Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 15 odds
Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week's NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we've got you covered.
Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.
So, without further ado, let's jump into their analysis for Week 15, including what they think about the new team to beat in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys, hitting the road to square off against the Buffalo Bills on FOX Sports and the FOX Sports App.
Jason McIntyre: Too low
The Bills were perceived as "lucky" to beat the Chiefs after a flag wiped out the go-ahead Chiefs score. But the Bills took money all week and delivered.
Dallas did, too, but that was at home against a weary Eagles team.
Unless some major injuries pop up, I’m on the Bills up to -2.5.
Jason McIntyre: Too low
This Cleveland defense at home really is unbelievable, and as good as Chicago has been defensively in recent weeks, there’s a big coaching edge here for Kevin Stefanski, and dare I say it … Joe Flacco is kind of good?
Chargers @ Raiders (-3)
Sam Panayotovich: Just right
Don’t expect to see Justin Herbert on Thursday night, which the betting line already tells us. There’s just no reason at all for me to bet on this game. Huge pass.
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Geoff Schwartz: Just right
This number feels right, considering how both teams are playing.
The Steelers lost two straight weeks against teams with two wins, and neither game was close.
Kenny Pickett is out, and T.J. Watt is in concussion protocol.
The Colts are just better and at home. This number makes sense.
Jason McIntyre: Too high
Too high. Are the Broncos lucky (turnovers, facing backup QBs), or good? It doesn’t really matter, as Detroit just can’t stop anyone right now defensively.
Expect Sean Payton to dial up a ball-control attack to keep Jared Goff off the field.
Sam Panayotovich: Too low
Carolina absolutely stinks, and Atlanta is 2-7 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite. Woof.
The talent levels aren’t even close, though. If Arthur Smith feeds the ball to his skill guys, the Falcons should cover.
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
The Dolphins steamroll bad football teams, and don’t let the Jets' offensive performance from Sunday fool you. They are not a whole football team, and I do not expect them to score much in Miami.
The Dolphins defense has been fantastic since the return of Jalen Ramsey.
This game screams 21-7, 23-10, etc. … 12 feels good.
Geoff Schwartz: Too high
I'm a tad surprised to see the Titans favored in this game.
This feels like an overreaction to the Texans' poor performance against the Jets because the Titans are 25th in DVOA.
If the Titans lose on Monday night against the Dolphins, I see Houston taking money quickly.
Sam Panayotovich: Too high
Derek Carr is one of the worst ATS quarterbacks of all time when he’s a betting favorite. And this line will drop if the Giants hang around against the streaking Packers tonight.
Buccaneers @ Packers (-3.5)
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
This is a good number for this game.
The Packers are playing good football (pre-Monday Night Football), and the Bucs just won against the Falcons on Sunday.
Green Bay is slightly better and at home, so three plus the hook is ideal.
If the Packers defeat the Giants, I could see this number hitting four quickly.
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Geoff Schwartz: Too high
As currently constructed, the Chiefs are not a 9-point favorite over anyone in the NFL. This number will be shaped throughout the week, and I’d venture it closes closer to a touchdown.
Neither of these teams will be able to score.
Sam Panayotovich: Too high
I would still wait it out if you’re looking to bet on the Birds. There’s a very good chance we’ll see some 14 later this week.
The Niners have a big one on deck against Baltimore in Week 16.
Commanders @ Rams (-6.5)
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
The Commanders are coming off a bye, but they are not playing good football right now. They allow a ton of points, and Sam Howell is a turnover machine.
Despite the close loss to the Ravens, the Rams are a good football team. They are better coached and have more motivation.
'This is football' – Vikings' Harrison Phillips speaks on 3-0 win over Raiders
Jason McIntyre: Too low
The Passtronaut was a fun story, but he was benched in Vegas, and they lost Justin Jefferson to injury while only scoring three points.
The Bengals have found something in Jake Browning — let’s see how he handles the Vikings pressure — and the offense has unlocked Chase Brown, whose speed has surprised defenses.
Jason McIntyre: Too low
The Jags have no home-field advantage, already losing four games at home this season.
Joe Flacco rang up 389 yards of offense and should have won with a margin last week against the Jags if not for three turnovers.
Eagles (-4) @ Seahawks
Sam Panayotovich: Just right
Philly’s defense is a problem right now. And the Eagles have trailed at halftime in six straight games.
This game might close -3 or -3.5, and I don’t have an edge even then.
Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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