Schrager's Week 15 Cheat Sheet: If Cowboys lose to Eagles, their season is probably over
Like it or not, there's going to be an odd team out in the NFC playoff picture this year. And right now, fan bases from Arizona, Seattle, Detroit, Philadelphia and Dallas are having a little harder time focusing on the holidays, knowing theirs might be spoiled with stress and frustration in Week 17.
Of course, everyone is susceptible to a breakdown in the season's final three weeks, most recently displayed by the Ravens -- the defending champions a season ago -- losing their final two regular-season games when a win would have gotten them into the playoffs.
The ultimate stress will be when a possible 6-10 or 5-10-1 NFC South division winner goes to the playoffs with a home game in the Wild Card round and one of the aforementioned six teams is left home with an 11-5 record.
Dallas is currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Spending way too much time fiddling with the NFL's playoff simulator, it's clear there's a very good chance Dallas will win two of its next three games and still will see its playoff dreams squashed due to tiebreakers. We're used to Dallas' Week 17 game being for all the marbles. Well, that could be the case on Sunday in Philadelphia, a rare instance for any Week 15 contest.
Where would an 11-5 Cowboys team rank among the best regular-season teams to miss the playoffs? There have been 18 10-6 teams to miss the playoffs since 1978, but only two at 11-5: the Matt Cassel-led New England Patriots (2008) and the 1985 Denver Broncos.
The '85 Broncos, coached by Dan Reeves and led by a young John Elway, were 8-3 when they went into the Los Angeles Coliseum for a big AFC West battle with the Los Angeles Raiders in Week 12. The Raiders won in overtime.
Just two weeks later, the Raiders traveled to Denver, and the game went into overtime again and Denver lost 17-14. And that was it. Los Angeles -- led by 1985 league MVP Marcus Allen -- won the division with a 12-4 record, while the 11-5 Broncos were done by Christmas.
Well, sure enough, here we are, and Dallas is in the same situation. If the Cowboys lose on Sunday to the Eagles, it could all be over. If they win, we could be looking at the first Cowboys playoff squad since 2009. Dallas needs to win on the road – where it is 6-0 this season -- to avoid such infamy.
What's it going to be?
WEEK 15 NFL TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Calvin Johnson has 43 100-yard receiving games. Only one NFL player had more in his first eight seasons. Who?
NFL THROWBACK JERSEY OF THE WEEK
In honor of Melvin Gordon's declaration for early entry into the NFL Draft, here's a throwback jersey of fellow Badgers running back great Ron Dayne from his New York Giants days.
And now, the picks.
Week 14 record: 10-6
Arizona at St. Louis: Speaking with Rams defensive coordinator Gregg Williams last week before the 24-0 blowout of the Redskins, he dished a great story. Williams said his son, a fifth-year linebacker at Virginia Tech, gave him a heads-up on one prospect, in particular. Not a former Virginia Tech teammate, but rather an ACC opponent of his. Some kid named Aaron Donald. Sure enough, Williams was thrilled to see Donald, a dominant defensive tackle at Pitt, available with the 13th overall pick in May. When Donald was selected and first walked into the building the next day, Williams proclaimed to the rest of his defensive coaches, "The most important thing with [Donald], is to not do anything to him at all. I want him just as he is." And what has Donald done? Well, with seven sacks and 36 tackles from the defensive tackle position, he's been just about near perfect. Though Khalil Mack, C.J. Mosley, and Kyle Fuller have gotten far more pub, Donald should be the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. The Rams have outscored opponents 76-0 over the past two weeks. But keep an eye on No. 99 -- he's all over the field. The Rams are early frontrunners for next year's surprise team.
The pick: Rams 20, Cardinals 7
Pittsburgh at Atlanta: I'll be at the Georgia Dome for this one and want to see how the Falcons respond on a short week after a defensive debacle in Green Bay. Yes, Monday night's game got interesting in the final moments. But that thrashing had to be demoralizing for the Falcons defense. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is a complete crapshoot from week to week. They have too many veterans to not take full advantage of an opportunity to make the playoffs after two years away.
