National Football League

Should WRs get MVP votes; Hackett mea culpa: Schrager's Cheat Sheet

Updated Dec. 28, 2022 5:40 p.m. ET

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Peter Schrager

NFL Insider & Sideline Reporter

I've made hundreds — maybe thousands — of preseason predictions in my 15 years as a football analyst online, in print and on TV. There may not be any that will follow me — haunt me? — more than my August prediction that Nathaniel Hackett would be this year's NFL Coach of the Year. Hackett — after a disastrous 15 weeks and an embarrassing Christmas day blowout loss on both CBS and Nickelodeon — was canned by the Broncos on Monday morning. 

One and done is bad, but not even making it through one season is truly rare air. There are now 30 coaches since 1970 who were fired after one season, but only three were fired before the season ended. So, obviously Hackett's eating it this week. He's become a punch line. And trust me, if you want to live in a Twitter or Instagram world of freezing cold takes, I'm taking quite a bit on the chin this week for my prediction, too. 

But I'm not sure this one is entirely on Hackett, and I'm confident he's a darn good offensive play caller. 

He wasn't hired by mistake. Hackett has long been a respected offensive coach in the league, having been the guy in Blake Bortles' ear during Jacksonville's run to the AFC Championship in 2018 and Aaron Rodgers' OC during both of his MVP seasons the last two years. Rodgers' praise of Hackett went a long way, as you would imagine, but it wasn't just the gunslinger up in Green Bay. He's been praised for his offensive ingenuity, his connection with players and for his authenticity for twenty years as a coach both at the NFL and college level. I don't think Hackett just stunk overnight. Yes, game management decisions and perhaps the undisciplined nature of a team that is 32nd of 32 teams in penalty yards are damning. But I can't look at the 2022 Denver Broncos and say the head coach is the sole individual to blame. 

Who should Broncos hire to replace Nathaniel Hackett?

The Denver Broncos fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett after a 4-11 record in his first season. While Sean Payton is rumored to return to coaching and potentially join Denver, one can argue that the job is not as high in-demand as fans think due to Russell Wilson. Colin Cowherd shares who he believes Denver should and can realistically hire.

I go back to what GM George Paton said last January: "You can't keep recycling coaches and expect to sustain a winning culture. It's hard. We're going to get it right — and we're going to get it right with this search. I can guarantee you that." 

That quote, coming from a GM with a very strong resume before this offseason, might be a more freezing cold take than my pick of Hackett as Coach of the Year. 

So, Hackett takes the job. They trade everything and then some for Russell Wilson, a new ownership group takes over, Wilson gets a massive new guaranteed contract, and just about every player on offense gets injured for either a significant portion of time or the entire season. This whole season's been a mess, and yet, I don't think Hackett suddenly forgot how to coach or call plays. 

Is he an NFL head coach? Well, after 15 weeks, I'd feel confident in saying he wasn't a good one this year. Under some different circumstances? Maybe it's a different story. He'll eat this one and be the joke for a few weeks. Maybe a trivia answer someday down the line. But I don't think he's done coaching and wouldn't be shocked if he's on a staff that has quite a bit of success in the near future. Twenty years of coaching success isn't suddenly erased after one forgettable four-month stretch. 

The real question, of course, which still hasn't been answered or confirmed on the record — was whether Hackett was hired because Broncos management hoped it would lure Aaron Rodgers to Denver. Rodgers re-signed with the Packers, the Broncos traded for Wilson and less than 12 months later, Hackett's out of a job. 

A six-way playoff tiebreaker?

The Raiders are benching longtime starting QB Derek Carr in favor of Jarrett Stidham, who has never started an NFL game. Clearly, not a lot has gone right in Las Vegas this season, and Carr has not built on his strong 2021 campaign. "Good Morning Football" researcher Rich Goldberg laid out a fascinating scenario this week and I pieced it together: The Raiders, despite losing in heartbreaking fashion Saturday night, still have a 1.25% chance of making the playoffs. Here's how:

1. Raiders win last two games (vs. 49ers, vs. Chiefs)
2. Dolphins lose last two games (at Patriots, vs. Jets)
3. Jets lose Week 17 at Seattle, then win week 18 at Dolphins
4. Patriots win Week 17 vs. Dolphins, then lose Week 18 at Bills
5. Steelers lose at least one game (at Ravens, vs. Browns)
6. Titans win Week 17 vs. Cowboys, then lose Week 18 at Jaguars

If all of that happens, there would be a six-way tie in the AFC for the final playoff spot (provided the Chargers don't lose all three games).

