Ranking the NFL's top 10 receiving groups: Bengals lead the way
By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer
Editor's Note: NFL analyst Warren Sharp has joined FOX Sports for the 2022 NFL season. Throughout the year, he'll analyze the top games of the week and look ahead to the numbers that can give you a betting edge.
As we prepare for the start of the season, we're turning to the best resource available: Warren's 2022 Football Preview (available at Sharpfootballanalysis.com). This article breaks down the league's 10 best receiving groups. The rankings were put together by Warren and his Sharp Football colleagues, accounting for numbers, film and projections.
No. 1: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals field the best wide receiver trio in the league, which also showed up on paper. Cincinnati ranked first in yards per target (9.7 yards) and fifth in success rate per target (55%) to their wideouts. Ja'Marr Chase turned in a massive rookie season, putting up 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. Tee Higgins improved across the board in his second season, raising his yards per catch (14.7 yards), receptions (5.3) and yards (77.9) per game, catch rate (67.3%), and yards per target (9.9 yards) from his rookie season. Tyler Boyd rounds this trio out as a top slot option.
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Where improvement can be made is that the Bengals were 23rd in success rate targeting their tight ends (51%) and 22nd targeting their backs (44%).
Of 36 wide receivers with at least 60 receptions, Chase ranked second in yards after catch behind only Deebo Samuel. Speaking of which …
No. 2: San Francisco 49ers
The Niners ended 2021 first in the league in yards per target to tight ends (9.3 yards) and third in yards per target to their wide receivers (9.2 yards). The story of the season was Deebo Samuel, who broke out in a big way. Brandon Aiyuk played just 66% of the team snaps through six games, catching nine passes total over that span. Then, Aiyuk managed to get back in the coaches' good graces, playing 92% of the snaps over the final 11 games, with 21.6% of the team targets over that span.
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San Francisco also has one of the best all-around tight ends in the league under contract through the 2025 season in George Kittle. If we could guarantee a fully healthy season from Kittle, the unit may have ranked No. 1.
Keep this in mind when looking at Niners receivers' recent numbers: Out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks the past two years, Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 36th in downfield accuracy. The only quarterback who has been worse is Drew Lock.
No. 3 (tie): Los Angeles Rams
The Rams' passing game thrived in 2021, ranking second in the NFL in success rate targeting their wide receivers (61%) and tight ends (58%). They were anchored by an incredible season from Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp. After trading Robert Woods, and with Odell Beckham Jr. still unsigned recovering from an ACL injury in the Super Bowl, the Rams are missing 72 catches, 861 yards and nine touchdowns from their receiver production. Looking to replace that production, the team added Allen Robinson. Van Jefferson increased his output and production in his second season.
There is no reason to believe the Rams won't continue to be near the top of the league in explosive passes. The passing offense may not have hit its ceiling as head coach Sean McVay has remained relatively balanced on first down run-pass ratio.
No. 3 (tie): Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill is the NFL's most effective vertical threat and for certain the fastest, per Next Gen Stats. Hill ranked first in average top speed within one second of the snap on all four of the primary field-stretching routes (go, corner, post and crossing routes) among 64 qualified receivers in the NFL.
Hill and Jaylen Waddle have the potential to be an electric duo. Waddle set the record for receptions in a season (104) by a rookie last season.
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Despite Waddle's success, the Dolphins still ranked just 18th in success rate (51%) and 28th in yards per target (6.8 yards) when targeting their wideouts in 2021. Waddle collected 28 more targets than the next closest Dolphin while he was targeted on a team-high 23.8% of his routes as a rookie.
With a lack of explosive playmakers on the roster, Miami focused on retooling this unit. The team traded DeVante Parker, while adding speed in Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson. Wilson averaged 9.9 yards per target in 2021 (15th among wide receivers).
No. 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Last year's first-round pick, DeVonta Smith, had a strong rookie campaign, catching 64 of 104 targets for 916 yards (14.3 yards per catch) and five touchdowns. While Smith was a much-needed win for the front-office's wide receiver selection track record, he is still the only good thing this team got from their wideouts in 2021.
