National Football League

Ranking all 14 playoff QBs, from Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes to Texans' C.J. Stroud

Published Jan. 8, 2025 12:43 p.m. ET

These 14 players are going to have the heaviest hand in determining who wins the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks win MVP trophies. They win Super Bowl MVP trophies. Why? Because quarterback is the most powerful position in sports, and quarterbacks have the most influence over a game’s outcome.

Let's take some time to celebrate the field of QBs for the postseason.

I've ranked this group as a projection of how I think they'll fare in the playoffs. This isn't based, necessarily, on what they did in the regular season. You can check out my QB Stock Market to see where I rate those performances.

This is about what's to come — and which players I anticipate will be most valuable this postseason. Let's dive in.

TIER 1: THE KING

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

He has had the worst regular season of his career. And it doesn't matter. He's still — without question — the quarterback every team would want for the postseason this year.

Not only did the Chiefs finish 15-2 on the season, but Mahomes is 15-3 in the postseason in his career, and — you've probably heard — he has won the past two Super Bowls. Maybe wins aren't a quarterback stat. But I'd contend playoff wins are, in fact, a quarterback stat.

He's No. 1 until someone takes him down. Speaking of which …

TIER 2: CAPABLE OF TAKING DOWN THE KING

2. Josh Allen, Bills

Let's talk about the guy who was the last QB to beat Mahomes. Allen took down Mahomes in Buffalo in Week 11. And it required an incredible performance, highlighted by Allen's 26-yard rushing touchdown that converted a fourth down and proved to be the go-ahead score. It was a clutch play in Allen's bruising, brutal style.

Allen is dangerous, with a unique ability to conjure big plays in desperation moments. Plus, in a recent development, he has limited his turnovers. If he can finally get past Mahomes in the postseason (which he's never done), then Allen will be a Super Bowl winner.

I think it's that simple.

3. Jared Goff, Lions

He's the best pocket passer in the game in the best system in the NFL with an absolutely diabolical rushing attack that perfectly balances Goff's strengths. With OC Ben Johnson on the headset and designing plays, Goff is truly elite. And don't forget that this QB has been to the Super Bowl, even if Bill Belichick wiped the floor with a 24-year-old Goff in that game. I genuinely believe that experience was valuable.

4. Lamar Jackson, Ravens

He's the best dual-threat QB in the NFL — better statistically than Allen. But Jackson's postseason struggles — he's 2-4 with six touchdowns and six picks — make for an unusually tough sell for such a talented player.

He's in my top five because he could win the MVP every year for the rest of his career and no one would argue. But that's a regular-season award. And we haven't seen Jackson do much in this single-elimination format.

Is Lamar Jackson's season a failure without a Super Bowl?

5. Matthew Stafford, Rams

He's still got it. So does coach Sean McVay.

The Rams remind me of the 2007 Giants. It's not about being good in Week 1. It's about being a championship team in January and February. Stafford has kept the Rams in the playoff hunt and, now, it seems like L.A. has what it needs to play spoiler in the NFC.

6. Jalen Hurts, Eagles

Everyone loves the Eagles this year. And there is a lot to like. But not from Hurts.

He started the season with turnover issues and difficulties adjusting to the new-ish scheme. He and the offense relied enormously on Saquon Barkley. And the defense is the true strength for Philly. I'm not saying Hurts can't win a Super Bowl. He can. But if the Eagles do win it, might Saquon be the Super Bowl MVP? Philly might be the rare exception in that sense, which is why Hurts ranks low in this tier.

TIER 4: ABSOLUTELY ON FIRE BUT UNPROVEN IN THE POSTSEASON

7. Sam Darnold, Vikings

Gosh, I love what's happening with Darnold.

He's a refreshing comeback story. Maybe his narrative isn't unique. We've seen this happen with Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield in recent years. But Darnold is a reminder to NFL teams to keep trying with talented QBs — and not to give up on them too early.

As for what to expect from him in the postseason, I'm not sure. But in this tier of unproven QBs, I like him best. Coach Kevin O'Connell has Darnold thinking and operating cleanly. And I don't see how the postseason will change that.

