National Football League

Super Bowl 2023 odds: 3 reasons to bet on the Eagles against the Chiefs

Updated Feb. 8, 2023 9:50 a.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Philadelphia Eagles are back in the Super Bowl, making their second trip in the last six seasons. But they've got a tough task ahead if they plan to outpoint the Chiefs in the Big Game.

We've heard all the talk about how easy of a road the Eagles have had to the Super Bowl. Yes, they played a young Giants team and then a banged-up 49ers squad that was down to their fourth quarterback. But they are here, one of the last two teams standing. Regardless of how we got to this point, there are 30 other squads wishing they were in this position.

Forget all of that, though. Let's get to the point at hand: How should you wager on this powerhouse matchup?

Don't worry, I have you covered. Here are three reasons why you should bet on the Eagles to "Fly, Eagle Fly" on Sunday night (odds via FOX Bet).

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The Battle of the Trenches

If you’ve been reading this space for the last four years, you know I love to bet the trenches. The last time the Chiefs were in the Super Bowl, they got pushed around, and the Buccaneers rolled.

In this matchup, the Eagles are better on the offensive and defensive lines. They arguably have the best offensive line in the NFL, and the defense ranked second in pressure rate and first in sacks. Mind you, that’s while blitzing at a league-average rate.

You can argue all you want about the team's schedule, the soft NFC and the subpar QBs the Eagles have faced. But always bet on the trenches, and if the Eagles control the line of scrimmage, they’ll win this game.

Struggling Chiefs' Special Teams

Special teams have been a nightmare for the Chiefs at times this season, despite ranking fourth according to Football Outsiders.

Kicker Harrison Butker is struggling, missing a career-high six field goals for the lowest percentage of his career (75%). If that wasn't bad enough, Butker also missed three extra points. And he missed kicks at pivotal moments — in regular season losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati.

Additionally, special teams cost the Chiefs the game against the Colts, but they rebounded nicely in the conference championship with a huge fourth-quarter return by rookie Skyy Moore that helped set up Butker's game-winning kick.

Thankfully, Butker has improved in the postseason, not missing one yet. And while he had a kick blocked in Week 17, he hasn’t missed since Week 15. But can he keep it up under the bright lights? It's a question worth asking.

Chiefs' Defense Is Not Trustworthy

I still don’t trust the Chiefs defense. Yes, their game plan was terrific against the Bengals — who were down three offensive linemen — but Cincinnati still had two chances to take the lead in the fourth quarter. And this was not a fluke. The Jaguars had an awful start in the divisional round and still clawed back in the fourth quarter to make it interesting.

Those games were at home, but this game is in Arizona and the Chiefs face a diverse offense that appears fully healthy. K.C. has had problems stopping No. 1 receivers (ranking 31st in the NFL) and A.J. Brown should be in line for a monster game (also a fun MVP sprinkle), as the Chiefs have to go heavier to try and stop the run. Give me to the Eagles to cover!

PICK: Eagles (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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