National Football League

Super Bowl 2022 odds: Everything you need to know

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 2:49 p.m. ET

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By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

If you’re looking for an underlying theme to Super Bowl LVI between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday, it’s experience against youth.

Men against boys. Vets against kids. Old dogs against puppies.

SUPER BOWL LVI

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Point spread: Rams -4.5 (Rams favored to win by more than 4.5 points, otherwise Bengals cover)
Moneyline: Rams -200 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15 total); Bengals +170 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $27 total)
Total scoring over/under: 49 points scored by both teams combined

The Rams have collectively been around the block more than these Baby Bengals, and it’s about more than just the starting quarterbacks. Sure, soon-to-be 35-year-old Matthew Stafford has been chopping wood much longer than freshly-turned 25-year-old Joe Burrow has, but the gap stretches across the board.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Los Angeles is in its prime with an average age of 27.6, but Cincinnati is the youngest Super Bowl team since 1980 with a median age of 25.8. The Rams also have combined to earn 20 first-team All-Pro nods over the years, while the Bengals don’t have any.

Factors like these undoubtedly led respected bettors to fire on Los Angeles last week at the betting window, moving the spread up a whole point.

"We opened Rams -3.5, and it got bumped out rather quickly," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me.

"I know a lot of people that were saying the Titans were 4-point favorites over the Bengals, so the Rams should be more. But I don’t buy into that. If anything, the Bengals proved that the Titans line was wrong. The current Bengals-Rams line is probably right on."

I spoke to a respected oddsmaker late last week who said his "true number" on the game was Rams -5.5 on a neutral field. That number doesn’t account for any perceived edge L.A. has playing at home at SoFi Stadium, which continues to be a moving target.

"It comes down to the age-old question of how big home-field advantage is," JBB said. "There are a couple different elements in the Super Bowl. We only have one precedent with last year’s game in Tampa Bay (Bucs 31, Chiefs 9). And over a third of the tickets are corporate, so it’s not like it’s going to be a big, pro-Rams crowd.

"We don’t think travel is a huge advantage, either. There’s a two-week gap between the games, and the Bengals arrive in California so early that travel doesn’t really matter all that much.

"We can’t see home-field advantage being more than a point or a point and a half, tops, in this situation. And that’s obviously worth about half of what the conventional home field used to be."

I truly enjoy my conversations with Blangsted-Barnor and not just because of his tremendous British accent. He is willing to answer any question I bring to the table with the most honest two cents he can scrape together.

For example: how the hell are the Bengals in the Super Bowl?

"It’s so crazy," JBB cracked. "They were 20-to-1 to win their division before the season. We had them at 100-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Other shops were even higher at 150 or 200-to-1.

"The answer is simple — Joe Burrow. That’s how. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase just balled out all season. The thing that really intrigues me about Burrow is that if he didn’t throw [14 interceptions], we’re talking about him having one of the best statistical seasons of all time. He’s got the second-best passer rating in the league, his completion percentage is north of 70%, and he leads the NFL in yards per attempt.

"When you have a quarterback like Burrow, you’re never out of a game."

You would think that a Bengals Super Bowl victory would bankrupt the house because futures opened 100-to-1 or higher, but that’s not the case.

There were hardly any takers on that big ol’ Bengal price, especially when you consider that most bettors were buying futures stock in the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens. And don’t forget that Burrow suffered a brutal knee injury last year.

Not many people bet their hard-earned cash on Cincinnati getting this far. 

"The Rams' liability is much worse," JBB reported. "We took some really good action when they initially acquired Stafford. Then there was another wave of cash when they traded for Von Miller this season. The Rams winning the Super Bowl would actually be a worse result for the future book."

One of the most crucial players to the Rams’ success is star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who is seemingly getting more expensive by the minute.

Kupp’s receiving yardage prop is currently O/U 105.5 at FOX Bet — the highest in decades in a Super Bowl — and Kupp is a whopping -162 to score a touchdown at any time.

"I’m trying to think of a time when a receiver was that short," JBB mused. "You see it with running backs quite a bit. A guy like Derrick Henry can be -300 to score a touchdown.

"Kupp [to score] in the Super Bowl at -162 is steep, but bettors would happily lay -135 or -145. And remember, we’re not talking about a game where they’re playing the Jaguars or Texans.

"Receivers shouldn’t be -162 in the season’s biggest game, but how can you look at what he’s done all year and say it isn’t justified? If you shorted Kupp last game — 11 catches, 142 yards, two touchdowns — you looked silly."

The "anytime touchdown" market is a relatively new invention in the United States, mostly because you couldn’t place a legal Super Bowl bet outside Nevada before 2019. And Caesars Palace or The Mirage weren’t offering anytime touchdowns when Jerry Rice dominated the 1980s with San Francisco or during Randy Moss’ historic 2007 season in New England.

JBB believes those are very good comparisons as far as price is concerned.

"It comes down to Kupp’s versatility," he opined. "They can literally put him anywhere. If an opposing defense doesn’t have a guy that can play in the slot and outside, it allows Sean McVay to pick his matchup with Kupp. So you better not have any weak spots, because the Rams will find it."

Lastly, the Super Bowl MVP is always a popular prop to bet. Stafford (+105) and Burrow (+225) have the lowest odds, but great payouts await those who don’t bet quarterbacks.

Aaron Donald (+1600 at FOX Bet), anybody?

"It feels like it’s always a quarterback," JBB said. "My best value is probably Burrow (+225 at FOX Bet). If the Bengals win, it’s more likely to be the starting quarterback than if the Rams win. You could see Donald have a big day. Same with Von Miller, who has already won the award. And Cooper Kupp is usually the star of the show when the offense hums."

So if you’re eyeing a bet on the Bengals, it could be a bigger boon for your wallet if you fire on Burrow to win MVP rather than Cincinnati to win outright.

"It’s way more likely to be Burrow if the Bengals win."

Want more Super Bowl 2022 gambling coverage? Check out …

- 6 rules for betting on Super Bowl LVI

- 3 reasons to bet on the Bengals

- 3 reasons to bet on the Rams

- FOX Bet Super 6 "Stack the Cash" Super Bowl picks

- Super Bowl 2022 MVP odds

- 10 general Super Bowl betting trends you need to know

- How to bet Rams-Bengals

- Bengals betting trends

- Rams betting trends

- One betting trend that should worry Matt Stafford

- Super Bowl referee betting trends

- The best Super Bowl 2022 prop bets

- A deep dive on the Rams' "home-field advantage"

- The history of betting on the coin flip

- Everyone's favorite bet: What color will the Gatorade be?

- Fun Super Bowl 2022 bets for beginners, explained

- Is betting on a safety a good idea?

- The history of punt return TD prop bets

- Where the Bengals' unlikely Super Bowl berth ranks in gambling history

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!

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