National Football League

Super Bowl 2023 odds: Sharp action, big liability, wild Super Bowl MVP bet

Updated Feb. 9, 2023 1:43 p.m. ET

For the past week or so, it’s been all quiet on the southwestern front, with little or no Super Bowl odds movement for Sunday’s game in suburban Phoenix. The Philadelphia Eagles have been stable 1.5-point favorites at FOX Bet against the Kansas City Chiefs with perhaps a stray Philly -2 out there at a sportsbook or two.

But with game day approaching for the largest-bet single-day event in America – kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX Sports and the FOX Sports App – the ground could and likely will start to shift.

Let’s dive into a plethora of Super Bowl betting nuggets, with insights from oddsmakers, info on where the sharp money is, and an accounting of the biggest bets so far – including a $1 million wager.

Not Rocket Science

Rex Beyers has been around the block as an oddsmaker. He’s worked with top-shelf teams at Caesars Sports, South Point and The SuperBook, among others. He’s now the head of wagering at PlayUp USA, which operates in Colorado and New Jersey.

Oftentimes, Beyers likes having an opinion in his bookmaking process. He doesn’t mind taking a position on one side and setting up his odds to invite more action on the other side. But in the case of Super Bowl LVII, he doesn’t really have a strong stance.

"We like the Chiefs, but we’re not sitting here trying to beg for money on either side," Beyers said Wednesday night, before addressing where the action is at this point. "We’ve got money on Chiefs +2 and on Eagles moneyline -120. Most of our business is sharp, and we’re almost even to it."

PlayUp is at Eagles -1.5 on the spread, falling back from -2 after sharp money came in on Chiefs +2. And Beyers is anticipating more movement toward the short underdog Kansas City.

"It’s not gonna go back to Eagles -2. I think it’s going back down," Beyers said. "But the fact that this number is near a pick ‘em tells you the game can go either way. We’re not splitting the atom here."

Watch on FOX, Wager on FOX Bet

FOX Bet finds itself in a bit of a Super Bowl conundrum. The sportsbook operates in Colorado – not exactly rife with Chiefs fans, being Broncos country – and in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, two states very much rife with rabid Eagles fans.

As such, trading operations senior manager Dylan Brossman said FOX Bet’s need has been and will continue to be short underdog Kansas City. Specifically, Philly is a big liability in the Super Bowl championship futures market, which has been on the odds board for pretty much a year now.

"The Chiefs are a great result for our Super Bowl outright [futures], perhaps due to some K.C. and Patrick Mahomes fatigue this season," Brossman said. "Conversely, the Birds would be a negative result for our outright. We laid them at a high price early in the season, and our userbase is concentrated in the Pennsylvania and New Jersey area."

However, Brossman noted that on the moneyline – which has only been on the board since Jan. 29 and is simply betting on which team wins Sunday’s game – FOX Bet currently has the best price out there on the Chiefs, at +110. Most other sportsbooks have K.C. at either +100 or +105. That +110 is appealing to customers as game day nears.

"We are currently industry top price on the Chiefs moneyline, resulting in a nice counterbalance to our Philly liability in the outright [futures]," Brossman said, before throwing in a note of caution. "It is still early, however, as we expect 70-80% of all [pregame] Super Bowl bets to come within the final 24 hours before kickoff."

Public Opinion

With sports betting in general, and particularly the NFL, public/recreational bettors love favorites and love points. Those facts are magnified exponentially for the Super Bowl, which brings in not only the typical casual bettors, but once-a-year bettors and even those making a bet for the first time in their lives.

Everyone wants some skin in the game, and they want an entertaining – read: high-scoring – game come Super Bowl Sunday. So every bookmaker on the planet will be rooting against the Over, no matter how much sharp play comes in on the Under.

Most sportsbooks opened the total at 49.5, and as the weekend approaches, the number is at 50.5 or 51, depending on where you shop, with PlayUp at 51. But with all the public money set to roll in over the next three days, there’s almost no chance the total is going lower.

"There’s not gonna be enough sharp money to stop it. It’ll close at 51 or higher," Beyers said. "The public money on the Super Bowl is just too much, it overwhelms the sharp money. It’s one of the only games of the year that wiseguy money can’t overcome that.

"Public bettors want stuff to happen. Who wants to bet on the Under? Who wants a Super Bowl like the Patriots-Rams from four years ago?"

To refresh your memory: That matchup in Super Bowl 53 was a 13-3 sleeper of a New England victory.

Knowing the public will not only bet Over on the total but also bet Over and Yes on all the popular Super Bowl prop bets, Beyers supplied some sound advice for less-experienced bettors.

"If you want the Under, you’ve got to wait all the way to the very end, right before kickoff, to get the best odds," he said.

The Sharp Side

In our weekly check-in with a well-regarded professional bettor here in Las Vegas, he reminds us that last week, he jumped on Over 49.5 at the outset.

"It should close 51 or higher," he said, mirroring Beyers’ opinion.