Smith accounted for 43.5% of the wide receiver targets (sixth at his position) while the Eagles' receivers ranked dead last in the NFL in targets per game (13.7) and 31st in yards per game (117.2). Philadelphia ended up ranking 29th in the league in success rate (46%) targeting their wide receivers while only Smith (53%) had a success rate over 50%. With that, the Eagles went out and added an alpha receiver in his prime in A.J. Brown.
Brown gives the offense a much-needed addition to the wide receiver room. The passing game was ninth-worst in passing success rate and fourth-worst when targeting wide receivers. Brown and Smith give Hurts two legitimate wide receiver options, and the passing game should take a step forward in 2022.
No. 6: Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders thrived throwing to their receiving corps in 2021, ranking third in the NFL in success rate (57%) and fourth in yards per target (9.0 yards) to wideouts. They did this with a group of Hunter Renfrow, Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards, DeSean Jackson, and seven games of Henry Ruggs.
The team lost Jones via free agency and traded Edwards while Jackson remains a free agent, but they added arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Davante Adams. Adams is coming off another stellar campaign that saw him catch 123 passes for 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns. Where the Raiders struggled in 2021 was when throwing to their tight ends, ranking 27th in success rate (49%) and 14th in yards per target (7.2 yards) to the position.
The offense has one of the league's top receiving trios in Adams, Renfrow and Darren Waller, which will help a quarterback with a below-average offensive line.
No. 7: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is front-loaded here with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Last year, that duo accounted for 49.8% of the team targets, 45.7% of the receptions, 56.1% of the receiving yardage and 66.7% of the receiving scores.
D'Wayne Eskridge, a 2021 second-round pick, played just 32% of the snaps. Noah Fant came over in the deal for Russell Wilson and is the team's best target behind Metcalf and Lockett. Fant averaged a career-high 4.3 receptions per game, but also had an early career-low depth of target of 6.4 yards, which played a role in dropping down to 9.9 yards per catch, which was also his lowest rate through three seasons.
Metcalf has a well-earned reputation as a deep threat, but it was actually Lockett who finished third in the league in receptions on throws 15 or more yards downfield last year.
No. 8: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Antonio Brown no longer in town and Chris Godwin returning from an injury, Tampa's pass-catchers fall seven spots in the rankings from a season ago. Rob Gronkowski has retired, which also weakens the depth. Gronkowski and Brown accounted for 31% of the team's receptions on targets 10 or more yards downfield.
The Buccaneers fielded one of the best wide receiving units in the league in 2021. On an efficiency level, Tampa Bay was sixth in success rate targeting their wideouts (55%) and ninth in yards per target (8.4 yards) targeting the position. Throwing to tight ends was less effective, although that was dragged down by non-Gronk targets. The team added the underappreciated Russell Gage to mitigate the losses.
No. 9: Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen provide Minnesota with one of the most reliable duos at wide receiver, but a lack of depth holds the unit back. There weren't any meaningful additions this offseason, so the team appears to be hoping K.J. Osborn can elevate his production in his third season.
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Minnesota has a true superstar in Jefferson. While the Vikings inevitably will have to hand him a massive contract, they have plenty of runway left in getting to that point. Jefferson followed up an 88-catch, 1,400-yard, seven-touchdown rookie campaign to post 108-1,616-10 last season.
Thielen averaged a career-low 10.8 yards per catch last season and is now 32 years old, but he restructured his deal to stay as the team's WR2 for another season. Osborn was productive in his second year in the league, catching 50 passes for 655 yards and seven touchdowns. Finally, we still do not know what Minnesota has in Irv Smith Jr. as he missed all of 2021 due to a meniscus injury.
No. 10: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers' passing attack was in the front half of the league in success rate targeting their wide receivers (55%, eighth), running backs (55%, third) and tight ends (54%, 15th). Keenan Allen was as steady as ever, reeling in 106 receptions for 1,138 yards and six scores. Austin Ekeler remained one of the more unique offensive weapons out of the backfield, catching 70 passes for 647 yards and eight scores.
Paired with those two, the team finally coaxed out a breakout for Mike Williams, who caught 76 passes for 1,146 yards and a team-high nine touchdowns. Williams received a contract extension this offseason. In an effort to improve at tight end the team brought in Gerald Everett, who is coming off a career-high 48-478-4 season.
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