National Football League

Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 9 odds

Updated Oct. 30, 2023 2:34 p.m. ET

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Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week's NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we've got you covered.

Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz (GS), Sam Panayotovich (SP) and Jason McIntyre (JM) will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.

So, without further ado, let's jump into their analysis for Week 9.

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)

JM: Too low

The dropoff from Kirk Cousins to fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall is worth at least seven points. Cousins, for all his warts, was playing like a Top 10 QB by virtually every metric. The Falcons have their own QB questions, but playing at home, this should be closer to a TD.

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

SP: Too low

Weird things happen in these overseas games, but doesn’t this feel like a great buy-low spot on the Chiefs under a field goal? This will probably move to -3 by Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

SP: Too low

I expect Matthew Stafford’s injured thumb to keep him out of this one. That means the Rams will likely turn to backup Brett Rypien in 40-degree weather. Good luck.

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Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

GS: Just right

This number accounts for a slight home-field edge for Pittsburgh on a short week for the Titans. We have a rookie QB for Tennessee making his first start against the Steelers defense. 

I don’t see much of a difference in the line whether Kenny Pickett or Mitch Trubisky is in the lineup.

Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots (-3)

SP: Just right

Oddsmakers continue to give Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt against young quarterbacks, but Mac Jones continues to disappoint. Pass.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (-2.5)

JM: Too high

The Texans have been favored twice this season and lost both times. A rookie QB with a rookie head coach shouldn’t be laying points. 

Let’s see if Tampa sells at the trade deadline and goes into this game in tank mode.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (-7.5)

GS: Just right

Arizona needed a late touchdown and an onside kick recovery that led to a field goal to cover nearly 10 points as a home dog against the Ravens. Otherwise, the Cardinals hadn’t covered in the month. 

The Browns appear fine with P.J. Walker at quarterback, but that is accounted for in the number.

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Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

SP: Too high

There aren’t many people higher on the Ravens than me. That said, the Seahawks have the receiver weapons to score on Baltimore’s secondary. Take the points.

Indianapolis Colts (2.5) @ Carolina Panthers 

GS: Just right

Division opponent Houston was a 3/3.5-point favorite in Carolina last weekend, so this line feels right. The Panthers are coming off a win, while the Colts are off a loss. The Colts are better than the Texans and the Panthers winning doesn’t change their outlook.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

SP: Just right

There’s not a big drop-off from Justin Fields to Tyson Bagent. Both guys will struggle against this stingy Saints defense. But I’m not laying a touchdown with Derek Carr.

New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3)

JM: Too low

Not even seeing how Jimmy G does against the Lions, I can say this feels light, given the fact that the Giants QB situation is even worse. If Tommy Devito starts, this has to push above the three, right?

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

JM: Just right

The public will come in on Dallas after a romp of the Rams. The Eagles tough defense may be without star DT Jalen Carter, who suffered a back injury last week. And Jalen Hurts only had two designed runs vs Washington, so how healthy is his knee?

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2)

GS: Just right

This number is not getting to 3 because sharps will hammer the Bills getting three points in a game with two evenly matched teams.

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ New York Jets 

JM: Too high

The Chargers have run into problems with formidable defenses like the Chiefs and Cowboys this month. Now they face the Jets, who have forced Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts into their worst games of the season.

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