National Football League

Should Colts aggressively pursue Lamar Jackson? Can they afford not to?

Updated Mar. 22, 2023 4:31 p.m. ET

The Colts have every reason to look into Lamar Jackson.

They have the quarterback need, an owner in Jim Irsay not afraid to make bold decisions and the right amount of desperation for a franchise signal-caller post-Andrew Luck — due to a years-long carousel at the position — to at least have a conversation with the Ravens superstar. It costs nothing to do so.

The Colts have reportedly not ruled out pursuing Jackson. Baltimore placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on the former NFL MVP on March 7 (which would pay Jackson a fully guaranteed $32.416 million in 2023), allowing him to negotiate with other teams. But if another club were to sign him to an offer sheet, the Ravens can match or receive two first-round picks in exchange.

So should the Colts aggressively pursue him? What could hold them back?

Here's a breakdown:

Why Colts should pursue Jackson

Lack of draft leverage

Two quarterbacks figure to be selected ahead of the Colts in the 2023 draft — at No. 1 by the Panthers, who traded a massive haul to the Bears for the top pick, and No. 2 by the Texans. As many as three signal-callers could go before Indianapolis is on the clock, if a quarterback-needy team jumps to No. 3 (currently held by the Cardinals) to leapfrog Indianapolis. That would leave the Colts with the fourth pick of the quarterbacks.

Of course, we don't know how the Colts or the other quarterback-needy teams have ranked the top signal-callers in this draft (Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis). It's possible that Indianapolis could still land its top option by staying at No. 4. But what if it doesn't? The odds are in favor of the latter.

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The Colts are in a dangerous situation, lacking control at a time when landing a long-term quarterback is the top priority.

Jackson is a proven franchise QB

Having a top-four pick does not guarantee you'll get a franchise quarterback. First-round signal-callers miss more than hit.

Look at what the Jets have been through, taking Sam Darnold (2018) and Zach Wilson (2021) in the top three of the draft three years apart.

In the past five drafts, 18 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Of those 18, just six or seven are true franchise quarterbacks: Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa. The Giants just committed big money to Daniel Jones, and maybe he'll earn that extension. But eight of 18 is still under a 50% hit rate.

Jackson is a proven commodity, a game-changing quarterback in his prime (age 26) who has already won an MVP. Quarterbacks of his caliber are typically never available.

Jackson is a surer bet to big success than whichever quarterback the Colts could select at No. 4 or higher if they were to trade up.

A poor track record of pursuing veteran QBs

Since Andrew Luck's shocking retirement before the 2019 season, the Colts have given Jacoby Brissett a two-year, $30 million contract, Phillip Rivers a one-year, $25 million contract, and traded for Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan.

Of course, none of those moves ultimately worked out — it's why drafting a first-round rookie quarterback has made the most sense — but clearly Indianapolis has a track record of aggressively pursuing veteran signal-callers. And Jackson is far better than each one the team has had.

Potential for a dynamic offense

With Jackson under center, the possibilities for the Colts offense feel endless.

New coach Shane Steichen, formerly the Eagles' offensive coordinator, arrives in Indianapolis with a strong reputation of developing quarterbacks of all sizes and attributes (Phillip Rivers, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts). An option offense with a diverse run game Steichen could build around Jackson, football's most dynamic dual-threat quarterback, and star running back Jonathan Taylor would be explosive. Keep in mind the former MVP has never played with a tailback of Taylor's caliber. The only 1,000-yard rusher he's ever played with was a 30-year-old Mark Ingram in 2019.

The strong threat of a run game could also open up the Colts' passing game, which was abysmal last season.

Lamar Jackson's interested teams include Colts, Patriots

The Lamar Jackson sweepstakes are heating up with new teams, including the Colts, reportedly preparing to throw their hat in the ring.

Draft capital required isn't steep

Two first-round picks are a steal for a bona fide franchise quarterback.

The Browns gave up three first-round picks, a third-rounder and two fourth-rounders for Deshaun Watson last March. The Broncos dealt two ones, two twos, a fifth and three players (including two starters) for Russell Wilson last spring.

Why they shouldn't pursue Jackson?

Cost

Jackson has reportedly sought a fully guaranteed contract, in the ballpark of what Watson received from the Browns. Even if Jackson doesn't get that, it's reasonable to expect he'll get more than the $161 million fully guaranteed that Wilson received from Denver, slotting the former league MVP in second behind Watson.

In fact, last week, Jackson tweeted that he turned down $133 million fully guaranteed over three years from the Ravens (though it's unclear if there were non-guaranteed years on top).

It's a steep price regardless, and it's unclear if Colts owner Jim Irsay has the liquid cash to pay for Jackson. Most NFL owners, like other billionaires, have most of their wealth tied in assets. The NFL's collective bargaining agreement requires teams to place guaranteed money in an escrow account at the time of signing.

Not close to contention

This would be a different story if the Colts were just a quarterback away. But after a tumultuous 4-12-1 season, Indianapolis has concerns across the offensive line, at wide receiver and cornerback on top of quarterback. It has a new head coach and will have a new offensive direction. Maybe the Colts surprise people in 2023, but no one is expecting them to be a legitimate contender.

So one can argue that shelling out a $200 million-plus contract and two first-round picks for Jackson is unwise. A quarterback of his pedigree would instantly make Indianapolis a competitive team, but the resources required to get him could significantly hamper the ability to improve a roster that needs help everywhere.

Top landing spots for Lamar Jackson

Nick Wright gives his top five landing spots for Jackson, including the Colts, Falcons, Patriots, Lions and 49ers.

Injury history

Including last season's wild-card loss to the Bengals, Jackson has missed 10 games the past two seasons due to injury — six straight to end 2022 with a sprained PCL in his left knee and four straight to end 2021 with an ankle injury.

Jackson can do things with his legs most quarterbacks can't, but his dynamic rushing ability can leave him more susceptible to injuries. That's a possible concern for interested teams, especially considering you'd already be committing a mega-deal to him and giving up multiple first-round picks.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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