National Football League

Super Bowl 2022 odds: 3 best early player prop bets for Rams-Bengals

Updated Jan. 18, 2023 10:48 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The matchup for the Big Game is finally set! The Rams and Bengals will meet in Los Angeles for all the marbles in Super Bowl LVI.

And while the game might be just under two weeks away, we can still dive into some early prop bets before the lines move. Here are three of the early bets I'm eyeing, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6:30 p.m. ET Feb. 13, NBC)

I've been critical of Matthew Stafford as he played poorly in the season's final month. But I tip my cap to Staffy for his performances in the Rams' three playoff wins. He has completed 72% of passes for 905 yards, throwing six touchdowns and one interception in that stretch. Stafford wanted out of Detroit for these types of moments, and he's come up big in Los Angeles' run to the title game.

Regarding the Super Bowl, I would expect Stafford's good run to continue against a Bengals' pass defense that isn't that special. The Bucs and 49ers were ranked in the top 11 in pass defense, and Stafford went for over 300 yards against each. The Bengals rank in the bottom third in pass defense, which means the signal-caller should be able to move the ball.

I don't believe the drop-8 coverage that worked against the Chiefs will catch the Rams by surprise. I see Stafford having a big Super Bowl Sunday and eclipsing this mark.

PICK: Matthew Stafford over 275.5 passing yards at FOX Bet

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6:30 p.m. ET Feb. 13, NBC)

I'll keep this simple, the Bengals' offensive line will struggle against this Rams' defensive line. Cincinnati has allowed 59 pressures in the three postseason games while rushing for just 3.62 yards per attempt between mostly Joe Mixon and a handful of carries from Perine. And it doesn't get easier. The Bengals will now face the best defensive line in the playoffs with Aaron Donald, Greg Gaines, A'Shawn Robinson, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd manning the trenches.

The Rams' rushing defense shut down the great Niners' rushing attack, only allowing 50 yards on the ground. And that's after allowing just 51 yards to Tampa Bay and 61 to the Cardinals. This is why I fail to see a path for Mixon to have a monster game against this Rams' front.

PICK: Joe Mixon under 60.5 rushing yards at FOX Bet

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6:30 p.m. ET Feb. 13, NBC)

Joe Burrow has only exceeded this number once in his three playoff outings, and it was in the game where he was sacked nine times by the Titans. That seems counter-intuitive, as sacks should equal fewer opportunities to push the ball down the field.

However, being sacked on first or second down just means you have more opportunities to gain yards with longer fields. Negative yards from sacks do not count toward individual passing yards, and this is how Burrow threw for 340 yards while getting sacked nine times.

I believe this is precisely how it will go down in the Super Bowl. I see a five-yard pass on first down, followed by a nine-yard sack on second down and then a 15-yard completion on third down for a first down. That's 20 yards of passing while technically gaining 10 yards for that first down. Look for some variation of that sequence all game.

PICK: Joe Burrow over 275.5 passing yards at FOX Bet

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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