This will be my last fantasy football installment. Some leagues go the full 17 weeks, but most are entering their championship week. Mine included.
After two abysmal offensive weeks, the Saints exploded for 48 points against on the top ranked defenses in the league. And boy, does that make this final prediction tough.
We’ll start it off with, in my opinion, the most difficult prediction we’ve had all year.
Drew Brees
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Drew Brees fantasy outlook: Start him.
Last week I said I never thought I’d be this close to recommending you sit Drew Brees. Well, this week I was even closer.
Yes, he exploded for four touchdowns last week. But he’s going up against a Buccaneers team that just held him scoreless.
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But I find it hard to believe the fact will repeat itself. And of course, a single score, low yardage performance isn’t something to start, especially considering Brees’ INTs against the Bucs. But I just don’t see a repeat performance in the works.
It’s not that anything is different with this Buccaneers defense. They’ve yet to release an injury report for this week, but no prominant names are likely to be out. So why do I think Brees will manage this week?
To be honest, I have no coherent reason. It’s a gut feeling, and a developed faith in Brees and Payton. I’ve never seen them come out unprepared against a division opponent twice in one year. Especially not twice in three weeks. Michael Thomas will be back, which no doubt will help the team. He’s a large part of what opened up the field for Brandin Cooks last week against Arizona. But it remains to be seen how much he’s presence will change the game dynamics. Either way, I expect an improved Saints offense. I mean, there isn’t much further down they could have gone.
But bottom line, if you have someone talented on your waiver wire, pick them up. I’m going to take a look at Phillip Rivers, but my league is small. He may not be available. I wouldn’t, for example, for a second consider Sam Bradford or, god forbid, Matt Moore. Maybe Marcus Mariota. But there aren’t too many promising matchups at the end of the wire.
Mark Ingram
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram (22) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mark Ingram fantasy outlook: Sit him.
Ingram made a bit of a scene last week when Tim Hightower garnered all the team’s goalline carries. I don’t know the situation, obviously, but it wasn’t a great look.
It may, in the end, push Payton to give him a few more snaps. He is, of course, the Saints bellcow. And as exciting as Fournette to New Orleans would be, it’s unlikely. Ingram will probably be the go-to guy in 2017.
But against a Buccaneers team that allowed only 2 yards per carry against Ingram two weeks ago, it’s hard to put him in my lineup.
And more importantly than that, he only managed 7 carries. Who knows how different this offense will be this time around—I am banking on a resurgance—but I’d be surprised if the gameplan changed so much that the Saints went with a run-heavy attack.
Still, Ingram is a possible flex option, if you need it. I doubt Hightower will get the goalline carries this week, so Ingram has a shot at scoring. But don’t expect a huge day from the typically efficient back.
Tim Hightower
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (right) greets New Orleans Saints running back Tim Hightower following the game at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Tim Hightower fantasy outlook: Sit him.
Yes, Hightower put up much better fantasy numbers last week. But I’m never going to recommend starting Hightower if I’ve recommended sitting Ingram.
Especially after Ingram’s outburst on the sideline, I expect he’ll get most of the goalline carries. Pair that with the fact that Hightower only managed 6 carries last Buccaneers game, and you see why I have little faith in a big day.
If your league is going all the way to Week 17, you’ll maybe want to use Hightower for his matchup with the Falcons. But pass on him this week.
Brandin Cooks
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks (10) celebrates after scoring a second quarter touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Brandin Cooks fantasy outlook: Sit him.
Last week, we saw the effect of Michael Thomas has on Brandin Cooks’s fantasy value. Cooks typically struggles against Patrick Peterson, but the first half of the Cardinals game saw Peterson focused more on Thomas. That allowed Cooks to get matchups with safeties: he’ll burn safeties in his sleep.
Cooks doesn’t perform well against elite CBs. Almost never. And the Buccaneers have a talented, deep group in their secondary. Cooks won’t see as favorable of a matchup, especially after the Buccaneers are reminded how dangerous he can be with space.
Like Ingram, Cooks can be considered a flex option. Low floor, high ceiling. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times: all he needs is one to be valuable. But this week he’s more likely than not to land on the floor. If you have anyone with any semblance of consistency, I’d go with them. If not, I guess you could do worse than Cooks.
Willie Snead
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Willie Snead (83) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Willie Snead fantasy outlook: Start him, if you need to.
Last Buccaneers game, Snead led the way with 85 receiving yards. And I expect he’ll lead the way again.
But he’s not the end-zone threat that the other two Saints receivers are. That’s ultimately his crippling trait. He may get a few chances on seam routes, but that’s about it.
If Cooks and Thomas can’t get separation this week, you can be sure Snead will. And Brees will hopefully find him. He’s a move-the-chains type receiver, so he just doesn’t have that high-upside you look for in a fantasy WR.
But if you’re going to start him, this is the week. I said the same thing last week, and Snead led the team in receptions. He should have had a touchdown to go with it. And this week, he’s even more promising. The question is: will the numbers be as high this week?
The offense struggled against the Bucs last time, and Brees will look Sneads way during those struggles. But in that role, he’s a third-down guy who’s not going to put up huge yardage. Unless he finds the endzone his value is too low.
But this is his most promising week. He’s a high-end flex option, in my opinion. Still, if you have better, maybe sit him.
Michael Thomas
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) catches a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals cornerback Brandon Williams (13) in the fourth quarter at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Michael Thomas fantasy outlook: Start him.
Here’s to hoping that Michael Thomas helps the Saints offense gets back on track against the Bucs.
I said the exact same thing last week, and look what happened. I believe Thomas can come alive again this week.
The Buccaneers face a tough decision coming into the matchup. Whatever they had gameplanned last time clearly worked. So how much do they change things up with Thomas returning to the lineup?
I expect they’ll play the wait-and-see card. Wait and see how much Thomas interrupts that gameplan. If he does at all.
As last week showed, the Saints see him as a goalline threat. Top that off with his all-around involvement in the passing offense, and it’s obvious that Thomas has value. Again, a solid WR2, in my books.
Coby Fleener
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints tight end Coby Fleener (82) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Coby Fleener fantasy outlook: Sit him.
The Saints are short on tight ends, so Fleener will see his share of the field. But does that mean fantasy value: unequivocally, no.
He managed two receptions for 10 yards this last week. And that’s up from one reception for 6 yards against the Bucs. He’s just not a threat in this passing offense. Who knows why not. Hopefully next year, he’ll come alive.
With Brees struggling to put up numbers, there’s no reason to believe Fleener should have any serious opportunities. Yes, he’s the only reliable TE on the roster. But is he that reliable?
No.
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) pursues Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31) at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Saints Defense
Fresh off a pro-bowl snud, you can bet Cam Jordan will play this one with a chip on his shoulder.
But beyond that, there’s actually reason for optimism. The Saints defense did an excellent job against the Buccaneers last week, surely enough to win the game had the offense not put up a dud.
The team showed that they are more than capable of handling Mike Evans, even without Delvin Breaux. And Breaux, for all we know, may suit up this week.
If you have the Saints defense, chances are you rode them all the way to the championship. So why switch things up now? There’s reason to believe the unit will do well.
So I’m sticking to my guns.
