National Football League

Schrager Cheat Sheet: Patrick Mahomes, Kyle Pitts, others to watch in Week 1

Updated Sep. 10, 2021 6:31 p.m. ET

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By Peter Schrager
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Welcome to the return of the Schrager Cheat Sheet. I did this weekly column for nearly a decade on FoxSports.com, it went away, I did some other things in the time that passed, and now … it’s back. 

Each week, I'll take a look at five things you need to know heading into the NFL weekend. Jot this stuff down. Drop some of these nuggets at the water cooler or whatever the "work from home" equivalent to a water cooler might be these days. 

It's going to be informative, and it's going to be fun, and I might even throw in a little bit of pop-culture talk along the way. 

Let's get to it.

Peter Schrager's Cheat Sheet: Patrick Mahomes, Kyle Pitts, and others

The 2021 NFL season is officially here, and Peter Schrager is sharing his Cheat Sheet for some players and teams to watch in Week 1.

1. Chiefs over Browns in marquee Week 1 matchup

To start things off, I'm going with the Cleveland-Kansas City game. Everyone seems to be taking the Browns, and that's great. Just know this: Patrick Mahomes does not lose in September. That's not me being flippant — he DOES NOT LOSE IN SEPTEMBER. 

The guy is 10-0 all time in games in September, and the numbers are incredible. Mahomes has thrown 32 touchdown passes in September. Do you know how many interceptions he has thrown in the month? Zero.

That's 10 wins and zero losses, 32 touchdown passes and no interceptions. 

If you think you're going to get a situation like the Super Bowl, in which Mahomes was running around like a chicken with his head cut off, that's not the deal. 

The Chiefs completely revamped their offensive line, and they're really excited about it. Not only did they spend huge money in free agency on former Patriot Joe Thuney, who's going to be playing offensive guard, but they also went and drafted Creed Humphrey in the third round out of Oklahoma. He's been a stud all summer at training camp and will be starting at center. 

Then they got Trey Smith out of Tennessee — one of the top high school football recruits in the country a few years back — after he slipped to the sixth round in the NFL draft due to some health concerns (that have since been addressed). He's starting, too, and if you take the word of the Chiefs’ brass, he has been absolutely dominant all summer. 

The Chiefs have a new offensive line in front of Mahomes, he's healthy, and they'll be at home at Arrowhead Stadium in a September game. Put all of this together, and there is a lot to like. 

Go ahead and take the Browns if you want. I'm going with K.C.  

2. Big things ahead for Kyle Pitts 

I spoke to a lot of coaches and GMs heading into the draft, and a lot of them are willing to share their thoughts off the record, but Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay told me something on the record that I thought was pretty telling.

When I asked McVay whom he thought the division rival San Francisco 49ers would take at No. 3 — Mac Jones or Trey Lance or Justin Fields? — he said, "I don't know who they're taking, but I wouldn't sleep on Kyle Pitts at No. 3."

Kyle Pitts? You trade all those picks to move up to take a tight end? McVay insisted that would not be a surprise.

Well, the Niners ended up taking Lance with the third overall pick. But the mere fact that McVay, who follows the league as closely as he does, would think that his former colleague, Kyle Shanahan, might take a tight end third overall tells me that Pitts must be a pretty special player. 

And he is. First-year head coach Arthur Smith got Pitts with the fourth overall pick in the draft, and I expect huge things out of the Falcons' rookie.

No tight end had ever been drafted as high as fourth overall, and I don't think any tight end has ever had the expectations this kid does. You don't draft a player that high without intending to use him, and I expect big things right out of the gate, as the Falcons will make Pitts a focal point of their offense. 

The Falcons are very excited about their offense, but what they love most is the trio of Pitts, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. All three of those guys are going to have big years, and Pitts might break some records.

Did you know that the all-time receiving yards record for a rookie tight end is held by Mike Ditka? Iron Mike went for 1,076 yards for the Chicago Bears way back in 1961. 

Here are the top five receiving seasons for rookie tight ends:

* 1. Mike Ditka (1961 Chicago Bears): 1,076 yards
* 2. Jeremy Shockey (2002 New York Giants): 894 yards
* 3. Keith Jackson (1988 Philadelphia Eagles): 869 yards
* 4. Charle Young (1973 Philadelphia Eagles): 854 yards
* 5. John Mackey (1963 Baltimore Colts): 726 yards

I think Pitts blows those numbers out of the water this season, and he'll start with a huge outing in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

It’s worth noting that as Titans offensive coordinator last season, Smith ran 12 personnel (2 TEs, 2 WRs, 1 RB) on 33% of offensive plays. Neither Jonnu Smith nor Anthony Firkser — the tight ends in Tennessee last season — are close to the talent Pitts is. He’s wearing No. 8, which is a bit odd for a tight end. But he’s not your usual tight end. 

