National Football League

Super Bowl 2022 odds: 3 reasons to bet on the Bengals against the Rams

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 2:50 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The Super Bowl is finally here! And the team no one believed in outside of Cincinnati is one game away from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after a Super Bowl victory.

The main question on everyone's mind is how can the Bengals win this game? We will get to that, but more importantly, how should you wager on this powerhouse matchup taking place Sunday? I have you covered on both questions, with three reasons to bet on the Bengals — with odds via FOX Bet.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Joe Burrow's confidence

The two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl always bring out the flaming hot takes surrounding the game. One of the takes we are hearing now is how Joe Burrow's on-the-field play compares to Tom Brady's. For the record, no one should ever be compared to TB12, especially a player who has not won a Super Bowl yet. These takes are also unfair to Burrow, who is trying to create his own legacy this weekend.

So while I don't believe discussing Joey B. vs. Brady on the field is fair, there is one part of the Joe Burrow package that is similar to Brady. Burrow has Brady's confidence and the simple belief in "I can do this." That aura makes the entire team believe they can win, which translates to their teams playing more freely.

I played with Eli Manning in the years after his two Super Bowl wins and felt this confidence. No matter what was happening, if we were ahead or behind, the team had faith that Eli could lead us to victory. This type of faith allows the entire team to play faster and without fear that a mistake can lose the game. Joe Burrow has done the same for this 2021 Cincinnati squad.

The Bengals have not played perfectly this postseason, but they've played without fear of failure because they know Burrow can save them in any situation. That kind of confidence and energy is powerful, and it's why they are in this spot.

A little luck

When a team makes a Super Bowl run, there's always some luck involved. It can be a small piece of the winning or a larger one, depending on what you consider luck. I think you make your own luck by playing clean football and doing your job, but it's still required to make a deep postseason run.

In 2018 the Patriots needed Dee Ford to line up offsides to continue their quest to the Super Bowl. In 2019, Kansas City caught a break when Patrick Mahomes' knee injury only kept him out for two games. Then in Week 17, the Dolphins upset the Patriots in Foxboro, which gave the Chiefs a home bye in the playoffs. They eventually hosted the wild card Titans instead of the Ravens or Patriots. Then in the Super Bowl, Jimmy Garoppolo missed multiple open receivers near the end of the game and the rest was history.

Last season, the Buccaneers turned the ball over three times on the road against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game. When was the last time a road team won a playoff game with three interceptions? And in the Bucs' next game, they faced a Chiefs' offensive line missing four starters.

Every year, without fail, teams get a little "lucky." Each team mentioned above was able to turn their "luck" into success because they are championship quality teams and made the necessary plays, but we can't overlook those moments.

The Bengals are now converting those luck moments into wins in the playoffs. Case in point, they've forced a turnover in the final minute in three straight one-score playoff games. For reference, this happened twice for Tom Brady's teams in 47 playoff games.

Cincinnati's offensive line has allowed 39 pressures against Burrow in those three playoff games, and he's still standing to play in the Super Bowl. I cannot explain how this hasn't crippled the offense or the team.

The Bengals' defense deserves credit for their halftime adjustments against the Chiefs, but they did not play a revolutionary defense. Mahomes just had the worst half of his career. He missed open receivers, didn't throw to open guys and appeared to lose all confidence.

The Chiefs also forgot they were averaging six yards a carry and refused to use their offensive line to win the game. Nonetheless, the Bengals took advantage of the Chiefs' offensive issues to win the game.

In this next matchup, the Rams have more experience, the better coaching staff, are better in the trenches and on defense, have the best offensive weapon in Cooper Kupp and a quarterback playing well during the playoffs. The Bengals will need some bounces to go their war to win the Big Game, and that's OK to admit.

Disrupt Matthew Stafford

I have discussed the failures of Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense from the AFC Championship Game in length. The Bengals changed their defense at halftime and gave Mahomes looks he wasn't prepared for.

But it wasn't an aberration that the Bengals' defense played well, as the unit improved throughout the season. They ranked fifth of the 14 playoff teams in defensive DVOA, and as mentioned above, forced timely turnovers in the three playoff games on their way to the Super Bowl.

The Bengals' ability to force the Rams' offense into mistakes will be vital to them winning. Matthew Stafford has cleaned up his turnovers in the playoffs, only throwing one interception in his three playoff games. But we've seen it time and time again with Stafford. He is prone to turning it over and throwing passes that can be easily intercepted.

The Bengals need to find ways to disrupt him and hold the Rams in the mid-20s — as they did against the Chiefs — to have a chance in this game. If the Los Angeles offense can get to the upper 20s or higher, it will put too much pressure on the Cincinnati offense to score against this strong Rams defense. So once again, the Bengals' defense will need their best performance of the season for a win.

But, I see Cincinnati being able to do some of the above, which is why I'm grabbing the points in this spot.

PICK: Bengals (+4.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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