Spread Offense vs Pro Style Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft
Be careful when it comes to the Spread Offense quarterback!
It’s already hard enough on NFL personnel people to evaluate a college quarterback. And the Spread Offense catching fire at the collegiate level has made it even harder. You can’t just look at a quarterback prospect’s physical attributes and stats to tell the story.
Spread Offense quarterbacks don’t have to do what pro style quarterbacks do. They don’t call plays in the huddle, audible or throw the ball down the field into tight windows. They don’t go through many progressions or throw with anticipation either.
Many forget that the Spread Offense is just the K-Gun, the Run and Shoot Offense in the shotgun. The running game just has a quarterback option to it. But as passers, the quarterbacks have inflated stats just like Andre Ware and David Klingler back in ’90s.
For those that don’t know, Ware and Klingler threw for a ton of yards in college and busted in the NFL. And as far as the running part of it goes, quarterbacks get broke off (injured) when they run too much. So NFL teams should be reluctant to draft a Spread quarterback.
Turn the page to see some case studies between top quarterback prospects.
Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2005: Alex Smith vs Aaron Rodgers
The San Francisco 49ers missed out on Bay Area hero Aaron Rodgers staying home to play for the 49ers. Instead of picking the California star, they took Alex Smith from Utah at No. 1 overall. You can say all the 20-20 hindsight you want but the 49ers messed up.
Rodgers is a pro style quarterback with a huge arm, can run and does everything pro quarterbacks do. Smith could run but that’s the only thing he could do as well has Rodgers. He wasn’t so good throwing the ball down the field and he knew it so he didn’t take chances.
But the 49ers were misled by Smith’s 32 TDs and four INTs in his last year in college to Rodgers’ 24 and eight. Rodgers fell all the way to No. 24 overall, where the Green Bay Packers took him. After sitting behind Brett Favre for three years, Rodgers became the starter.
In 2010, Rodger led the Packers to a Super Bowl win and now, he’s the best in the NFL. Meanwhile, Smith took a very long time to develop as they didn’t run the Spread in the NFL then. A lot of teams changed the way they scout quarterbacks after that.
Sep 11, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) looks to pass in the first half against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
2012: Andrew Luck vs Robert Griffin III
I can’t fault the Washington Redskins here because they picked No. 2, after the Indianapolis Colts. But it’s as plain as day that the Colts made out much better than the Redskins did. Andrew Luck played in a pro style offense at Stanford and he easily translated to the NFL.
He read defenses, made checks at the line of scrimmage and threw it down the field into tight windows. He also showed some wheels, even though he chose not to depend on them too much. So the Colts picked him No. 1 overall, and he became an instant star.
Robert Griffin III actually got off to a better start, winning NFL Rookie of the Year over Luck in 2012. The Spread Offense was relatively new to the NFL but the league has since adapted. So RGIII’s play slumped as he tried to adapt to a pro style offense.
He also never mastered the art of sliding, or going out of bounds to avoid injury. So the Redskins didn’t pick up the option on his rookie contract, allowing him to walk. And after catching on with the Cleveland Browns this year, he’s already out with a fractured shoulder.
Sep 11, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) throws the ball against the Green Bay Packers during the second half at EverBank Field. Green Bay Packers defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-23. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
2014: Blake Bortles vs Johnny Manziel
Pro style quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had a bad Pro Day while Johnny Manziel had a good one. So Manziel entered the discussion for the first quarterback selected in the 2014 NFL Draft. All eyes were on Manziel and Blake Bortles for that honor.
And it was Bortles, the pro style quarterback, that went No. 3 overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars needed this pick to work at the time and boy did it. His rookie year was shaky but last year, he threw for 4,428 yards and 35 TDs.
After they went 6-10 last year, I’m not sure this is the year for the Jaguars. But that team will be in the playoffs soon with Bortles leading the way. The Jaguars are happy as all get out that they didn’t set their franchise back by taking Manziel.
Manziel would go on to set the Cleveland Browns back, leading to the firing former GM Ray Farmer. Not only could Manziel not get the pro game down but he couldn’t get life down. And now, Manziel is already out of the NFL with no comeback in sight.
The Browns could have had Bridgewater or Carr, the best QB of the class.
