By Justin Kelly
Sports analysts consistently make bad predictions. With a few notable exceptions, sports analysts make predictions that come true about as often as predictions that don't. In other words, their predictive capacity is the same as a coin flip's. When it comes to the Oakland Raiders, it looks like I might have been better off flipping said coin. My preseason prediction (6-10 record) for this team will almost certainly miss the mark. Oakland, now 4-4 after a hard-fought 38-35 loss to Pittsburgh, has gotten much stronger as a team. Here's why:
1) Derek Carr has improved.
It was widely understood that Carr's play would substantially impact the Raiders' offensive performance. Under Del Rio's aggressive style, many expected him to improve somewhat, but his progress has exceeded these expectations. Last year, his QBR was 38.2, third to last in the league (per ESPN). He's shot up this year to 65.8 (through seven games), which puts him at 12th overall.
Other advanced metrics make Carr look even better. Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), which provides a snapshot of a QB's total value, has Carr at fourth in league. His Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), which targets his value per play, is third in the league. In 2014, he ended the year ranked 41st and 34th of 44 QBs with 100 passes or more in these two categories.
On the classic stats Carr also looks good. Through eight games, Carr has completed about 64 percent of his passes for 19 TDs and four picks. He's on pace to throw for 4,000 yards.
What accounts for this improvement? Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave attributes it to Carr's better decision-making. Last year, he threw 12 picks, but this year is on pace for only eight. Moreover, Carr seems to be adapting to NFL defenses on the fly; he's more confident at the line of scrimmage, which helps him see impending blitzes. But perhaps the biggest factors to Carr's improvement are outside of his control...
2) Free agency is paying off on offense and (especially) defense.
The Raiders have drafted decent weapons for Carr. WR Amari Cooper was the fan favorite for big play targets, but 2015 has seen the rise of the Crabman (WR Michael Crabtree).
Through seven games, Crabtree had been targeted 10 more times than Cooper, had four fewer drops, and as many TDs. Together, these two receivers account for more than half of all total receiving yards. Without Crabtree though, Cooper could be the victim of double coverage and essentially taken out of the game (and vice versa). This duo has paid dividends for the Oakland's passing attack, which is in the top 10 for total passing yards. Carr himself acknowledged the help: "I would love for Crab to be here for a long time."
As this Bleacher Report article outlines, it's not just Crabtree who's paying off. My biggest concern for the Raiders in 2015 was their defense. Khalil Mack obviously draws a lot of attention, but beyond his presence, I couldn't see why Ken Norton Jr.'s squad should intimidate anybody.
Enter Malcolm Smith. He leads the Raiders with 47 total tackles and has taken a leadership role on defense. His potential was highlighted by his 2014 Super Bowl MVP, and now he's realizing that potential as a force in the middle. Defensive coordinator Norton has noticed the difference: “In the old days, Malcolm would not speak a word. Now he’s running the defense. He has the microphone in his helmet and he’s telling everybody the play now. It’s amazing to see the growth.”
Meanwhile, DT Dan Williams has solidified Oakland's front seven, David Amerson has bolstered an active secondary, and Aldon Smith has helped stop the run. All in all, the Raiders' defense isn't as scary as, say, Denver's, but it is operating around the median for defensive DVOA (ranked 15th through seven weeks). That's all the Raiders need. Their offense, ranked fifth by Football Outsiders' Weighted Offense, can carry them.
So how good will the Raiders be in the last eight games?
Carr is enjoying his sophomore surge. The defense has filled its holes and looks strong. The Raiders are 4-4, but have played well enough to be 5-3 (per Football Outsiders' Estimated Wins). Their remaining schedule, by DVOA, is easier than what they've seen already (.7% < 3.3%). The Raiders might just be on the playoff bubble, but they’ll have to play even better to make it. I see this team finishing at 9-7, with solid potential for next year. For the sake of Raider nation, I hope this prediction is better than my preseason one.
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