National Football League

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs on track for Super Bowl rematch

Updated Dec. 7, 2021 6:56 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

With five weeks left in the 2021 NFL regular season — a wild one that feels unlike any we’ve seen recently — the two teams favored to meet in Super Bowl LVI aren't a surprise at all.

In fact, we just saw this matchup 10 months ago.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs are now the wagering favorites to meet again on Feb. 13, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

How did we get here, and can anyone knock them off?

HOW DID THE BUCS GET HERE?

Like Tom Brady’s former team in New England, the Bucs seem to improve steadily as the weather turns from sun to shade. They spend the early part of the season figuring out their identity and then attack the back half of the schedule.

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At age 44, Brady is putting together another MVP season. (At this rate, he might play until he’s 50.) One big reason is that Tampa Bay has the best offensive line in the game. That statement might surprise some, but only those who haven’t been paying attention. The Bucs' line allows the least amount of pressure and ranks first in adjusted line yards in the running game.

When you give Brady time, he will pick apart a defense, especially with the weapons Tampa Bay has on the perimeter. It’s a perfect setup for Brady and the Bucs.

On defense, Tampa Bay has dealt with injuries that have hampered the team’s pass coverage, which still ranks eighth in efficiency. We already know the Bucs have an excellent defensive line, featuring Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh, a trio that has 16 collective sacks. The line hasn’t rushed the passer at the same level as last season but can get after it when needed.

What really makes the Bucs' defense so tough to play against is that it forces offenses to pass simply because it’s not worth rushing the ball. Tampa Bay is elite at stopping the run, so opponents don’t even try.

In theory, it’s easier to be successful when you know what the opponent is doing.

WHO CAN STOP THE BUCS?

The NFC won’t be easy to win, but where else are you putting your money? On the Arizona Cardinals? With the best record in the NFL at 10-2, the Cards are playing well and deserve to be mentioned as NFC favorites. They have won several games despite injuries to quarterback Kyler Murray and running back Chase Edmonds, among others.

However, no one trusts coach Kliff Kingsbury to finish a season strong, as he has yet to do so in his career. In fact, Arizona's victory Sunday guaranteed Kingsbury his first winning season since 2015, when he coached at Texas Tech.

The Packers will have a say in the NFC as well, but we saw this matchup in the previous NFC Championship. Even if the Packers host the Bucs again in the playoffs, can Green Bay finally win the NFC after two straight years of losing the conference title game?

Give me the Bucs.

HOW DID THE CHIEFS GET HERE?

The Chiefs were 3-4 after seven weeks, and their obituary was only a few lines from being finished. Now, after rattling off five consecutive wins for the ninth straight season, an NFL record, Andy Reid's team has roared back into Super Bowl contention.

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Kansas City has made this midseason turnaround not because of its offense but, surprisingly, because of its defense. It's even more surprising when you consider that the defense was on pace to be one of the worst units in NFL history.

How did things turn around? The Chiefs got some injured players back. The staff moved defensive tackle Chris Jones back inside, gave fewer reps to safety Daniel Sorensen and stopped all the man-to-man coverage. And it has paid off: The Chiefs have been far better on third downs, moving up to 10th in the league in opponents’ conversion percentage. They are getting more pressure and allowing fewer points.

The defense has been vital to the turnaround because the offense is still inconsistent. During the five-game winning streak, the offense has scored more than 20 points in only one of those games, a 41-14 victory over the Raiders.

The most frustrating part is that there are times when the K.C. offense looks to be humming along like it has done for years. The Chiefs rank sixth in offensive efficiency, with a predicted finish of fifth for the season, according to Football Outsiders.

However, the offense often stalls due to poor plays, mental errors and a lack of confidence. There are way too many drops — drops that lead to interceptions — poor ball placement by Patrick Mahomes when using less-than-ideal technique, holding penalties and other errors. These mistakes have taken the juice out of this offense. Still, a good game — or even a good half — could get it back on track.

When the offense starts clicking again, watch out, AFC.

WHO CAN STOP THE CHIEFS?

Other than the Patriots, who are now 9-4 and hold the No. 1 seed, the rest of the conference seems to be falling apart. And the Pats have a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones. I need to see it happen in the playoffs before I believe it.

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As for the rest of the AFC, the Patriots just embarrassed the Bills, who fell to 7-5. The Ravens are physically falling apart, the Browns are just OK, the Bengals aren’t ready for the spotlight, and the Steelers have an old, immobile quarterback. The AFC South doesn’t scare anyone. The Titans are completely beat up, and the Colts have Carson Wentz, whom I trust zero percent in the playoffs.

Give me the Chiefs to win the AFC.

See you at SoFi for Bucs-Chiefs.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.