National Football League

Will Lions rebound? Should Vikings keep Sam Darnold? What's Belichick's endgame?

Published Dec. 19, 2024 9:27 a.m. ET

Ben Arthur and 6 more

What a difference a week makes. The Lions went from NFL darling to NFL question mark just that quickly. Will a spate of injuries and an ill-timed onside kick call change the trajectory of their dream season?

FOX Sports' NFL reporters tackle that topic in this week's roundtable, along with whether the Bills can outscore opponents all the way to New Orleans, if Bill Belichick's college gambit can get him back to coaching on Sundays, and if Sam Darnold is the long-term answer for the Vikings.

Let's get started.

Until this week, the Lions were riding high with a franchise-record winning streak and the best scoring margin in the league. Now they're decimated by injuries and their coach is getting called out for overaggressive playcalling. Is this just a bump in the road or will Detroit's dream season turn into a nightmare?

It depends how you define "nightmare." If it means their Super Bowl chances have dropped significantly, then sure. But the Lions are still a very competitive team.

While the depletion of star talent bumps them down the NFC pecking order (the Eagles and Vikings look like more of a threat now), their explosive offense is still intact except for David Montgomery. And that's the side of the ball that has led Detroit this season, even with how much the defense has improved. Taking that into account, plus how well coached the Lions are in all three phases, this is still a dangerous team capable of a deep playoff run.

And as the adage goes, you never know what can happen in the postseason. The Eagles have their flaws, even as they boast a franchise-record 10-game winning streak, and the Vikings aren't playoff proven under Kevin O'Connell, who has one postseason berth on his résumé: a wild-card loss. — Ben Arthur

Will injuries derail the Lions’ Super Bowl hopes?

This was the first week I was actually mad at a decision Dan Campbell made. It was the decision to go for an onside kick in the beginning of the fourth quarter after pulling within a score of the Buffalo Bills. It was one of those "just because you can doesn't mean you should" situations. That being said, this is who Campbell and the Detroit Lions are. The team didn't bat an eye. No player questioned the decision after the fact. Campbell himself took responsibility. The Lions are unflappable in their belief.

For that reason, even with the injuries, there's little to no chance of a nightmare scenario for Detroit. They have a decently good chance of winning out, even with their myriad injuries. The Vikings in Week 18 are the biggest threat, but even if the Lions don't get the one seed, there still aren't more than three teams I'd put over them, and two of them are in the AFC. Offensively, they have Jared Goff playing some of the best ball of his career. They have Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, a healthy offensive line and a creative/resourceful playcaller in Ben Johnson. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and his staff have been performing miracles all season.

Whether their belief in themselves is warranted or delusional is immaterial. The point is, it's there. And as long as it's there, I'm not betting against Detroit. — Carmen Vitali

The Bills have scored 90 points in the past two weeks but have given up 86. Can Josh Allen Superman them to the Super Bowl?

I can see Allen playing at an MVP level deep into the postseason. Because of his size, speed and arm strength, Allen's game is weatherproof, and he should have no problem executing Buffalo's explosive offense in cold-weather environments. However, to win a championship, at some point the defense must show up. Buffalo has allowed 28.3 points a game to teams with winning records this season. The Bills likely will have to face the Super Bowl champs again in the playoffs, which means the defense must be at its best against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for Allen to perform his magic. — Eric D. Williams

There's just no way you can look at the kind of football Josh Allen is playing this season and have any doubts about what he and the Buffalo Bills can do this year. Prior to the season, a lot was made about how much talent left the building. Not enough was made about who they still had in it. As one Detroit defensive coach told me after Sunday's shootout at Ford Field, if you're the Bills, "you'd almost prefer the initial play to be covered and just let him do magic." Because of it, the Bills have the second-best scoring offense in the league.

The only issue is they're likely to run into the defending Super Bowl champs on their quest to reach the big game. But I'd be leery of that matchup no matter how many points Buffalo's defense was giving up. Until that almost inevitability, I trust Allen to do what it takes implicitly and the defense to do just enough to let him. — Carmen Vitali

Will a good season or two at North Carolina get Bill Belichick another chance in the NFL? Why or why not?