The pick: Steelers 28, Falcons 23
Washington at New York Giants: Back in August, I circled this game as one that could be a big matchup in deciding the NFC playoff picture. That was a miscalculation. Not as bad as the miscalculation I made in ordering the salmon at an airport sports bar last week after Sunday's games. Not good. Not good at all.
The pick: Giants 20, Redskins 16
Miami at New England: The Patriots haven't lost a game at home all season, and the closest any team has come to beating them in Foxboro was the Jets' hard-fought two-point loss in the rain back in Week 7. The Dolphins had a good thing going, but I don't see it happening on Sunday. The Patriots have too much to lose, are playing too well and are still bothered by losing to Miami on opening day. This could get ugly early.
The pick: New England 34, Miami 14
Oakland at Kansas City: By beating the 49ers last weekend, the Raiders went from having the top pick in the draft to the fifth. There's no Andrew Luck in this year's class, but there is an awfully talented wide receiver in Alabama's Amari Cooper and a standout defensive tackle in USC's Leonard Williams. Either would be huge for Oakland. I know, Raiders fans will never say no to a win -- especially over the 49ers -- but that one had major implications come draft day. They could "gain" some ground on Sunday, though, as I just don't see them beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead, regardless of how drastically worse Kansas City has looked the past four games compared to the four prior.
The pick: Chiefs 31, Raiders 20
Houston at Indianapolis: Want an example of complete domination? The Colts have won 21 of 25 all-time matchups with Houston and are 12-0 at home in the series. J.J. Watt's name is in the MVP discussion, and the combination of another big performance and a Texans upset on Sunday could get AP voters thinking about him more. I just don't see Andrew Luck surrendering a good chance to put the division away in his building.
The pick: Colts 34, Texans 21
Jacksonville at Baltimore: A name that could give Ravens fans nightmares on Sunday is Storm Johnson. Who? The rookie out of UCF has been patiently waiting his turn in the offense, and with Denard Robinson out for the year, that time has come. Johnson was Blake Bortles' running back in college and briefly spent time under offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch at the University of Miami. Expect a big day out of Johnson and a far more difficult game than the Ravens bargained for.
The pick: Ravens 24, Jaguars 14
Green Bay at Buffalo: It's been a great year in Buffalo, but final nail could be in the coffin come Sunday. Aaron Rodgers isn't just having the best season of his NFL career, he could be having the best NFL season by a quarterback -- ever. And yes, that includes Peyton Manning's 2013. The numbers don't lie. He has 35 TDs and just three interceptions. Buffalo could have some fight in it, but I just don't see anyone slowing down No. 12.
The pick: Packers 31, Bills 16
Tampa Bay at Carolina: Derek Anderson is the guy for Carolina on Sunday. Against another team, that would be a big negative. But Anderson already has beaten Tampa Bay once, in a Week 1 road game. How bad is the NFC South? Well, you know. But Carolina can repeat as division champion if it wins its final three games and New Orleans loses once. This is still very much possible. The Panthers don't win pretty and certainly aren't a marketer's dream at this point. But they're fighters. With Cam Newton out, expect others to rally and find a way on Sunday.
The pick: Panthers 22, Buccaneers 17
Cincinnati at Cleveland: I'm all in on Johnny Football -- for this week, at least. There's no real film, no real book and no real way to prepare for a guy who could have a completely different playbook than the one the Bengals saw against Brian Hoyer or from Manziel in the summer. Expect waggles, rollouts and a lot of razzle dazzle. I'm not sure whether that's enough to win two games, but I think it could be just crazy enough to get away with one. The Dawg Pound is going to be going wild. The emotion alone could lift this team.
The pick: Browns 24, Bengals 20
New York Jets at Tennessee: It's the Marcus Mariota Bowl! In Nashville! The Titans have lost their last seven games by an average of 15 points. It's their longest losing skid since the 1994 Houston Oilers dropped 11 in a row. They went 2 for 13 on third downs last week. And with all that said, they should have no problem with the Jets on Sunday.