Since then, he’s made a few wagers on prop bets that align with his opinion that there’ll be no shortage of scoring. In fact, he anticipates scoring in the very early going, making these plays on similarly worded props:

$2,000 Yes +100 (even money) on either team scoring in the first 6.5 minutes

$1,000 Yes +165 on either team scoring in the first 5.5 minutes

$1,000 Yes +270 on either team scoring in the first 4.5 minutes

$1,000 Yes +400 on either team scoring in the first 3.5 minutes

"I feel like both teams are going to come out aggressive and try to score right from the get-go," he said. "I don’t think there’s going to be a feeling-out point."

If he wins the last bet on that list, he wins them all, for a tidy profit of $10,350.

More Popular Props

Over at BetMGM, there are oodles of Super Bowl prop bets. And of course, two of the most popular props will settle up before the game even kicks off:

What will be the outcome of the coin toss?

Who will win the coin toss?

It’s kind of crazy that these bets are so popular, as it’s both figuratively and literally a coin toss as to whether you win either bet. So the payout is nothing crazy. BetMGM has the odds at -105 on both sides of both props – Heads/Tails and Chiefs/Eagles – meaning a winning $105 bet would turn a profit of $100.

But at least the betting splits at BetMGM show customers are aware of the absolute 50/50 nature of this wager. On the coin toss, Tails is taking 51% of tickets and 55% of money so far. On who wins the toss, 52% of tickets and 59% of dollars are on the Eagles.

The most interesting prop, however, has come to life thanks to a purported Super Bowl script landing on social media and such. That script shows the Eagles beating the Chiefs 37-34, and the conspiracy theorists apparently are buying into the fake news.

"The correct score of 37-34 Eagles is our worst result, thanks to Twitter memes," BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said of the currently 80/1 long shot play.

In a prop bet popular at BetMGM and pretty much everywhere else, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is getting plenty of business to score the game’s first touchdown. Kelce is the +650 favorite, followed by Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and Eagles running back Miles Sanders at +800.

If you think this game will be the dullest Super Bowl ever, you can take No Touchdowns Scored at 80/1.

And on the prop of Gatorade color, Green/Yellow is taking the most tickets while moving from the +350 second choice to the +275 favorite at BetMGM. Orange opened as the +250 favorite and is now +300.

QB or not QB? That is the Question

Meanwhile, BetMGM is seeing interesting action in the MVP market, as well. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the +130 favorite, followed very closely by Hurts at +140, and it quickly drops off from there, with Kelce the +1100 third choice.

So which player is most concerning for BetMGM?

"Kenneth Gainwell is the biggest liability for Super Bowl MVP," Magee said of the Eagles’ backup running back, a 125/1 long shot.

In fact, BetMGM took a $2,500 play on Gainwell at 125/1. Should Gainwell somehow have the game of his life, that bettor will pocket $312,500 in winnings.

"All things considered, we need a starting QB to win the award," Magee said, alluding to much of BetMGM’s liability being on Kelce, Gainwell, Sanders and Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick.

Kelce opened at +2800 and slid out to +3500 before the divisional round, then shorted to +2500 before the AFC Championship Game. He moved to +1100 after the win over the Bengals. Reddick was available at 250/1 through the divisional round, moved to 100/1 ahead of the NFC Championship Game, then went to +3000, where he sits now.

Sanders also opened 250/1 and has closed into +2500. Gainwell wasn’t even on BetMGM’s Super Bowl MVP odds board until after the NFC title win over the 49ers, and he’s still at the opening 125/1, despite the heavy liability.

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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

OK, per usual, let’s wrap this up with the largest reported wagers thus far in the Super Bowl LVII odds market. Right at the top of the list is a bet that dropped Saturday morning at BetMGM: $1 million on Eagles moneyline -125.

So if the Eagles just win the game, then that customer’s bank account will increase by $800,000.

Caesars Sports reported the following major wagers:

$150,000 Chiefs +1.5

$150,000 Eagles -1.5

$150,000 Chiefs moneyline +105

$314,000 on Chiefs alternate spread +3.5 (-157)

$270,039.85 (yes, the 85 cents too) Over 50.5

$220,000 Under 51

$110,000 Under 51

$220,000 Under 50.5

Those last two wagers came from the same Caesars customer, in Arizona. Should the Chiefs and Eagles put up less than 51 points, that bettor will bring home $300,000 in profit. Not a bad day’s work, if you can get it.

As for me, I’m more about the #ChilisMoney bets. My favorite Super Bowl prop bet of these past few years isn’t offered at very many places, but Circa Sports has it here in Vegas. The bet’s creator, Mitch Goldich of Sports Illustrated, calls it The Octopus.

The reason? Because the prop asks: Will a player score a touchdown, then score the subsequent 2-point conversion? So ostensibly, will a player score 8 points on one drive?

I’m on Yes at +1300, and it’s likely destined to lose, but you never know. I’m also on Chiefs alternate spread -6.5 (+240), so fade me accordingly! And remember to keep it reasonable Sunday. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the Big Game.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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