That's obviously what he wants, right? I mean, there's no other reason for the buyout in his contract to drop to a ridiculously low $1 million so soon (June 1, 2025). He's counting on the fact that a strong season at Carolina will show the NFL that he's still got it, that he's as energetic as ever, and that his coaching style and strategies still resonate with young players.

Those were the worries when the NFL snubbed him in the 2024 hiring cycle, that he had lost his fastball, that without a Tom Brady on his side he couldn't get through to today's players. He wants to show the league it was wrong. And it will 100 percent work. Not for everyone. A lot of owners are still going to look to younger candidates. They won't love the image of a dour, frumpy, uncooperative septuagenarian as the veritable face of their franchise. But winning and attention can be a powerful lure. And all it takes is one owner with an open job to fall in love and lure Belichick back where he has always belonged. If he wins at UNC, there will be at least one. — Ralph Vacchiano

It only takes one team and one owner to see the appeal of Bill Belichick. The NFL seems to feel Belichick’s methods are outdated, whether it’s his bedside manner with the players or it’s his experience serving as both coach and GM. The bedside manner might not change, but we’ll see in recruiting how well his message resonates with younger athletes. As for the enormity of his power, no one believed — when he was interviewing with the Falcons — that he was willing to end his GM career and focus on coaching. But that’s what he said his intentions were in Atlanta, if he got the job. He was going to be done as a GM. And perhaps that’s why Belichick immediately appointed a general manager at UNC: Michael Lombardi.

Many of Belichick’s big moves at UNC could be messages to the NFL: Look at how much I’m changing! And then, like a polarizing quarterback prospect with hopes of landing in the first round, Belichick simply has to convince one team that he’s worth the risk. — Henry McKenna

Why Bill Belichick's decision to join UNC as head coach makes sense

I know Belichick would like it to be the case, but he’s at UNC because the entire NFL passed on him. If you’re not on the league's radar with eight Super Bowl rings, why would that change because you won the Fenway Bowl? The ACC is deep enough with middling programs that Belichick should be able to win there — SMU showed how easily a newcomer can find success in the league. But his wisdom is still outsourced to a bunch of 19-year-olds he didn’t know last week, so it’s likely to be 9-4 success, outside the relevance of the 12-team playoff. Even if he got there and made a splash, the NFL saw how his Patriots teams finished and already politely declined. — Greg Auman

The NFL has already spoken, with owners taking a pass on bringing in the best coach in NFL history. Belichick's age (72), New England's struggles after moving on from Tom Brady and Belichick's desire for control are clearly hurdles he must overcome to become a head coach in the NFL again. How much would building a winning program at North Carolina change that perception of him? However, it does create some distance from his time at New England and allows Belichick to show a different side of himself as a college coach. And perhaps that's enough to change his perception around the league. All it takes is persuading one owner to give him another opportunity. A coach of Belichick's pedigree deserves that chance. — Eric D. Williams

Tom Brady on Bill Belichick becoming UNC coach: 'It blew me away'

With Sam Darnold playing well, some have suggested that the Vikings sign him long-term and trade first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, who has missed all season with a torn meniscus. With Daniel Jones also in the QB room, what should Minnesota do at this most important position going forward?

Barring a Super Bowl trip, the Vikings should be comfortable letting Sam Darnold walk. His likely lengthy list of potential suitors will inflate his value in free agency and Minnesota already has his potential replacement in-house in Daniel Jones, who can be re-signed in the offseason and begin 2025 as QB1 if J.J. McCarthy needs more time to get healthy.

