissett's 2.87, per Next Gen Stats. His sack percentage (7.9%) is lower than Brissett's (9.6%) and you could argue the line has gotten worse as the season wore on. Maye's completion percentage is 66.8%, which is 2.2% over expected — Brissett's is 59.8% with a CPOE of -.8%. Maye has a negative EPA per dropback at -.07, but it's better than Brissett's -.24.

Maye's film shows a guy whose counting stats (15 TDs; 10 INTs) are nonsense. His offense is defined by missed opportunities and his teammates' failed execution. He's not perfect by any stretch. But Maye has justified the No. 3 selection — he has special talent.

If this team blows up its leadership team and brings in a new group, I could see Maye being the only returning starter in 2025.

22. Kenny Pickett, Philadelphia Eagles (new)
23. Tyler Huntley, Miami Dolphins (new)
24. Drew Lock, New York Giants (⬆️ 8)
25. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (⬇️ 2)
26. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (⬆️ 3)
27. Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (↔)
28. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints (⬆️ 2)
29. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (⬇️ 3)
30. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys (⬇️ 5)
31. Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans (⬇️ 3)
32. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns (⬇️ 1)

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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