National Football League

Title contenders’ kryptonite: Trouble spots for Chiefs, Lions, Bills, Eagles, Ravens

Published Dec. 11, 2024 3:19 p.m. ET

With a month left in the regular season, a handful of favorites have emerged that can legitimately contend for the Super Bowl.

You know the teams — the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens. According to oddsmakers, those are the five favorites heading into the back stretch of the regular season.

Any one of those teams is capable of taking home the Lombardi Trophy. But what about the soft underbelly of those teams that can prevent a deep postseason run? Here, we take a closer look at how the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Lions and Ravens could stub their toes in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs: Will Patrick Mahomes' turnover bug cost them?

Yes, the Chiefs have a habit of making games interesting each week. Ten of the team's 12 wins have been by seven points or fewer, including the latest — a 19-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on a 31-yard field goal that bounced off the left upright and through the goal post.

The Chiefs are set up to hold home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and chase an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl.

However, something that could keep Kansas City is actually the substandard play of Mahomes in one key area. He's had trouble taking care of the football, having already thrown 11 interceptions this season. He's also been sacked 35 times, tied for sixth-most in the league. So, keeping Mahomes upright, healthy and holding onto the football are key issues for Kansas City heading down the backstretch of the season.

The Chiefs are tied for the NFL lead with a 12-1 record, but they have a minus-4 turnover margin, which is tied for No. 22 in the league. Kansas City has lost the turnover battle four times this season, but only lost one of those games — to the Bills on the road in Week 10.

Mahomes has 87 turnovers since entering the league in 2018. According to FOX Sports Research, the Chiefs have a 48-19 record (including postseason) in games where Mahomes has at least one turnover. Kansas City is 53-7 in games in which Mahomes has not turned the ball over.

In NFL history, the Chiefs are the 26th team to start 12-1 — and the only one with a point differential worse than plus-89. Kansas City's plus-56 point differential ranks No. 11 in the NFL this season. The Chiefs have been fortunate to close out games and are not the dominant team their record indicates.

The last time Kansas City failed to reach the Super Bowl, after the 2021 season, Mahomes threw two interceptions in an AFC Championship Game loss at Arrowhead Stadium to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Can Josh Allen and the Bills do what the Bengals pulled off in Arrowhead in 2021?

Detroit Lions: Can the banged-up defense finish the season strong?

The Lions are fielding a M*A*S*H unit on defense.

Detroit lost the front-runner to win the league's Defensive Player of the Year award early when edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending broken leg in Week 6.

Five of Detroit's seven starters up front in last week's win over the Green Bay Packers were not on the 53-man roster to start the season. The Lions have a league-leading 13 defensive players on the team's injured reserve list.

While Detroit has the NFL's top scoring offense at 32.1 points per game, the Lions defense is allowing 225 passing yards a game, No. 23 in the league.

Detroit's pass defense will be tested again this week when the Bills face Buffalo.

Buffalo Bills: Will run defense, late-game mismanagement derail them?

Led by MVP front-runner Allen, the Bills have been a juggernaut on offense in 2024. The defense, however, has sprung leaks at times this year, showing vulnerability.

Buffalo allowed a league-high 44 points in a road loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week, as Matthew Stafford rolled up 320 passing yards. Even more concerning was Buffalo's inability to stop the run, as the Rams totaled 137 yards on the ground, led by Kyren Williams' 87 rushing yards.

Bills' defeat against Rams a bad loss or bad sign?

The Bills play at least five defensive backs an NFL-high 97.5% of the time and, according to Next Gen Stats, they are in light boxes (six defenders or fewer at the line of scrimmage) 51.6 % of the time, No. 7 in the league.

Because they play predominantly with smaller personnel on the field, Buffalo is susceptible to giving up explosive plays on the ground, which could be an issue against teams that like to grind out yards in cold weather playoff games. Buffalo has allowed 11 rushes of 20-plus yards this season, tied for seventh-worst in the NFL.

The Bills face the top rushing offense in the NFL this week when they travel to Detroit.

Along with that, Bills head coach Sean McDermett has struggled at times with managing late-game situations, the latest of which was how he handled his timeouts late in the game in Buffalo's loss to the Rams.

Philadelphia Eagles: Will they generate more explosive plays, overcome bad vibes?

Philadelphia is riding a nine-game winning streak and has one of the best records in the NFL. However, the Eagles are still dealing with some uncomfortable dynamics within the team.

It started early in the year, with head coach Nick Sirianni taunting frustrated Eagles fans at the end of a Week 6 win over the Cleveland Browns.

And Philadelphia's reliance on Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts and a dynamic running game has led to No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown questioning his role in the passing game. Brown has a point. Philadelphia has just one passing play of 20-plus yards over the past two games. And its struggles pushing the ball down the field could lead to issues in the postseason, affecting the team's ability to play the game on its own terms.

The Eagles have scored a league-low 17 points in the opening quarter. And if they fall behind early, will Hurts be able to lead the Eagles without an explosive passing game?

Are Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown’s issues signaling another Eagles implosion?

Baltimore Ravens: Can defense, Justin Tucker turn back the clock?

Tucker is the second-most accurate field-goal kicker in NFL history (89%), but this season, he has been the second-least accurate kicker in the league, making just 19 of 27 field goals for a career-low 70.4%.

Tucker has missed a league-high 10 kicks, which has affected Baltimore's ability to win close games down the stretch and could impact the Ravens in the postseason.

Along with that, the loss of former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, now the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, has negatively impacted Baltimore's defense. New Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr has struggled to get his group to play consistently. The Ravens are allowing a league-worst 264 passing yards a game and have just 11 takeaways on the year, tied for No. 23 in the league.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.

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