• Raiders 8-9 (win last two)
• Dolphins 8-9 (lose last two)
• Patriots 8-9 (beat MIA, lose BUF)
• Jets 8-9 (lose SEA, beat MIA)
• Steelers 8-9 (lose one game)
• Titans 8-9 (beat DAL, lose JAX)

Now come the tiebreakers:

First step: Applying tiebreakers so only one team from each division is left

The Patriots would win the tiebreaker over the Dolphins and Jets based on three-way head-to-head.

That leaves us with the Patriots, Steelers, Titans and Raiders. 

Next step: Apply the conference-record tiebreaker

• Raiders: 6-6 conference record
• Patriots: 6-6 conference record
• Titans: 5-7 conference record
• Steelers 4-8 conference record (we're presuming they lose one game, finishing 8-9)

The Titans and Steelers would drop out of the four-way tie based on conference record.

It would come down to the Patriots and the Raiders. And because, of course it is, the Jakobi Meyers play would be the tiebreaker in a head-to-head scenario. That play would catapult the Raiders over the Patriots to the playoffs and the final wild-card spot, making for an absolutely unreal story.

No pressure, Jarrett!

The Steelers are alive, too

Pittsburgh enters Week 17 as the No. 11 seed in the AFC, but are winners of two straight games and fresh off an awesome last-second win over Las Vegas. So they're 11th out of 16 teams in the conference, but still alive. Barely. What would they need? Let's lay it out. 

Pittsburgh needs to win both of its remaining games, obviously. That includes Sunday night in Baltimore and Week 18 at home against Cleveland. But they also need the Patriots to beat the Dolphins on Sunday and the Seahawks to beat the Jets. If my calculations are right, that's all they need in Week 17. Then, in Week 18, the Steelers would need the Bills to beat the Patriots and the Jets to beat the Dolphins. If all that were to happen, the Steelers would make the playoffs.

Moreover, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers would finish the season 9-8, ensuring another year in which Tomlin finished a campaign without a losing record. If you weren't aware already (it's often mentioned on game broadcasts) Tomlin's had at least a .500 record in every season he's coached since he took over in 2007. 

What makes this improbable run most exciting, of course, would be that it included big contributions from rookies Kenny Pickett, George Pickens, Jaylen Warren and second-year runner Najee Harris. That's a young, promising core — and it pretty much confirms that the Steelers won't have to go into full-rebuild mode anytime soon. When you look around the league at all the total rebuilds and teams that are just hammering away to compete again, it makes Pittsburgh's resurgence even more impressive. 

Cobie Durant's coming-out party

Lost in the Broncos' futility and Patrick from Spongebob giving his commentary was a breakout game from Rams fourth-round cornerback Cobie Durant. Yes, his name is Cobie Durant. Durant, a fourth round pick out of South Carolina State, had two interceptions, two pass breakups and a pick-six. 

According to Next Gen Stats, Durant made the second-fastest play in Week 16, clocking in at 21.5 mph on his 85-yard pick-six. Durant got hurt earlier in the season and was buried on the bench. The Rams inserted him back into the lineup, and he was one of the stars of the game. Players like Durant, Michael Hoecht and Larrell Murchison — three standouts from Sunday — were not expected to get much playing time before the season began. All three are putting good film out there, showing their value as NFL players. 

Justin Jefferson's MVP case

There's a swell of support for Justin Jefferson's MVP case right now, but I just don't see it happening, no matter what he does in the final two weeks. I know, that sounds curmudgeonly. But it seems like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen will take the hardware home and Jefferson will win the Offensive Player of the Year award running away. (Full disclosure: I'm not one of the 50 voters on the award.) The word "valuable" is what keeps another position from winning, and I'm not sure when that shift happened. Adrian Peterson won the MVP less than a decade ago from the running back spot. 

Whether we like it or not, the MVP has become a QB award. If Cooper Kupp didn't win a year ago with his triple-crown numbers at wide receiver, I'm not sure there's anything Jefferson can do in the final two weeks to win it. 

Should Vikings' Justin Jefferson be included in the MVP conversation?

Nick Wright and Greg Jennings discuss whether Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson should be included in the NFL MVP conversation.

The case for Jefferson is strong, of course. And if you go beyond the catches and potentially the first 2,000-yard season from a receiver, his numbers come in the most important points of games, too. Jefferson has totaled 168 receiving yards on eight Vikings game-winning drives. The Vikings have won 11 one-score games this year and have yet to lose a single one. Jefferson is the dude when it matters most in those games. 

But Kupp was, too. I don't have a problem with Jefferson winning the award. I welcome it. I just don't see it. 

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Peter Schrager is an NFL writer for FOX Sports and a host of "Good Morning Football" on NFL Network. You can follow him on Twitter at @PSchrags.

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Peter Schrager