National Football League

Saints-Falcons preview: Week 1 NFL guide, analysis, prediction

Updated Sep. 8, 2022 4:37 p.m. ET

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The first full Sunday of NFL action is sure to impress with a matchup between two classic rivals. Expect fireworks when the new-look Atlanta Falcons host the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

FOX Sports' staff of NFL writers has assembled a guide to every Week 1 contest. Be sure to check back throughout the coming season for weekly matchup analysis and game predictions.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET, FOX)

Overview: These are two teams with new looks that are trying to recapture their old offensive magic after failed offseason runs at Deshaun Watson. In New Orleans, the days of Sean Payton and Drew Brees are gone — officially now, after Payton "retired" and handed the team to Dennis Allen. The Saints' hopes hinge on the recoveries of QB Jameis Winston (knee) and WR Michael Thomas (ankle), and they'll ride dynamic RB Alvin Kamara — as long as he's not suspended after his offseason arrest. 

Meanwhile, the Falcons dumped long-time QB Matt Ryan to give Marcus Mariota a second shot at being an NFL starter. He lost his No. 1 receiver when Calvin Ridley was suspended for the season, and that sure won't help. But he does have dangerous weapons in TE Kyle Pitts and do-everything Cordarelle Patterson.

Related: NFL rookie awards predictions: Scouting and analyzing a deep group

Matchup to watch: Saints DE Cam Jordan vs. Falcons RT Kaleb McGary

McGary, a former first-round pick, is certainly up to the task of handling the NFL's top pass-rushers, but that's never easy when it comes to Jordan. He's the key to the Saints' defense up front and had 12.5 sacks last season — his fourth double-digit sack season in the past five years. 

The Saints have a tough secondary, too, and if they can get the pass rush going against Mariota, it could be a long day for him. Keeping him upright is the Falcons' key to the game.

Related: NFC South guide: Expectations and predictions for the Saints, Bucs, Panthers and Falcons

Key stat: The Saints went 5-2 in Winston's seven starts last season and 4-6 in the games he missed. Once the Saints failed to land Watson in the offseason, they got off the Quarterback Carousel, mostly because they still have optimism that they can win with Winston. They believe he was just getting warmed up when he got hurt.

Prediction: I think there is some misguided hope with both of these teams, particularly considering their choices at the quarterback position. Both Mariota and Winston are capable of big games, but it's unlikely they can sustain that kind of production over the season. 

For one game, though, Winston seems more likely to have a big day, mostly because he doesn't have to go against New Orleans' defense. The Saints' defense looks legitimately good again, coming off a top-10 year, and it will be too much for Mariota, who has barely played since his last start in 2019. Saints 17, Falcons 9 — Ralph Vacchiano

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National Football League

New Orleans Saints

Atlanta Falcons

NFL - New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons - 09/11/2022

Marcus Mariota

Jameis Winston

Cameron Jordan

Kaleb McGary

Ralph Vacchiano