Kevin O'Connell's track record with quarterbacks should give the Vikings plenty of confidence that they can sustain success amid a potential Darnold departure. O'Connell has rejuvenated Darnold's career. He got the most out of Kirk Cousins, who's now been benched with the Falcons. McCarthy on his rookie deal plus Jones (or another veteran quarterback) on a modest one- to two-year deal would give Minnesota the best chance to build a competitive roster for the long haul. — Ben Arthur

The Vikings believed in McCarthy enough to use a high first-round pick on him. Sam Darnold’s success should only remind them how great Kevin O’Connell is at quickly developing a quarterback. Unless Darnold leads them on a deep playoff run — conference championship or further — I think you let him sign a huge contract with another team in March and start anew with McCarthy. In doing that, they'll have about $35 million in extra money available to surround him with talent and give him the same chance to be great running that offense. — Greg Auman

It depends on Darnold's price tag and how well the Vikings perform in the postseason. It would be hard for the Vikings to move on if he leads them on a deep postseason run and a Super Bowl. In that case, the Vikings should pursue a long-term deal with Darnold to keep him in the fold. However, if the price tag is too high, the Vikings can build the offense around Jones until McCarthy is fully healthy. Having a proven head coach in Kevin O'Connell, who has shown he can find and develop quarterbacks, puts Minnesota in an advantageous situation when it comes to Darnold. And you also must consider that Darnold, who's made a lot of money in his pro career, may be willing to take less in order to stay in a desirable situation like Minnesota. — Eric D. Williams

The Giants haven't gone winless at home since 1974, when they played at the Yale Bowl while Giants Stadium was being built. They have one more shot at a home win, against the Colts in Week 17. If you rented a plane to fly a message over the Meadowlands, what would it be and why?

I'd like to fly a banner over the stadium for that home finale that asks the fans "YOU PAID MONEY FOR THIS? DON'T YOU HAVE ANYTHING BETTER TO DO?" But if I'm going to spend a few thousand dollars on sky advertising, I suppose I should direct the message toward ownership. So my message would be: "THIS ISN'T THE APPRENTICE! STOP FIRING PEOPLE!"

Seriously, in the past 10 years the Giants have ripped through six coaches and four GMs. Brian Daboll is actually the first Giants coach to get a third season since Tom Coughlin got 12. I know the last two years have been awful, but sometimes patience really is a virtue. And while I don't know if Daboll and GM Joe Schoen are the right people for their jobs, I know that three years is hardly enough time to find out. After the 2006 season, Coughlin's third year, everybody wanted him fired — fans, the media, most of his players, and probably almost everyone employed by the team, too. But Giants owner John Mara resisted the urge. He gave Coughlin one more year to turn things around. And 12 months later, Coughlin won a Super Bowl.

OK, the Super Bowl thing is probably not going to happen for the Giants next year regardless. Still, my longer, non-aerial message is that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. — Ralph Vacchiano

I'd borrow a page from the cult classic cinema masterpiece, "Draft Day," and fly a banner that simply read: "TRAVIS HUNTER NO MATTER WHAT." Because the draft process doesn't need to be any more difficult than that. It's going to be tempting for the Giants to do something drastic to find a quarterback of the future, but I would preach patience. For better or for worse, New York missed out on the 2024 QB sweepstakes by being a bit too good to land the likes of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. Don't make another mistake trying to chase the ghosts of years past. If there isn't a quarterback worth drafting No. 1 or No. 2 overall, simply draft the superstar, two-way playmaker who just won the Heisman Trophy — David Helman

Sorry, Dave, I’m going with the opposite: "QB NO MATTER WHAT." The Giants are going to finish in those top two picks. They don’t have a quarterback worth playing on the roster. Neither Shedeur Sanders nor Cam Ward are incredible in the same way that last year’s top three were, but Sanders and Ward have the potential to change the trajectory of a franchise, and that’s always a risk worth taking.

You can’t rebuild without a franchise QB. And I don’t think the trade or free agency markets are going to offer any. Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold would more likely get Daboll fired than save his job. The Giants need to take advantage of a top-two pick and use it to rebuild the organization in the fastest way possible. And while Travis Hunter is the better player, his impact won’t be anywhere near that of a quarterback. — Henry McKenna

The following writers contributed to this story: Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); David Helman (@davidhelman_); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).