Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 14 odds
Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week's NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we've got you covered.
Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.
So, without further ado, let's jump into their analysis for Week 14, including what they think about San Francisco — the new Super Bowl favorite — taking on the Seattle Seahawks at home on FOX Sports and the FOX Sports App.
Jason McIntyre: Too low
The Cowboys are coming off extra rest, having defeated Seattle on Thursday, while the Eagles got beaten down by the 49ers.
The Eagles have given up 140+ rushing yards in the last four games, and this brutal stretch of games is catching up with them.
Jason McIntyre: Too high
Expect a bit of a comedown from the 49ers after beating the 10-1 Eagles in an emotional game. At 6-6, Seattle is desperate to keep up in the Wild Card race and badly needs a win here, especially with Philadelphia up next.
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
The Texans have a legitimate playoff team that battles each week with C.J. Stroud at quarterback.
The Jets are putrid. To be fair, their defense is still playing well, but the offense can’t score at all.
This number isn’t higher because the Texans have played worse on the road and haven’t seen an away stadium in a month.
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Buccaneers @ Falcons (-2.5)
Sam Panayotovich: Just right
Atlanta is a maddening team this year. The Falcons have four losses by one score and are 2-6 against the spread as a favorite.
I don’t want to bet the Bucs here, either. Pass.
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
Jacksonville will be on a short week after a Monday Night Football game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Browns looked far more competent on offense with Joe Flacco, and we know the Browns defense is outstanding.
The Jaguars offense can be special but is too hit or miss. The Browns' pass rush could harass Trevor Lawrence.
I like this number.
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
This number is just right for now, with the Bengals still yet to play on Monday Night Football. It’s possible this team is a dead man walking without Joe Burrow at quarterback.
If they get blown out by the Jaguars, I think coming back on a short week will be tough for them.
The Colts are still fighting for a playoff berth and need this win.
Sam Panayotovich: Too high
The hooks are already starting to disappear, and it’s only Monday.
If you can still grab a 7.5, that’s probably a good idea against a Rams offense that’s finally healthy.
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Jason McIntyre: Too high
Injuries are catching up with the Saints, who have struggled to stop anyone in the last few weeks. And Dennis Allen’s offense remains disjointed and downright bad.
The Panthers aren’t tanking, and I expect them to be frisky again this week in a divisional matchup.
Sam Panayotovich: Too low
Both teams enter Week 14 off the bye, but the Vikings get their best player back. Star receiver Justin Jefferson will make a difference in the desert.
I expect to see -3 real soon.
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Sam Panayotovich: Too high
The Bears were the better football team in the last meeting for 57 minutes. Justin Fields is a matchup nightmare for Detroit’s overrated defense.
Take the points.
Jason McIntyre: Too high
The Chargers aren’t very good right now, mostly due to injuries, but drops have been a problem. They have no offense outside of Keenan Allen and couldn’t reach the red zone once against the hapless Patriots.
Sam Panayotovich: Just right
The Chiefs opened as a 3-point favorite, and wise guys couldn’t take the field goal quickly enough after K.C. lost to Green Bay. I lean toward Kansas City, but it’s a pass for me.
Geoff Schwartz: Too high
Yes, New England stinks and lost their third game allowing 10 points or fewer this season.
But the Steelers just got dominated by the Arizona Cardinals as 6.5-point favorites and are historically awful as big favorites under Tomlin.
Jason McIntyre: Too low
This number should have been north of 14. The Dolphins continue to smother inferior teams, and I’m not going to wait for the injury report on the Titans (Derrick Henry, Jeffrey Simmons).
Geoff Schwartz: Too high
If Tyrod Taylor is back for the Giants, I like them in this spot, and I think the sharps will take the Giants with the points.
The Packers are coming off their biggest win with Jordan Love, while the Giants are fresh off a bye.
Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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