National Football League

Super Bowl odds on move after NFL trade deadline, 49ers huge liability

Updated Jan. 18, 2023 10:52 a.m. ET

The NFL trade deadline made Tuesday a pretty active day for the league. Some noteworthy transactions could very much improve teams’ prospects, and from a gambling perspective, the deals caused the Super Bowl odds board to move.

As always, all sportsbooks react differently. In fact, the two most noteworthy deadline moves, from the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings, led one oddsmaker to stand pat entirely.

In the trade deadline’s wake, PointsBet USA and FOX Bet provided information and insights on the odds of winning the Super Bowl. Let's dive into the impact.

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In one of Tuesday’s bigger deals, the Dolphins added standout outside linebacker Bradley Chubb in a trade with the Denver Broncos. Miami is 5-3, and with QB Tua Tagovailoa again healthy, the Dolphins looked to shore up their defense.

However, Points USA held Miami at +2800 in its Super Bowl odds market. When championship odds were first posted in February, the Dolphins were +4000.

On the other hand, FOX Bet made a huge adjustment when it comes to Miami's Super Bowl odds. Dylan Brossman, FOX Bet senior trading operations manager, confirmed the Dolphins improved from +3000 to win the Super Bowl before the trade to +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total) afterward.

New Kings of the NFC North?

In an interesting deal, the Detroit Lions sent tight end T.J. Hockenson to the NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings. The move bolsters a Vikings team that’s 6-1 and has been on the move in Super Bowl odds.

Minnesota opened +2500 and is now the +1400 co-fifth choice at PointsBet, with Baltimore and Dallas. On the FOX Bet side, the Vikings shortened slightly from +1500 to +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total) to win it all.

While the Vikings' odds didn't change off the Hockenson deal, Minnesota and Miami are getting bettors’ attention.

"We didn’t move the prices on the Fins or Vikes as of yet," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said Tuesday night. "But if the action continues to pick up at this steady pace, we may have to shift them in a tad."

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Nothing finer

The San Francisco 49ers made arguably the biggest trade splash but did so well before Tuesday’s deadline. On Oct. 20, the Niners added running back Christian McCaffrey in a huge deal with the Carolina Panthers.

There was an initial Super Bowl futures odds ripple from that deal, which expanded in the wake of McCaffrey’s big Week 8 performance. McCaffrey had a touchdown running, receiving and passing in San Francisco’s 31-14 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

Bettors are quite intrigued with San Francisco, even though the squad is only 4-4.

"The Niners are a different story," Korn said, noting PointsBet was compelled to shorten San Francisco’s odds, unlike the Dolphins and Vikings. "Since CMC was traded, the Niners have moved from +1700 to +1200 to win the Super Bowl and from +750 to +650 to win the NFC. Action on San Francisco has increased a ton in the last week or so.

"The 49ers are now in the top 10 of bet count to win the Super Bowl. They were out of the top 15 prior to the trade. The 49ers have also surpassed the Bills in terms of liability to win the Super Bowl."

Buffalo had been PointsBet’s largest liability among teams seen as legitimate playoff/Super Bowl contenders this season. San Francisco has now taken that mantle.

"The 49ers are definitely a team we are concerned about," Korn said.

San Francisco is the fourth choice in PointsBet’s Super Bowl odds market, trailing only the Bills (+240), Philadelphia Eagles (+500) and Kansas City Chiefs (+600).

At FOX Bet, Brossman said the 49ers were +1500 pre-McCaffrey deal. Earlier Tuesday, San Fran was +1300, then moved to +1200 by Tuesday night (bet $10 to win $130 total).

That makes the Niners the fourth choice at FOX Bet, again behind the Bills (+260), Eagles (+500) and Chiefs (+650).

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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