National Football League

Super Bowl 2023 odds: Sharp betting edges for Chiefs-Eagles

Updated Feb. 9, 2023 7:14 p.m. ET

Warren Sharp

FOX Sports NFL Writer

I shared my in-depth analytics-styled breakdown of the Super Bowl earlier this week.

But there are a few other areas we can dive deeper into which might help us uncover some betting angles.

My goal for this weekly column is to always provide you with nuggets you didn’t know before reading this piece.

Let's take a look at my favorite edges so far, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Let's start with the Chiefs' tight ends.

When the Eagles faced multiple TE sets in the red zone, such as 12 personnel, 13 personnel or an occasional snap vs. 22 personnel, the Eagles defense was terrible.

Against multi-TE sets of 12, 13 or 22 personnel, the Eagles red-zone defense ranked 28th, allowing 56% of opponent snaps to be successful.

And shockingly, the Eagles pass defense, the better part of their red-zone defense, ranks 30th when teams are passing from multi-TE sets.

The Chiefs have used 11 personnel on just 50.7% of red-zone plays, which ranks 29th in the NFL (avg = 69%).

Instead, they’ve used 12 personnel on a whopping 32.6% of red-zone plays. That’s the second-highest in the NFL.

And 13 personnel?

How about 11.6%, which also happens to be the second-highest in the NFL.

This is a match made in heaven for the Chiefs.

In the red zone, the Eagles have shown the most vulnerability to TE targets:

23rd in EPA/att
30th in success rate
31st in YPA

Which is the exact area of the field the Chiefs use a ton of 2-3 TE sets and may once again have success deceiving the Eagles and hitting them where they struggle to defend.

And specifically, if you eliminate TE targets when the TE is aligned out wide and focus only on red-zone targets vs. TEs aligned in the slot or in-line on the end of the line of scrimmage, the Eagles pass defense ranks:

30th in EPA/att (+0.88)
30th in success rate (86% success)
32nd in YPA (7.1 YPA)
32nd in passer rating (136.0)

The sample size naturally is quite small when we’re parsing this deep, but when the Chiefs do have the ball in the red zone, they should look to keep Travis Kelce or other receiving TEs in the slot or in-line, as that is where they should see the most success vs. the Eagles red-zone defense.

LEAN: I'd look at the KC TEs to score a TD. Kelce is -120 and if you want to go even deeper, Jody Fortson is +1400

Eagles GM Howie Roseman discusses Jalen Hurts' growth into a franchise QB

Philadelphia Eagles General Manager and Executive Vice President Howie Roseman discuss what makes him a franchise QB ahead of Super Bowl LVII.

Speaking of tight ends, the Eagles have come a long way since their 2-TE heavy offense under Doug Pederson with Zach Ertz leading the way.

Look at the Eagles usage of 11 personnel on early downs in the first three quarters of games, by year:

2019: 37% (29th)
2020: 48% (20th)
2021: 60% (8th)
2022: 76% (3rd)

That’s right, what once was the fourth-least 11-personnel offense just four years ago has sharply adjusted in 2022 with the acquisition of A.J. Brown to the third-most 11-personnel offense.

And that’s bad news for the Chiefs defense.

Considering the Eagles use 13 personnel about a league average of 4% of plays, don’t use 21 personnel, and focus almost exclusively in 11 (76%) with some 12 (19%), let’s see how the Chiefs do defending these groupings.

On early downs in the first three quarters, the Chiefs rank:

Vs. 12 personnel passes: 16th (+0.10 EPA/play)
Vs. 11 personnel passes: 31st (+0.23 EPA/play)

And the same exercise, but since Week 10:

Vs. 12 personnel passes: 3rd (-0.15 EPA/play)
Vs. 11 personnel passes: 30th (+0.17 EPA/play)

The Chiefs rank 31st on the season vs. 11 personnel passes, which is the grouping the Eagles use at the third-highest rate in the NFL on early downs.

On the season, the Chiefs are allowing +0.44 EPA/att, 60% success and 8.8 YPA when teams target wide receivers in 11 personnel on early downs.

DeVonta Smith sees his target rate spike by nearly 4% when facing two-high coverage rather than single-high, and the Chiefs play the NFL's highest rate of two-high coverage this season.

LEAN: I think Smith can exceed his 61.5-yardage total

Eagles RB-runs on early downs in the first three quarters of games rank:

First in EPA/play (+0.12 | NFL avg = -0.07, No. 2 team = +0.03)
First in success rate (50% | NFL avg = 37%, No. 2 team = 43%)
First in YPC (5.2 | NFL avg = 4.5, No. 2 team also at 5.2)
Second in rate of runs to gain 5-plus yards (45% | NFL avg = 37%)
Third in rate of runs to gain 3-plus yards before contact (31% | NFL avg = 25%)
Fourth in explosive run rate (10.7% | NFL avg = 7.5%)
Fourth in yards before contact per rush (2.0 | NFL avg = 1.5)

This team is absolutely elite on the ground despite a tough schedule of opposing run defenses.

Meanwhile, The Chiefs run defense has faced the second-easiest schedule of run offenses this year. And yet they still rank below average.

Additionally, the Chiefs played with 7-plus box defenders at the fourth-lowest rate of any defense.

And since Week 5, the Chiefs have played 14 games (removing Week 18). Their opponents exceeded their yards before contact season-long average in nine of the 14 games, and the only teams that did not were almost exclusively bottom-10 in the metric on the season, while the Eagles rank fourth in the metric on the year.

LEAN: Miles Sanders should have every chance to exceed his rushing projection of 59.5 yards.

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball

Top stories from FOX Sports: