National Football League

Julio Jones trade still doesn't make the Tennessee Titans AFC contenders

Updated Jun. 7, 2021 11:58 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The Julio Jones sweepstakes are over.

The Atlanta Falcons traded the seven-time All-Pro wide receiver to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday in exchange for a modest package of draft picks that did not include a first-rounder.

NFL social media channels were abuzz, immediately elevating the Titans to contender status in the AFC. But while Jones is certainly an important addition, we need to pump the brakes.

I like to be the voice of reason, which does not make me a favorite for plenty of fan bases around the league. And now I’m here to explore whether this trade moves the Titans any closer to being contenders.

Last season, the Titans won the AFC South and lost on wild-card weekend to the visiting Baltimore Ravens. The Titans' offense finished fourth in DVOA, ranking fourth in passing and second in rushing.

Tennessee's downfall was on defense (though not in the playoff game), as the Titans ranked dead last in both pressure rate and third-down defense. Even with the addition of Jones, I’m not sure how they will be any different in 2021.

There’s no doubt that the Titans' skill-position players are stacked after this deal. They have Derrick Henry at running back, fresh off a 2,000-yard season. They can pair A.J. Brown with Jones after losing Corey Davis in free agency.

However, they don’t have excellent depth outside of those three players. Their offensive line is great on the left side but just average everywhere else. This isn't an offense as talented on the whole as that of the Chiefs, Bills or Browns, three teams the Titans would need to beat to win the AFC.

The biggest addition or subtraction from the Titans this offseason was offensive coordinator Arthur Smith leaving to take the head-coaching job in Atlanta. Smith was fantastic in his role as the Titans' playcaller, transforming Ryan Tannehill into an above-average quarterback.

The offense relied on running the ball, ranking second in rushing attempts and 30th in pass attempts last season, fueling a fantastic play-action passing game. Tannehill averaged nearly 10 yards per pass and completed 8% more passes via play-action. With Smith leaving, there’s concern about this style of offense being as effective with a defensive-minded head coach who tends to be conservative with playcalling.

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Granted, it’s not like Tannehill will forget how to play the position, but a new playcaller could sequence plays differently. He might not be as efficient in knowing when to use play-action passes. He could call fewer of them, he could install plays Tannehill isn’t as good at, etc.

Plenty could go wrong, including continuing to focus so much on the rushing attack, which is not an effective way to beat the Chiefs, as seen in the 2019 AFC Championship Game. Unless drives end in touchdowns, rushing the ball only shortens the game for the team that can’t score enough to beat Kansas City.

As I mentioned above, the Titans' defense was atrocious last season, and that might be putting it kindly.

Tennessee improved its defense by adding two secondary pieces early in the draft, including a steal with Elijah Molden. But the Titans did not address their pass rush outside of acquiring Denico Autry, an eight-year veteran coming off some good seasons in Indianapolis, but he isn't scaring anyone.

While I do like the additions of the young cornerbacks and veteran Janoris Jenkins, how much better will the Titans be with the young guys learning the game? Do you trust this defense to slow down the Chiefs enough to make that game close? I sure don’t.

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The last way — and maybe the best way — to check the impact of a trade such as this is to see whether the wise guys cared at all. They did not. The Titans' win total did not change. It’s still sitting at 9 or 9.5, which is hardly the number of a team Vegas believes is winning the title.

Tennessee's odds to win the conference and division hardly moved, signaling that Vegas does not believe this trade significantly improved the team.

While the Jones trade brings an upgrade on what the Titans had on the roster, it doesn’t get them closer to winning the Super Bowl.

The offense will finish no higher than its numbers under Smith, and there’s nothing about that defense that can be trusted.

The hierarchy of the AFC remains the same, with Kansas City, Buffalo and Cleveland the favorites.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.