Sep 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) rolls out of the pocket in the third quarter of their game against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome. The Buccaneers won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
2015: Marcus Mariota vs Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota threw for an amazing 4,454 yards, 42 TDs and only four INTs in 2014 at Oregon. He also beat Jameis Winston in the Rose Bowl in 2015 to raise more eye brows. But you can put Mariota’s throwing numbers right up there with Ware and Klingler.
All the slants and bubble screens producing yards after the catch inflated his stats. From the very beginning, I knew that Mariota would take longer to get there than Winston and wrote about it. Winston, taken No. 1, already made checks at the line and went through progressions.
He also threw it down the field into tight windows with anticipation in college. I know Mariota is a smart kid so he would make checks at the line and call his plays soon enough. But he struggles with accuracy down the field, his progressions and staring down targets.
Mariota beat Winston again as an NFL rookie but Winston threw for over 4,000 yards and 22 TDs. And in the season opener, the threw four TDs while Mariota cost his team a win with two turnovers. Mariota still struggles with accuracy down the field and staring down targets.
Sep 11, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) looks to pass against the Cleveland Browns during the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. The Philadelphia Eagles won 29-10. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
2016: Jared Goff vs Carson Wentz
Jared Goff came out of one of those Spread systems to throw for 4,714 yards 43 TDs and 13 INTs. He’s another guy with inflated numbers but I thought he might be different than the others. Goff started out in a pro style offense at California until a coaching change came.
But the No. 1 overall pick didn’t seamlessly transition to NFL football and was inactive for Week 1. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz, from little North Dakota and a pro style offense, balled out. This didn’t go the way either of these quarterback’s coaches planned.
Wentz, who used to panick in the pocket with pressure, was supposed to redshirt this year. Goff is the one that was supposed to start right away, creating a buzz in LA. But Wentz threw for 278 yards and two TDs in a win over the Cleveland Browns.
The Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles made big trades to move up to pick these two. And right now, it looks like first quarterback picked is losing out. If Goff isn’t better than Casey Keenum right now, it wasn’t worth the trade.
Sep 4, 2016; Austin, TX, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer (14) throws during the game against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
2017: DeShaun Watson vs DeShone Kizer
Coming into this year, DeShaun Watson of Clemson was everyone’s quarterback prospect for 2017. Brad Kaaya was a distant second while the scouting world slept on Deshone Kizer of Notre Dame. But after two games, Kizer has started to get more consideration.
Watson is playing himself out of the top quarterback spot throwing almost as many INTs as TDs so far. Like Mariota in the NFL, he struggles with his accuracy down the field and staring down targets. He also tends to run when his first read isn’t there.
At 6’2″, 210, Watson is unlikely to run his way into the playoffs when he gets to the NFL. When a running quarterback is that thin, it’s darn-near a forgone conclusion that he’ll get broke off. Meanwhile, Kizer has the most of what you want from a prospect.
He has a big arm with accuracy and at 6’5″, 230 pounds, he has great size. He runs a hybrid between the Spread and a pro style offense so he’ll have no trouble transitioning. At the end of this season, it may be between Kizer and Kaaya, who’s also from a pro style offense.
Sep 8, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) throws a pass under pressure from Denver Broncos linebacker Shaquil Barrett (48) in the second half at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Panthers 21-20. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Bottom Line
Cam Newton is the first Spread quarterback to use the Spread and have sustained success in the NFL. When he came out, the NFL didn’t know quite what to do with him. He’s 6’6″, 260 pounds so he stayed healthy, missing two games in his five completed years in the NFL.
And while the NFL figured out how to deal with the Spread, Newton figured the NFL game out. So now, he’s about as dangerous a dual-threat quarterback as there is in league. You’re not a real dual-threat quarterback unless you can function as a pocket passer too.
Newton is a rare bird as Kaepernick and RGIII seem to have flamed out after having brief success. They both had some issues trying to adapt to the NFL game. But a good portion of their struggles have to be attributed to injuries.
Smith and Tannehill are starting to do pretty well for themselves as pocket passers but it took a while. Every year, when there is a top pro style prospect and a top Spread prospect, pro style wins. The first round is about immediate impact.
So if your team needs a quarterback in the draft, pro style is the safer bet.
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