National Football League

Vikings vs. Lions: Who ya got? Should Saquon play? Should Cowboys keep Mike McCarthy?

Updated Jan. 2, 2025 9:46 a.m. ET

Ben Arthur and 4 more

There's not a lot left to be decided in Week 18, but what does remain is quite consequential, highlighted by a delicious Sunday night battle in Detroit for the NFC North title and, more importantly, home-field advantage in the postseason.

FOX Sports' NFL reporters make their picks in that epic battle. They also tackle several other topics, including whether they would let Saquon Barkley go for the single-season rushing record, whether Joe Burrow belongs in the MVP race despite his team's mediocrity, who's the best rookie pass-catcher and which coach on the hot seat deserves a reprieve.

Let's get started.

In the first regular-season game in NFL history between two 13-plus win teams, it's Vikings vs. Lions on Sunday night for the NFC North title and home-field advantage. Who ya got and why?

I got the Vikings. The Lions' narrow win Monday night over the 49ers was a reminder of just how much of a liability Detroit's defense is with so many top contributors out. Minnesota has the personnel to take advantage, boasting an offense capable of keeping up with the Lions' offense, which has been able to mask some of the team's defensive holes by outscoring opponents. That won't be as easy against Minnesota, and Brian Flores' defense can present some issues for Detroit playcaller Ben Johnson. The Vikings are also the hottest team in the NFL, with a league-leading nine-game winning streak. I think Minnesota gets this one on the road. — Ben Arthur

Minnesota goes down here. The Lions already showed they are playing to win heading down the stretch, with Dan Campbell choosing to play his starters in a meaningless game on the road against the 49ers — in which Detroit earned a little bit of revenge for the team's NFC Championship Game loss last season. The Vikings enter this weekend's contest playing good football, but Detroit has the most explosive offense in the NFL, led by the league's most innovative playcaller in Johnson. Add Campbell's aggressive approach to game management and I see Detroit grabbing an early lead, playing from ahead and protecting the team's spotty defense. — Eric D. Williams

Sam Darnold or Jared Goff: Who will win the QB battle in must-have game?

The Eagles can't get the No. 1 seed, but Saquon Barkley is within 101 yards of Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record — and, oh yeah, Philly plays the Giants in Week 18. Barkley will reportedly sit, but if you were his coach, would you let him play?

He should absolutely sit. The record would be nice for Barkley to have, but it's not that important compared to everything else at stake for the Eagles. And it would be forever tarnished if he ended up getting it in a game in which he twisted his ankle or worse. The Eagles have a real shot at making their second Super Bowl in three years, and they need Barkley to get there. He's the guy who turned the Eagles back into a contender this year. Without him, they're unlikely to get past any of the powerhouse teams in the NFC North.

And like it or not, Barkley has been an injury-prone player throughout his career and plays a position where guys take a lot of hits and get hurt a lot. Risking him in a meaningless game that won't affect the Eagles' seeding would be crazy. — Ralph Vacchiano

While it would be interesting to see Dickerson a little nervous at the possibility of Barkley eclipsing his 40-year-old record, playing team sports is about winning titles. Barkley seems to understand that, choosing to let others get on the field at the end of games instead of piling up more stats during the season. And if Barkley were to play, get injured and be unavailable in the postseason, head coach Nick Sirianni would never hear the end of it from Philly fans. Dickerson gets his wish and keeps his record, and Barkley gets some much-needed rest in the Eagles' pursuit of a Lombardi trophy. — Eric D. Williams

The Bengals' odds of reaching the postseason are near single digits, and only twice has the MVP been given to a player on a non-playoff team: Johnny Unitas in 1967 and O.J. Simpson in 1973. So should Joe Burrow be penalized because Cincinnati's defense can't stop anyone?

I get the logic that the Bengals' bad defense and poor record should actually make a stronger case for all that Joe Burrow has done this season. If he throws three touchdowns on Saturday, he could set the NFL record for most TD passes while missing the playoffs. Burrow has 42, and Dan Marino had 44 while going 8-8 with the 1986 Dolphins. Drew Brees threw 43 on a 7-9 Saints team in 2012. But while giving a shout-out to Andre Dawson, who won the National League MVP with the last-place Cubs in 1987, such awards almost always have to go to players good enough to lift their teams to the relevance of at least making the playoffs. Marino took third in the 1986 MVP voting behind Lawrence Taylor and Eric Dickerson; Brees didn't get one vote out of 50 for the MVP in 2012. — Greg Auman

The dirty little secret about MVP awards is that they're not about the player who is most valuable. They're about the best player on a team that has overcome perceived adversity — real or not. And that player, preferably, shouldn't be the most recent winner and certainly not a back-to-back winner. And that player should definitely be on a playoff team. So while I'm beginning to think that Burrow is the most valuable player in the NFL — and I said as much in my QB Stock Market — I also understand that he's not a real MVP candidate unless he gets into the playoffs. Cincy has an 11% chance of making the postseason, per Next Gen Stats. So the MVP isn't happening, even if he deserves it. But … in the event the Bengals miraculously get into the postseason, it would make for a fascinatingly complicated vote between Burrow (who has the passing stats and the adversity), Josh Allen (who has the best film and the adversity) and Lamar Jackson (who has the best all-around stats and some adversity — but won the MVP award last year). — Henry McKenna

[McKenna: QB Stock Market Week 18: The MVP no one’s talking about]

Does Joe Burrow belong in the MVP race?

