National Football League

Super Bowl LVII contenders re-ranked after wild-card round

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 6:03 p.m. ET

The best weekend of the NFL calendar will soon be upon us.

The NFL divisional playoffs — with four games over two days — is the top the league has to offer. As we head into this upcoming weekend of action, how confident am I in each of the eight remaining squad's chances at winning the Super Bowl?

I'm glad you asked. Check out the rankings:

8. New York Giants (Last week's rank: 11)

Don't let the Giants being the lowest-seeded team remaining in the postseason take away from their season-long performance and their huge victory Sunday in Minnesota.

They deserve all the praise they've gotten. They are well-coached. Daniel Jones played well Sunday and has eliminated costly turnovers. The interior of the Giants defense might be the best left in the postseason. However, the Giants are the least talented team remaining. They are a year ahead of schedule.

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7. Jacksonville Jaguars (LW: 10)

Are the Jaguars the 2021 Bengals? Win a close home game in the wild-card round, then travel on the road to face the top seed in the conference. The Jaguars are going to come to Arrowhead with the utmost of confidence after their epic comeback victory over the Chargers.

I think it's a tall task to beat the Chiefs, but if they do, they are a legit contender to win the Super Bowl. I'm not sure the Jaguars defense can slow the Chiefs down enough to make an upset come to fruition Saturday.

6. Dallas Cowboys (LW: 9)

Well, hello, Cowboys. Welcome back. We saw the best of the Cowboys as they dismantled the poor Bucs, who are a mess. I think most of us believed in the power of Tom Brady, but the Bucs looked pretty powerless against Dallas.

This Cowboys team can win and win at a high level. When Dak Prescott isn't turning it over and when the pass rush has returned, they are a complete team. However, they have a tough path through San Francisco on a short week and then potentially in Philadelphia.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (LW: 3)

The Chiefs have the best offense with the MVP at quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. No concerns about what the offense will do this postseason.

However, it's a team game, and the Chiefs are ranked fifth because of their other phases. The Kansas City defense has slowly creeped back up to nearly league average over the final month of the season, a positive development for its Super Bowl chances. However, I'm not sure any Chiefs fan would feel confident in their defense against the Bills or Bengals right now. The Chiefs special teams have been anything but special this season, and it's potentially going to cost them in the playoffs.

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4. Philadelphia Eagles (LW: 4)

I just need a clearer picture of the Eagles injury situation before I move them up in my confidence rankings. I do believe they will handle business against the Giants this week even without Lane Johnson, but that specific injury is going to hurt against Nick Bosa and the Niners' pass rush.

Jalen Hurts, who might or might not be 100%, is back under center. I just want to see the Eagles beat the Giants as they should, by a few touchdowns. They are better everywhere. They should dominate the Giants.

If they do, they go ahead of the 49ers for me. But I just need to see it first.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (LW: 2)

Whereas the Bills played a poor game by losing the turnover battle, allowing a defensive score and handing the Dolphins short fields, the Bengals played a poor game AND got all the turnover luck. Cincinnati had a 14-point swing when Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley foolishly attempted to reach the ball over the goal line for a touchdown. Credit the Bengals defense for being ready, but an all-time bonehead play by Huntley.

The Bengals offense lost a third starting offensive lineman Sunday night and presumably enter the game against Buffalo without three starters upfront. Their offensive line woes never seem to bother Joe Burrow, but at some point, it has to matter.

The Bills pass rush isn't the same without Von Miller, but it would worry me if I'm a Bengals fan. The Bengals do not make crippling mistakes. No bad turnovers. No blown coverages. No dumb penalties. This is an important quality to have, and it's helpful for their game Sunday.

2. San Francisco 49ers (LW: 5)

Tad recency bias with the Eagles on a bye, but the 49ers are the most well-rounded team in the NFL at the moment. If they did not have a rookie playing quarterback, they'd easily be the favorite — however, that rookie quarterback, Brock Purdy, has yet to lose a game as a starter in the NFL.

Purdy did not play that well in the Niners' 41-23 victory over the Seahawks, missing throws early and when he did hit some receivers, the throws weren't always accurate. However, none of that mattered as the 49ers scored 38 points because they have so many weapons and a killer run game.

Pairing the fiercest pass rush with the most physical defense left in the playoffs makes this team the most talented remaining. Now, it's totally fair to wonder about Purdy on the road against the Eagles. But for right now, I'll put the 49ers ahead of the Eagles.

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1. Buffalo Bills (LW: 1)

The Bills have the highest highs of any team in the postseason because of their quarterback. Josh Allen can sling it when he's on. There is no stopping him. Pro Football Focus measured seven big-time throws, the most in a single game for his career, in Buffalo's 34-31 victory over Miami.

The Bills also started using Allen more in the run game, which is expected when the games matter most. Now, with the Bills' highs come their lows, which are bad for an elite team. Allen still makes some silly mistakes that lead to turnovers, which is scary if you're a Bills fan.

The Bills defense allowed 24 offensive points to the Dolphins, a number far too high for facing a third-string quarterback. However, 13 of those 24 points occurred when the Dolphins started in Bills' territory. I will stick with my Bills pick to win the Super Bowl as I do believe they can play the best of any team on the board still.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.

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