The pick: Titans 24, Jets 9
Denver at San Diego: Though most fans bring up the Thursday night loss in Denver a season ago, Peyton Manning has pretty much owned the Chargers since he signed with Denver. Manning is 4-1 against San Diego in the regular season (not to mention a Divisional Round win last year, too) since joining the Broncos and has 15 TD passes and just three interceptions in those games. Mike McCoy, Manning's offensive coordinator in 2012 and now the Chargers head coach, may have some tricks up his sleeve, but I don't see it being enough.
The pick: Broncos 34, Chargers 23
Minnesota at Detroit: Teddy Bridgewater had the worst game of his career when these two teams squared off earlier this season in Minnesota, but he's a much different quarterback two months later. Watching Bridgewater the last few weeks, I'm most impressed with his ability to go through his progressions and make the right reads. He didn't do that in the first matchup, often focusing on one receiver and getting sacked behind an injured and inferior offensive line. Everyone is chalking this up as a Lions win, then saying they could be in trouble in their two road games at Chicago and Green Bay in Weeks 16 and 17. I think they struggle here, winning a much more difficult contest than most imagine.
The pick: Lions 20, Vikings 17 (OT)
San Francisco at Seattle: If you told me back in August that one of these teams would be favored by double digits come Week 15, I would have said you're nuts. But here we are, and Seattle is every bit the big favorite I couldn't have once imagined. The seldom-discussed reason for Seattle's late season reemergence is a healthy linebacker group. After missing five games, starter Bobby Wagner has played in the last three, and the difference of the defense has been eye-popping. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 107.5 passing yards over the last four games. 107.5! That includes mauling the 49ers on Thanksgiving. Seattle is playing just about as well as it played at any point last season. San Francisco, well, is not.
The pick: Seahawks 27, 49ers 16
Dallas at Philadelphia: It wasn't pretty for the Cowboys when these teams played two weeks ago. DeMarco Murray, who has torched the entire league, ran for a season-low 73 yards and the Philadelphia defensive line was in the Dallas backfied the entire afternoon. And though Murray had 179 yards on the ground last week, he's never broken the century mark versus the Eagles. As I mentioned at the top, this is truly a make-or-break game, and 11-5 might not be enough for Dallas to get in if it’s swept by Philadelphia. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and I think the Cowboys get it together and find a way on Sunday night.
The pick: Cowboys 24, Eagles 23
New Orleans at Chicago: If you can figure out the 2014 New Orleans Saints, let me know, because I've gotten their last seven games wrong in the Cheat Sheet. The Bears appear to be done and dusted for the season, but the Saints looked so bad against the Panthers last week that I can't take them in good conscience. Everyone blames Jay Cutler for the Bears' woes, but he's not giving up a league-worst 29 points per game each week. He's not giving up a 28th-ranked 389 yards of offense each week. Cutler, without Brandon Marshall, links up with Alshon Jeffery and Marquess Wilson a few times each in the end zone and outdoes Drew Brees in a wild shootout.
The pick: Bears 40, Saints 35
READER EMAIL OF THE WEEK
Peter,
Loved seeing Dikembe Mutombo seated next to Kate and William at Nets-Cavs tonight. You're a fancy New Yorker. What do you think that conversation could have possibly been about?
Andy,
Providence, RI
Andy,
I have to assume that was an intense basketball conversation. Memory lane type stuff. I'm told by my sources inside Buckingham Palace (Note: I have no sources inside Buckingham Palace) that Kate and William were huge fans of the early-90s Denver Nuggets. Big Bryant Stith/Robert Pack fans. Prince William loved LaPhonso Ellis. They were definitely talking to Mutombo about head coach Dan Issel's creativity and his dynamic offensive sets during that series versus the Sonics.
WEEK 15 NFL TRIVIA QUESTION ANSWER OF THE WEEK
Randy Moss (45) had more 100-yard receiving games than Calvin Johnson in his first eight NFL seasons.
