Super Bowl 2022 Odds: 10 betting trends you should know for the Big Game
The Super Bowl is finally here! And when it comes to gambling on the Big Game, we have you covered from a trends point of view.
FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into wagering on the Super Bowl, looking at various angles and trends that have historically been profitable.
After wading through the data, here are the 10 best overall trends that caught our attention. These trends should help you make informed wagers, but more importantly, they'll make watching the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Los Angeles Rams a little more exciting.
So, what are we waiting for? Let’s get into the trends!
1. Since the 2010 season (2011 Super Bowl), teams that are underdogs of four points or more in the Super Bowl are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) and 3-0 straight up (SU)
The Cincinnati Bengals are currently 4.5-point underdogs at FOX Bet against the Los Angeles Rams despite taking down the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs as underdogs. Could we see another upset on Sunday? It’s not that unlikely.
Here’s some food for thought: The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and 7-3 ATS against teams who finished this season with nine or more wins.
2. Teams that score first in the Super Bowl have won the game 65% of the time
This is a staggering number that jumped off the page. It should be noted that the Chiefs did score first last year and the 49ers the year before that. However, from 2011-19, all but one of the teams that scored first in the game went on to win. Additionally, 29 of the first 45 Super Bowls saw the team that scored first go on to win.
The lone team in that span to not score first and win? The Patriots in 2017, who were down 28-3 in the third quarter but still managed to get a W.
On a side note, live betting has become a fun way to wager on games. Might be the way to go if you like this trend.
3. Betting on the winner in the Super Bowl more often than not directly results in a cover against the spread.
Teams that win the Super Bowl are 47-6-2 ATS in the game, covering at an 85% clip
This might sound obvious, but in the gambling world, any bet that hits over 60% is stellar. But 80%? That is unheard of, so if you’re confident in who will win the game, bet them to cover as well!
4. Sean McVay will be the 25th coach all-time to make at least two Super Bowls; coaches with multiple Super Bowl appearances are 12-11-1 ATS and 15-9 SU in their second Super Bowl
Despite the 63% win rate straight up, the cover percentage is only about 50%, which adds more fuel to the Bengals' fire.
5. The Rams have been a home favorite 40 times under Sean McVay. In those games, the under hit 26 times (regular season and playoffs)
McVay has been heralded as an offensive mastermind since his debut in 2017, but playing at home has not produced a ton of points for him and the Rams. The under is hitting at a 65% rate when the Rams are home favorites under McVay.
6. Cincinnati's coach Zac Taylor is 14-8 ATS and 6-15-1 SU as a road underdog in his career (regular season and playoffs), with the under hitting in 16 of those games
Similar to our first note, this data points towards the Bengals covering at 4.5. To be fair, most of Taylor's covers as a road underdog came this season with a healthy Joe Burrow, as the Bengals went 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU as road underdogs this season (playoffs included).
Burrow is 8-4 ATS and 5-6-1 SU as a road underdog in his career (regular season and playoffs).
7. Since the 1999 season (2000 Super Bowl), there have been 11 instances of a coach who has coached in a Super Bowl before going up against a coach who has not. In those 11 instances, the coach with Super Bowl experience went 3-7-1 ATS and 6-5 SU
Experience matters right? Not so much over the last 20 years when considering the spread. The coach with Super Bowl experience has lost 5 of 11 games versus coaches making their first big dance, and they cover at just 27% in that span. Super Bowl LVI will be McVay's second time coaching the game and Taylor's first.
8. Since the 1999 season (2000 Super Bowl), there have been seven instances in which both Super Bowl quarterbacks are making their first Super Bowl appearance. In those games, the favorite went 4-2-1 ATS and 5-2 SU
Matthew Stafford turned 34-years-old during Super Bowl week and will be the 16th quarterback all-time to play in a Super Bowl at least 34 years of age. Burrow, on the other hand, is 25 years old and will be the 13th quarterback all-time to play in a Super Bowl at 25 or younger.
The last time we saw a Super Bowl with both quarterbacks making their first appearance in the game was 2020 — when Patrick Mahomes won and covered as a favorite against Jimmy Garoppolo. The time before that was in 2012 when Joe Flacco won and covered as an underdog against Colin Kaepernick.
9. Favorites are 70-54-3 ATS and 97-30 SU in games in which Ron Torbert is the head referee (regular season and playoffs)
This will be Ron Torbert’s first Super Bowl as an official, so we took a look at the results in games he’s refereed historically. The under has hit in 52% of the games in which Torbert has been the referee, and home teams are 44-62 (41.5%) when Torbert is the ref.
Historically, favorites are 16-15-1 ATS and 19-13 SU when the main referee is officiating his first Super Bowl all-time.
10. Twenty-five teams have won both the coin flip and the game all-time in the Super Bowl. In the last seven Super Bowls, the team that has won the toss has lost the game
Only 45% of teams all-time have won the Super Bowl after winning the coin toss. Just another thing to keep in mind if you want to throw in a live bet.
The winner of the coin flip has had an unlucky seven-year stretch of losing the game. Will the streak increase to eight this year?
Now that you have a rundown of the best betting trends for Super Bowl LVI, head over to FOX Bet and get your wagers in for the Big Game!
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