National Football League

Should Seattle Seahawks trade Russell Wilson as part of rebuild?

Updated Dec. 13, 2021 5:17 p.m. ET

By Randy Mueller
Special to FOX Sports

Editor's Note: As the NFL season winds down, former GM Randy Mueller will offer a "rebuilding blueprint" for teams that need to turn things around. Mueller's series for FOX Sports starts with one of his former clubs, the Seattle Seahawks.

Nearly every passenger was asleep, and the airplane cabin was dark, but I switched on my overhead light and pulled down my tray table.

There was work to do.

My New Orleans Saints had just lost in the second round of the NFL playoffs in a deafening environment at Minnesota's Metrodome, and on that January 2001 night, we were all hurting as we flew back to Louisiana knowing that our promising season was over.

My ears were still ringing as I reflected on my first year as general manager in New Orleans, a season that resulted in an NFC West championship and the first playoff victory in franchise history.

"What the heck are you working on?" one of the business partners to Saints owner Tom Benson asked as he walked down the aisle.

I was already putting pen to paper to outline an offseason plan and develop an immediate to-do list for improving the roster.

Although I was hiding the pain from the sudden end to our season, there was no time to sulk or play the what-if game.

It was time to retool.

Saints linebacker Mark Fields sits on the bench after New Orleans' 34-16 loss to Minnesota in the 2001 NFC divisional playoffs in Minneapolis. (Photo credit JEFF HAYNES/AFP via Getty Images)

When that moment arrives for NFL decision-makers, there's nothing more invigorating.

The retooling or rebuilding of an NFL franchise is, to me, the most exciting, most exhilarating and thus most satisfying task a team builder can take on.

I still love this time of year, even though I am not running an NFL team. Your mindset in December is either preparing your team for a playoff run or getting a clear focus on what you need to do in the offseason to position your team for a turnaround.

As NFL teams embark on the last quarter of the 2021 NFL season, the decision-makers for teams at the bottom of the standings have already started to look ahead.

Whether it’s the Seahawks, Giants, Bears, Raiders or any other team with a cloudy future, they should be looking for daylight at the end of the tunnel already. As a lifelong NFL team-builder, it brings a smile to my face.

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In 2000, Benson empowered me to come to New Orleans and rebuild his once proud franchise (under Jim Mora Sr.) that had fallen on tough times (under Mike Ditka).

The rebuild was the most fun and best time of my professional life.

I had just been through the same process in Seattle. That rebuild culminated in an AFC West title and trip to the playoffs in Mike Holmgren’s first season with the Seahawks, so I knew what I was getting into when taking over the Saints.

No matter how deep the hole is, the climb out is very possible. In fact, history shows it can be done quickly with the right leadership and decision-making.

The league is set up for struggling teams to turn their fortunes quickly with multiple ways of acquiring talent. The salary-cap structure beyond 2021 also allows for some spending, if done the right way.

In 1999, the Saints were one of the worst teams in football. In 2000, we went to the postseason and stunned the defending Super Bowl-champion Rams.

I was just 39 years old at the time, but I had 17 years of experience already in the bank from my time in Seattle. So really, I’m here to say that the age of the architect does not matter — you can be 39 or 69. It’s about the people you surround yourself with, the instincts for identifying talent and the acumen for making a deal to acquire that talent and fit the puzzle pieces together.

A rebuild takes having a broad outline and a plan, a very detailed ability to evaluate and value (two distinctly different things) and, of course, the acumen to acquire the targeted talent.

In 2021, you also need some salary-cap space, a couple of willing trade partners and the willingness to pull the trigger on such deals.

It's also crucial to have a precise criterion (defined by your coaches and their schemes) to evaluate and fit players into. It’s not always about getting the best player, but it is about getting the best fits "for us" (see the Patriots for the past 20 years).

Seahawks GM John Schneider has one of the most interesting jobs in the league right now — if he is allowed to do it. What I mean by that is, he is in a tough spot based on the structure of the organization.

Technically, Schneider answers to head coach Pete Carroll. This gets complicated when you consider that Carroll is now 70, and the decisions this team has made the past three or four years are why the Seahawks are struggling at 5-8.

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider are signed to long-term deals. Will they be around long enough to return Seattle to prominence? (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

In my evaluation, 2021 is not just a one-off bad season after a decade of success in Seattle. The Seahawks need a retooling at minimum.

Seattle has been held together with Band-Aids the past couple of years. The philosophy of "we are one player away" must be shelved, and a more thorough direction has to be forged. Draft picks have been squandered or jettisoned in trades, and cap space has been used like it grows on trees.

The organization needs to redefine its scouting criteria and exactly what it wants (player-wise) for the long-term future of what’s best for the team. The decision-making process that once served them well is no longer working.

The rebuild must start with somebody up top in ownership asking the tough questions.

Schneider has already been valued as "the future" by signing a contract in January that extends through the 2027 draft — a deal that runs beyond that of Carroll, who is signed through 2025. Schneider needs to retool his own staff, but he deserves a chance to fix what’s wrong.

Carroll can still be the coach — if all parties agree on the future direction — but he needs to take a lesser role in team building. The collaboration will still be there.

The elephant in the room is, obviously, what to do with Russell Wilson.

