National Football League

Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 8 odds

Updated Oct. 23, 2023 6:51 p.m. ET

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Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week's NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we've got you covered.

Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz (GS), Sam Panayotovich (SP) and Jason McIntyre (JM) will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.

So, without further ado, let's jump into their analysis for Week 8.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

SP: Too low

The Bills might be the most overrated team in the NFL, but they should still blast the Buccaneers on Thursday night in Orchard Park. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders

JM: Just right

There’s some reluctance to take a team off a big prime-time victory, especially against a team that nearly beat them last month. The biggest concern for the Eagles is the look-ahead spot with Dallas on deck next week.

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Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 

GS: Just right 

The Cardinals closed as near 10-point underdogs in Seattle this weekend and lost by 10, failing to cover for the fourth straight week. 

The Ravens are on the road after dismantling the Lions, and this just screams a let-down spot for Baltimore. 

I would imagine the Cardinals with points will be a sharp favorite this weekend, just like the Jets hosting the Eagles and the Browns against the 49ers two weekends ago. Those home 'dogs get feisty. 

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-11) 

SP: Just right

The early money will show for the Patriots due to Sunday’s upset over Buffalo, but this is a dangerous spot against a Dolphins squad that can actually pummel bad teams. 

Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) @ Denver Broncos 

GS: Too high

The Chiefs rarely cover these big spreads on the road, and it’s not because they aren’t good enough; they just take it easy in these games. 

The Chiefs are 6-1, their offense is improving, and they have an outstanding defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season. 

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The Broncos are the Broncos. Simply put, Denver is a flawed team that just earned its second win of the season against the Packers. 

These teams just met with a 19-8 Chiefs victory in Week 6, but look for this game to be closer. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

SP: Too low

Lay this number early in this week before it climbs to -3. Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence gets three extra days of rest to nurse that ailing knee. 

Chicago Bears @ LA Chargers (-9.5)

JM: Too low

The public will come in on the Bag Man and the Bears after a convincing win over the lowly Raiders. 

The Chargers were one of my first bets this week. They are in a great spot here, going from playing the best team in the NFL (Chiefs) to one of the worst. This was -10 on the look-ahead line and adjusted down after L.A.'s loss to Kansas City.

New York Jets @ New York Giants (-2.5)

JM: Too low

The Jets have a defense that has forced Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts into their worst games of the season. Now they face Tyrod Taylor, who is sparking a laughable QB controversy for the Giants. 

This should close at -3, which is where it was last week.

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco (-5.5)

GS: Just right

I can be convinced this is a tad too high. At the time of writing, we haven’t seen the 49ers play the Vikings without Deebo Samuel and a beat-up Christian McCaffrey. 

The 49ers offense is different without them, and they will be on a short week hosting the Bengals, who are off a bye. 

The Bengals offense finally looks back on track with Joe Burrow’s calf injury improving. Now he’s had two weeks to rest, and the Bengals should move the ball against the 49ers. 

The Bengals are a dangerous team when Burrow is healthy.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tennessee Titans

JM: Too low

We don’t know who the Titans QB will be, and the Falcons are only favored by one point?

If you dive deep into the stats, the Falcons offense has gone for over 400 yards each of the last three games. Can it solve its red zone woes?

Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys (-6)

GS: Too High

The Dallas Cowboys feast on bad quarterbacks, beating and covering the likes of Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones. The results are not the same when they’ve played a competent offense — a 32-point loss to the 49ers and a three-point win against the Chargers. 

The Rams aren’t a deep team, but they are good at quarterback and a well-coached unit, both things the Cowboys struggle with.

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) 

SP: Just right

Literally, flip a coin. These two teams are about equal on a neutral field, so we give Indianapolis a slight edge at home. I wouldn’t bet this with your money. 

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Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) 

SP: Too high

Sharp money hit Seattle right out of the gate, and I understand it. But I’m happy to take the better defense, getting a full field goal. Myles Garrett is the best player on the field. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-1.5)

GS: Just right

This is a coin-flip game at best, with two teams who will be desperate for a win. At the time of writing this piece, the Vikings and Packers both have two wins, with the Vikings at -6 point differential and the Packers at -2. 

The Vikings are better at quarterback but limited without Justin Jefferson, while the Packers are just meh on offense but decent on defense. 

Houston Texans (-3) @ Carolina Panthers

GS: Just right

Carolina has no home-field advantage, and the Texans are a field goal better than the Panthers on a neutral field. Both teams are off a bye, with the Texans feeling good about their first six weeks. They have three wins, and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is playing well. 

The Texans are 17th in DVOA, while the 0-6 Panthers rank 31st. 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)

GS: Too low

This line will close much higher by the time of kickoff on Monday night. The Lions got embarrassed against the Ravens on Sunday, and a team coached by Dan Campbell will come roaring back this weekend against an awful Raiders team.

The Raiders stink and will get blown out in Detroit. 

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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