8. Baker Mayfield, Bucs

Last year, Mayfield was a fun story — a novelty that I approached with as much skepticism as I did with enthusiasm. But this year, Mayfield won me over.

It wasn't just his second season of prolific passing statistics, even after losing OC Dave Canales to the Panthers. It was Mayfield's determination to succeed even without his best playmakers. That's when the criticisms around the QB began to dissolve. A system QB propped up by his coaches? Maybe it's the other way around. A distributor propped up by his playmakers? There's more to it than that.

He's 2-2 in the postseason. How far can a plucky Mayfield get the Bucs?

9. Justin Herbert, Chargers

He's never won a playoff game. He has just one playoff appearance. But he's playing extremely well right now, even in a year when coach Jim Harbaugh reduced the emphasis of the passing game. Harbaugh wants to run. He wants to play good defense. That was what he established at the outset of taking over the Chargers. Herbert had 20 or fewer pass attempts in three of his first nine games under Harbaugh. But in seven of the last eight games, he has thrown 30 or more passes. And Herbert has responded well, with big games and big-time throws.

The question with Herbert is whether — in a QB duel against his AFC rivals in tiers one and two — he can really let loose. He's one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, but he doesn't always put his strengths on display, perhaps because he's so worried about making mistakes. But if Mahomes, Jackson or Allen are poised to put up 30 points, Herbert will have to play with an urgency that we've seen only rarely this year.

10. Jordan Love, Packers

It was fairly clear, at the beginning of the year, that Love was battling through physical limitations, likely stemming from his knee injury. I can say that with confidence because of how different he looks right now: 1) passing with power and precision, 2) making sound decisions, 3) cleaning up his turnover-worthy plays. (He hasn't had one in six weeks.)

The matchups against the Vikings (Week 17) and the Lions (Week 14) showed Love can hang with the best. But can he beat them? Both games were losses. Love may still be ascending, but I worry he's not there yet.

11. Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Putting him here is almost like a rookie tax. He's been sensational this season, with a propensity for finishing games. And that's an important quality for a quarterback heading into the postseason. He's a tick above his fellow rookie in Bo Nix, because of how explosive and difficult to defend Daniels is. But it's rare to see rookie QBs get far in the playoffs. I'm not sure Daniels was consistent enough — week to week — to have faith he can get his team through a single-elimination format.

12. Bo Nix, Broncos

Perhaps because Nix is an old-school pocket passer, he doesn't get much love. His arm is fine. His legs don't get him very far. Nix's best qualities are the ones we can't measure, and that's what makes him tough to get excited about in a league that features Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson — the most measurably transcendent (size, weight, speed, stats) QB's we've ever seen. And still, Nix has done a nice job finding his role in Denver's offense — and recovering from a bad two-game start to his pro career (0 passing TDs, 4 INTs). Sean Payton has done a really nice job drafting and developing a guy who fits.

TIER 5: I'M A LITTLE SCARED FOR THEM

13. Russell Wilson, Steelers

It's weird to put a Super Bowl winner in this category, but that's the truth.

Over the last four weeks of the regular season, the Steelers suffered embarrassing beatdowns from three Super Bowl contenders (the Chiefs, Ravens and Eagles). Wilson was a part of the problem, not the solution. He needs receiver George Pickens firing at an elite level. And that just hasn't happened since the wideout's hamstring injury. Russ' game is predicated on a moonball to Pickens. That opens up the rest of the offense. But when that's not there? The Steelers quickly become easy to stop. It's hard to imagine them getting far in the postseason after seeing them look like pretenders in the final quarter of the season.

14. C.J. Stroud, Texans

How can I put this nicely?

The Texans may be a playoff team, but Stroud is not a playoff quarterback.

Yes, I saw his rookie season when he threw for 4,108 yards, 23 passing touchdowns and five interceptions in 15 games. He was very good and very deserving of the Offensive Rookie of the Year. But he was also a totally different player than this season, when he had 3,727 yards for 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The stats often don't tell the whole story, but in this case, they do. Stroud has regressed.

He admitted recently that Week 17, when Baltimore rocked the Texans 31-2 on Christmas, was "probably one of the worst games of my whole career." I'd say it was the worst. And Stroud didn't gain much momentum in Week 18.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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