Brock Bowers, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey have each surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in 2024, a first for four rookies. Who's your long-term keeper and why?

I'm going to say Thomas. Not only has he been the most productive of the bunch — he leads the group in receiving yards (1,179), receiving touchdowns (10) and yards per reception (14.7) — but he's also shown the most game-breaking potential. His ability to take the top off of the defense with his speed is world class. He may also be in the best position for success moving forward if you talk about individual talent plus situation. Bowers and Nabers are on teams that will be in the quarterback hunt in the spring, while McConkey is pigeonholed as a slot receiver. Thomas not only can play every receiver spot, but he also has a long-term quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who's at his best throwing the deep balls Thomas is so good at catching. — Ben Arthur

Gimme Brock Bowers. I love those receivers, but I'm getting the sense that we're entering an era of mediocrity at tight end. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are aging out. Even George Kittle is going to age quickly, given how hard and dangerously he plays. So the future of the position is Sam LaPorta and … Trey McBride? David Njoku? I think they’re really good, but they're not special. There will never be a shortage of elite receivers around the NFL. But there appears to already be a shortage of elite tight ends. It's not that hard to argue that Bowers is already the best tight end in the NFL. So yeah, I'll take him for the next 10 to 15 years. He'll be a matchup nightmare for defenses built to stop elite receivers like the other guys on this list. — Henry McKenna

I'll take McConkey. A receiver's success is usually predicated on the person throwing him the football, and McConkey has the best quarterback of the four pass-catchers under discussion. Justin Herbert isn't going anywhere and should continually improve under the tutelage of head coach Jim Harbaugh. In his first season, McConkey is already Herbert's most-targeted receiver. The chemistry and rapport between the two will only get better. And the way McConkey plays and creates separation is based more on his quickness and elusiveness than straight-line speed, so the Georgia product should continue to play at this level for the next decade. — Eric D. Williams

Ahead of Black Monday, which embattled coach deserves to keep his job? Anyone?

Of all the coaches supposedly on the hot seat, none is more deserving of another year than Dallas' Mike McCarthy. The fact that he's even on the hot seat is a symbol of all that is wrong with the approach most sports owners (and fans) take these days. The Cowboys went 12-5 in each of the previous three seasons — that's 36-15 (.706) for those scoring at home. The idea that McCarthy could lose his job over one bad season caused mostly (but not entirely) by injuries is ridiculous.

Sure, the Cowboys might say that the Super Bowl is their goal and McCarthy's teams haven't done well in the playoffs. That would be more believable if they spent some of their cap space in the offseason to build a championship-ready team. But McCarthy did pretty well with what he had, which was not many of his key defensive players for most of the season and not his starting quarterback in the second half.

McCarthy is not perfect, but he's a Super Bowl-winning coach, his players play hard for him and they didn't quit. Firing him after one down year would be a panicky move Dallas would likely regret. — Ralph Vacchiano

[Vacchiano: NFL head coach hot seat rankings: 'Black Monday' decisions loom for these seven]

Colin Cowherd, Nick Wright on whether Dallas should bring back Mike McCarthy

I don't know that he's really in jeopardy of losing his job, but the Browns make enough bad decisions that I'll go with Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland will likely finish 3-14, a wild disappointment from being 11-6 last year, and the offense is the worst in the NFL. Stefanski has won NFL Coach of the Year twice in the past five years, and that should buy him enough leeway to come back in 2025. He'll have a better and healthier team this fall — potentially with the No. 1 overall pick. If Stefanski misses the playoffs again next season, he's in trouble, but he has earned the right to find out. — Greg Auman

I'm here to defend Jerod Mayo. It has been a disastrous year for the rookie coach in New England. It's not just that he is following in the wake of Bill Belichick, the greatest coach of all time. It's a series of in-game mistakes that show a pattern from which Mayo isn't learning. It's a series of miscommunications with the media, which has reflected dysfunction with his coaches or players. It's the simple statistics of having the worst team in the NFL.

But here's the bottom line with Mayo: I looked at this roster during the offseason and training camp and told everyone who would listen that the Patriots would win four games or fewer. A lot of people wouldn't listen, because the defense was so good last year. This team has two or three starting-caliber talents on either side of the football. That helps give perspective on why they haven't won. There's a clear temptation to jump ship on Mayo for Mike Vrabel. That's tantalizing, because Vrabel is roughly the ready-made version of Mayo. Vrabel is the type of coach that Mayo is supposed to develop into. The problem is that if Vrabel fails for all the same reasons as Mayo — and talent is really the issue, as I suspect — then the Patriots will have to fire three coaches over a three-and-a-half year span, even if they give Vrabel two years.

New England just scored among the worst franchises in an NFLPA poll going into 2024. It's not a good place for players. And then if you repel good coaches by showing impatience around development? Then it's a bad place for everyone. That's how the Patriots fall into Browns territory.

Stay the course with Mayo. Give him another year to develop. There will be other coaches out there down the line. — Henry McKenna

The following writers contributed to this story: Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).