3. A tough test for Chicago's new defensive coordinator

Whenever a head-coaching job opens up, I'm asked about some of the hot young coordinator names coming up. 

One of the names that kept coming up this offseason is Sean Desai, the 38-year-old, first-year defensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears.

Desai's story is incredible. He has been with the Bears since Marc Trestman was the head coach in 2013-14 and has worked his way up the org chart to now being the defensive coordinator. He was with John Fox, stayed around for Matt Nagy, and after Chuck Pagano stepped away last year, the team gave the crown of defensive coordinator to Desai. Great story, right?

Sure. But the feel-good story might not be told Sunday night. Talk about a test in his first week: Here comes the Rams' offense.

The Rams are going to go five-wide, and McVay is going to have quarterback Matt Stafford throwing the ball all over the yard. And as good as some of the players on that Bears defense are, their defensive backs leave a lot to be desired, at least on paper. 

This is a mismatch of epic proportions if you ask me. L.A. has Stafford, McVay and all those wide receivers: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson. And guess what? Rookie Tutu Atwell is going to make an impact, too.

On Chicago's side of the ball, the starting corners are second-year player Jaylon Johnson, who's fairly unproven, and another young man named Kindle Vildor, whose game, quite frankly, I'm not entirely familiar with. I’m not alone. Those are the two guys who are supposed to stop this explosive passing attack?

I think Desai is going to be a great, young coach in this league.

In Week 1, though, the odds are stacked against him. 

4. Looking for Moore

I got to visit a bunch of teams at training camps this summer, and one that I spent extensive time with was the Arizona Cardinals. 

The Cardinals are really excited about what they have in the building and what they're going to unveil in Week 1. They added A.J. Green in free agency, and they're excited about first-round draft pick Zaven Collins. They also have a lot of famous names and guys looking to show they’ve got a little game left; J.J. Watt and James Conner and Matt Prater are new additions to this team. 

But the guy I'd be watching to make a splash is No. 4, a second-round pick named Rondale Moore. The wide receiver out of Purdue is special, and coach Kliff Kingsbury is excited to use Moore a lot because this is one of those players we call "position-less."

What's that mean? Well, he might line up in the slot. He might line up outside. He might even line up at running back. 

Moore did it all at Purdue, but the way they're going to use him in Arizona is almost like a Swiss Army knife. We saw glimpses of it in the Cardinals' preseason game against the Cowboys, when Moore showed an ability to take short passes and turn them into big gains.

I know Kingsbury plans to use Moore a lot of ways right out of the gates. Be ready for it when the Cards take on the Titans on Sunday.

5. Picks of the Year

Lastly, here are my picks of the year.

Best show of the summer: "White Lotus." Armond is an incredible character played by the great Murray Bartlett. Hats off to you! You deserved a better fate, Armond. 

Best comedy podcast: "Are You Garbage?" I suggest you subscribe to it to hear your favorite comedians talking about their childhoods. 

Biggest sports star of the summer: Emma Raducanu. I'm watching the US Open, and this 18-year-old qualifier from South London comes over here and reaches the women's final. Unbelievable!

OK, now to what I know you really want from me, my NFL picks. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa, 49ers. He’s back, and he will be dominant yet again. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mac Jones, Patriots. Pitts will be awesome; Mac is taking New England back to the playoffs.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Browns. He is a speedster at linebacker who will be all over the field in big games and will only get better as the season goes on. 

MVP: Russell Wilson. No one's picking the Seahawks this year. I'm going to go scorched earth. I really think it's going to be a big season for Seattle when nobody's really talking about them.

AFC Champs: Kansas City Chiefs and my guy Mahomes. 

NFC Champs: I'm going with the Rams and Stafford. 

Super Bowl champs: The champions will celebrate right in their own backyard in the fine city of Los Angeles. I have the Rams beating the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVI, winning an absolute shootout.

There you have it, the first cheat sheet of the 2021 NFL season. Fun? See you next week. 

Peter Schrager is an NFL writer for FOX Sports and a host of "Good Morning Football" on NFL Network.

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in this topic

National Football League

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

Cleveland Browns

Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts

San Francisco 49ers

Trey Lance

Chicago Bears

Los Angeles Rams

Robert Woods

Cooper Kupp

Van Jefferson

Tutu Atwell

DeSean Jackson

Kindle Vildor

Jaylon Johnson

Arizona Cardinals

Zaven Collins

J.J. Watt

A.J. Green

Rondale Moore

Dallas Cowboys

Russell Wilson

Seattle Seahawks

Matthew Stafford

Peter Schrager