The eight-time Pro Bowl quarterback is probably Seattle's one asset, on the field, that would net a decent return if he can find his mojo from early 2020. The team needs to replenish the core of its talent base by acquiring and hitting on multiple draft choices. On the other hand, it would be nice to have a viable option at QB to surround with better talent.

At 33, Wilson is a gamble either way.

Let’s just say it’s complicated. Which Russ are you getting? Russ in early 2020? Or Russ in 2021, when he has continued to struggle much like his second half of last season? The next month will go a long way in giving the franchise answers.

Wilson has said the right things publicly, as he has for most of his career. There are some who question his motives behind the scenes, but winning has solved any questions of agendas and priorities.

His comments last week about wanting to stay in Seattle and play 20 years with the team should be taken with a grain of salt. Seahawks fans should be concerned only with the next couple of seasons.

My guess is if the Seahawks commit to him being part of their solution going forward, another contract demand will be in play shortly thereafter — which comes with a $40 million annual commitment. That's not easy for some to swallow. Don’t forget, this team needs way more than stability at quarterback.

Let’s say the Seahawks decide to move Wilson. The No. 1 value in return has to be a viable option at QB. Seattle can’t take a big step back at the game's key position, regardless of the draft-pick compensation he receives.

The "what do we do for a QB?" part of the riddle must be solved in the deal. A trade package that includes an option at QB, along with a couple of first-round picks and a starter or two, would not be out of the question for the Seahawks to ask for in return.

That’s why these next few weeks are so important in determining where Wilson is as a player. He has played well in back-to-back wins over San Francisco and Houston after struggling the first three games following his return from a finger injury.

Trading Wilson at the right time in the 2022 league year would free up $11 million in cap space. However, those savings dissipate quickly because he has a $5 million roster bonus that comes due on the fifth day of the new league year, and that would eat up almost half of those savings.

That trade window would be tight. Plus, Wilson, as he made public last offseason, has the "no-trade" clause that would have to be waived. Needless to say, because of these restrictions, Wilson will have a say in his future.

My guess is he would waive his no-trade clause only if he were getting a new, more lucrative and longer-term deal somewhere else.

Here are a couple specific and realistic examples of what a possible trade would look like:

1. The Giants give quarterback Daniel Jones (which requires a deep study in where he is in his development and why, so don’t give a knee-jerk response before this is done), wide receiver Darius Slayton (who would be a legit option in a three-WR package in Seattle), a high first-round pick in 2022, another first-rounder in 2023 and maybe the oft-injured but also flashy running back Saquon Barkley (who has one year left on his rookie contract) to seal the deal.

2. The Eagles counter with quarterback Gardner Minshew (at $1 million for 2022), a young and ascending talent in wide receiver Quez Watkins, starting guard Landon Dickerson (a tone-setting leader-to-be for years to come) and first- and third-round picks in 2022, plus a first-rounder in 2023.

3. Another option is for Seattle to package another player with Wilson in order to increase the return.

Keep in mind that these kinds of trades come with a lifetime supply of Maalox. They should and do "hurt" in your stomach and have to be a win-win for all parties. Heck, I can feel it in my gut just writing about a Wilson deal.

This is not fantasy football. I have experienced trading players for first-round picks in the past. It’s how ulcers are formed, and it's why you don’t see the trigger pulled on many deals of this magnitude.

Let's put aside a Wilson deal for a minute and look at a Seahawks rebuild that includes the QB as part of the fix.

The Seahawks cannot move forward without a discussion on coaching and scheme.

I believe Seattle has had a disconnect with fitting players into its schemes the past few years. That also might help explain the club's frequent misses in the draft.

The Seahawks have been trying to collect talented pieces, instead of building a team, and there is a significant difference.

That’s why they need to redefine their scouting and team-building process by setting a criterion to identify talent based on value within a specific coaching style and schemes. To fix the problems, someone first needs to do an internal audit with a fresh set of eyes and questions.

Job descriptions must be defined at each position on the field, and this will help keep everyone on the same page internally.

I don’t think Seattle needs to change coaches to keep Wilson. It’s not an either-or situation when it comes to Carroll and Wilson.

However, I do think Wilson will need to be sold on who is driving the bus and the path back to contention. I’ve always thought the locker room needs to believe in the team's decision-makers, so this is not out of the ordinary. The players have to buy in.

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The best assets the Seahawks have going forward, though, are "off the field." The team has plenty of cash, a supportive owner, great facilities, an established non-football front office and plenty of cap space.

With approximately $56 million of projected cap space, a well-defined plan to identify some ascending talent should be part of Seattle's game plan in free agency. That doesn’t mean "win the news conference" or "sign the big-name guy." It means unearthing some talented players at specific positions who can grow in the Seahawks' system and fit their schemes better than their current teams are using them.

There are many details to be sorted out; these are just a few. This evaluation has already started in many NFL buildings as we wind down the regular season. It should all be part of the process.

This is not a quick fix in Seattle’s case, and no GM acts alone. The challenge also goes out to chairs above (ownership) and below, the salary-cap expert, the pro and college scouts who have been on the road all season and your entire coaching staff.

John Schneider and other NFL decision-makers should be licking their chops at the possibilities of fixing what’s holding their teams back.

Tray tables are being pulled down, and overhead lights are shining on their futures as we speak.

Randy Mueller is the former general manager for the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. He spent more than 30 years working in NFL front offices as a talent evaluator. Follow him on Twitter or at muellerfootball.com.